Agent skill

Stablecoin Flow Analysis

by HKUDS in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading

Reads crypto market liquidity from stablecoin supply changes, USDT and USDC mint and burn events, exchange reserves and velocity, to time capital rotation.

MITAuto-check passedBusiness, Finance & HR

Install Stablecoin Flow Analysis

skills CLI
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading stablecoin-flow --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/stablecoin-flow .claude/skills/stablecoin-flow && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
stablecoin-flow
GitHub stars
35k
Token cost
~2.5k tokens
SKILL.md length
558 words
Files
1
Skills in repo
89
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Reads crypto market liquidity from stablecoin supply changes, USDT and USDC mint and burn events, exchange reserves and velocity, to time capital rotation.

  • Works in 7 steps: Stablecoin Supply as Market Indicator → Mint/Burn Event Analysis → Exchange Stablecoin Reserves → …
  • Judging whether new capital is entering or leaving the crypto market
  • SKILL.md covers Overview, Core Concepts, Data Sources and Output Format, plus 1 more section
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

This skill treats stablecoins as the cash waiting to enter crypto: minting suggests new capital arriving, burning suggests capital leaving, and rising balances on exchanges point to buying intent. It reads the change in total stablecoin supply over a 30-day window against bands that run from rapid growth to contraction, and links that supply to Bitcoin price.

Separate sections cover USDT and USDC mint and burn events, with USDC read as institutional money and a rising USDC to USDT ratio as a sign of institutional participation, and exchange stablecoin reserves read against Bitcoin price action. Short Python functions sketch the mint-burn and reserve-change signals. The excerpt is cut off before the material on on-chain velocity and capital rotation indicators that the description promises.

When your agent uses it

  • Judging whether new capital is entering or leaving the crypto market
  • Interpreting a large USDT mint or a USDC burn event
  • Reading exchange stablecoin reserves alongside Bitcoin price moves
  • Looking for capital rotation signals to help time crypto entries

Example prompts

  • “Has total stablecoin supply grown over the last month, and what does that say about crypto liquidity?”
  • “Tether just minted a large batch of USDT. What does the mint-burn signal say?”
  • “Compare USDC and USDT net minting this week and tell me whether institutional money is entering.”

Workflow steps

7 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.

  1. Stablecoin Supply as Market Indicator
  2. Mint/Burn Event Analysis
  3. Exchange Stablecoin Reserves
  4. Stablecoin Dominance
  5. On-Chain Stablecoin Velocity
  6. Chain-Level Stablecoin Distribution
  7. Composite Stablecoin Signal

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit e532650. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are python).

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Stablecoin Flow Analysis loads about 2.5k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 50 tokens; SKILL.md has 558 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~50
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~2.5k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading at commit e532650, republished under its MIT licence (© HKUDS). 558 words, ~2,495 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/stablecoin-flow/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).
name
stablecoin-flow
description
Stablecoin supply and flow analysis — USDT/USDC mint-burn signals, exchange stablecoin reserves, on-chain stablecoin velocity, and capital rotation indicators for crypto market timing.
category
crypto

Stablecoin Flow Analysis

Overview

Track stablecoin supply changes, exchange reserve movements, and on-chain velocity to gauge crypto market capital flows. Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, etc.) are the "dry powder" of crypto — minting signals new capital entering, burning signals capital leaving, and exchange reserve changes reveal buying/selling intent.

Core Concepts

1. Stablecoin Supply as Market Indicator

Total stablecoin market cap is the single best proxy for crypto market liquidity.

python
# Stablecoin supply growth → crypto market liquidity expansion
# Historical correlation: BTC price and total stablecoin supply r > 0.85

stablecoin_supply = {
    "USDT": 140_000_000_000,    # ~$140B (dominant, ~65% share)
    "USDC": 45_000_000_000,     # ~$45B (~20% share)
    "DAI": 5_000_000_000,       # ~$5B (decentralized)
    "FDUSD": 3_000_000_000,     # ~$3B (Binance ecosystem)
    "USDS": 2_000_000_000,      # ~$2B (Sky/MakerDAO)
}
total = sum(stablecoin_supply.values())

Supply change signals:

Supply Change (30d)InterpretationSignal
> +5%Rapid minting, new capital rushing inStrong bullish
+2% to +5%Steady capital inflowBullish
0% to +2%Stable, no significant new capitalNeutral
-2% to 0%Mild redemptionsCautious
< -2%Capital exiting crypto ecosystemBearish
2. Mint/Burn Event Analysis

USDT (Tether) minting signals:

  • Tether mints new USDT → deposits to exchanges → precedes buying activity
  • Large mints ($500M+) historically precede BTC rallies by 1-7 days
  • Minting often happens in batches: "pre-mint to Tether treasury" → later distributed to exchanges

USDC (Circle) signals:

  • USDC is more regulated and institutional-oriented
  • USDC net minting = institutional/TradFi capital entering
  • USDC net burning = institutional capital exiting (redeeming for USD)
  • USDC/USDT ratio rising = more institutional participation (bullish for market maturity)
python
def mint_burn_signal(mint_events, burn_events, lookback_days=7):
    """Analyze recent stablecoin mint/burn events."""
    net_mint = sum(e.amount for e in mint_events if e.days_ago <= lookback_days)
    net_burn = sum(e.amount for e in burn_events if e.days_ago <= lookback_days)
    net_flow = net_mint - net_burn

    if net_flow > 1_000_000_000:    # >$1B net mint in 7 days
        return "large_capital_inflow"
    elif net_flow > 500_000_000:
        return "moderate_inflow"
    elif net_flow > 0:
        return "mild_inflow"
    elif net_flow > -500_000_000:
        return "mild_outflow"
    else:
        return "large_capital_outflow"
3. Exchange Stablecoin Reserves

Stablecoins on exchanges = "buy power sitting on the sidelines"

python
# Exchange stablecoin reserve interpretation
def exchange_reserve_signal(reserve_change_7d_pct, total_reserve_usd):
    """
    Rising exchange stablecoin reserves = buying power accumulating
    Falling exchange stablecoin reserves = capital deployed or withdrawn
    """
    if reserve_change_7d_pct > 5:
        return "buy_power_accumulating"     # Dry powder building up
    elif reserve_change_7d_pct > 2:
        return "mild_accumulation"
    elif reserve_change_7d_pct < -5:
        return "deployed_or_withdrawn"       # Either bought crypto or left exchange
    elif reserve_change_7d_pct < -2:
        return "mild_deployment"
    else:
        return "stable"

Combined with BTC price action:

Exchange Stable ReservesBTC Price ActionInterpretation
RisingRisingCapital inflow + active buying = strong bull
RisingFallingCapital parking, waiting for bottom = accumulation
FallingRisingCapital being deployed into BTC = buying pressure
FallingFallingCapital leaving exchanges entirely = risk-off
4. Stablecoin Dominance

Stablecoin dominance = total stablecoin market cap / total crypto market cap

python
# Stablecoin dominance as a contrarian indicator
stablecoin_dominance = total_stablecoin_mcap / total_crypto_mcap * 100

if stablecoin_dominance > 12:
    signal = "high_cash_allocation"      # Market fearful, lots of cash on sidelines
    contrarian = "bullish"               # Cash will eventually re-enter
elif stablecoin_dominance > 8:
    signal = "moderate_cash"
    contrarian = "neutral"
elif stablecoin_dominance < 5:
    signal = "low_cash_allocation"       # Market fully invested, little dry powder
    contrarian = "bearish"               # No marginal buyers left
5. On-Chain Stablecoin Velocity

Velocity = on-chain transfer volume / supply

High velocity = stablecoins are being actively used (trading, DeFi, payments) Low velocity = stablecoins are sitting idle (holding, waiting)

python
def velocity_signal(transfer_volume_7d, supply):
    velocity = transfer_volume_7d / supply
    velocity_annualized = velocity * 52  # Weekly to annual

    if velocity_annualized > 50:
        return "high_activity"     # Very active usage, likely bull market
    elif velocity_annualized > 20:
        return "moderate_activity"
    elif velocity_annualized < 10:
        return "low_activity"      # Stablecoins idle, bear market / accumulation
6. Chain-Level Stablecoin Distribution

Track where stablecoins are flowing across different blockchains:

ChainPrimary StablecoinsWhat Inflows Signal
EthereumUSDT, USDC, DAIDeFi activity, institutional usage
TronUSDT (dominant)OTC trading, emerging market transfers
SolanaUSDCHigh-frequency DeFi, memecoin activity
ArbitrumUSDC, USDTL2 DeFi growth
BaseUSDCCoinbase ecosystem growth
BSCUSDT, FDUSDBinance ecosystem, retail trading

Cross-chain flow signals:

  • USDT migrating from Tron → Ethereum: capital moving from OTC/P2P to DeFi (more sophisticated usage)
  • Stablecoins flooding into Solana: memecoin season / speculative frenzy
  • Stablecoins moving to L2s (Arbitrum, Base, Optimism): DeFi activity shifting to lower-cost chains
Show full SKILL.md (177 more words)Show less
7. Composite Stablecoin Signal
python
stablecoin_score = {
    "supply_growth": 0,           # -2 to +2: 30-day total supply change
    "mint_burn_net": 0,           # -2 to +2: recent large mint/burn events
    "exchange_reserves": 0,       # -2 to +2: exchange stablecoin reserve change
    "dominance": 0,               # -2 to +2: stablecoin dominance level (contrarian)
    "velocity": 0,                # -2 to +2: on-chain activity level
}
# Total range: -10 to +10
# > +5: strong liquidity expansion → bullish for crypto
# +2 to +5: moderate inflow → mild bullish
# -2 to +2: neutral
# < -2: liquidity contraction → bearish
# < -5: capital flight → strong bearish

Data Sources

SourceAccessData Available
DeFi Llama (Stablecoins page)FreeTotal supply by chain, mint/burn history
GlassnodePaid (limited free)Exchange reserves, on-chain velocity
CryptoQuantPaid (limited free)Exchange stablecoin reserves, flow metrics
Tether TransparencyFreeUSDT reserves and attestation
Circle USDC StatsFreeUSDC supply and redemption data
Dune AnalyticsFreeCustom stablecoin queries
NansenPaidSmart money stablecoin flows

Use read_url tool to access web-based data sources.

Output Format

## Stablecoin Flow Analysis — [Date Range]

### Supply Overview
| Stablecoin | Supply | 7d Change | 30d Change |
|------------|--------|-----------|------------|
| USDT | $XXX B | +X.X% | +X.X% |
| USDC | $XX B | +X.X% | +X.X% |
| Total | $XXX B | +X.X% | +X.X% |

### Mint/Burn Events (7 days)
- **Net minting**: +$X.X B
- **Largest events**: [Tether minted $500M on DATE, Circle burned $200M on DATE]
- **Signal**: [large capital inflow / mild / outflow]

### Exchange Reserves
- **Total stablecoins on exchanges**: $XX B
- **7d change**: [+/- X.X%]
- **Interpretation**: [buy power accumulating / deployed / withdrawn]

### Stablecoin Dominance
- **Current**: X.X%
- **30d ago**: X.X%
- **Signal**: [high cash = contrarian bullish / low cash = contrarian bearish]

### Chain Distribution Shifts
- **Inflow chains**: [Solana +$XM, Arbitrum +$XM]
- **Outflow chains**: [Tron -$XM]
- **Interpretation**: [DeFi expansion / speculative activity / capital consolidation]

### Composite Signal
| Dimension | Score (-2~+2) | Basis |
|-----------|---------------|-------|
| Supply growth | +2 | +4% in 30 days |
| Mint/burn | +1 | Net $1.2B minted this week |
| Exchange reserves | +1 | Reserves up 3% |
| Dominance | 0 | 8.5%, neutral range |
| Velocity | +1 | Rising on-chain activity |

### Market Implication
- **Liquidity outlook**: [expanding / stable / contracting]
- **Direction**: [bullish / neutral / bearish]
- **Key watch**: [next large mint event, USDC/USDT ratio trend]

Notes

  • Stablecoin supply data is publicly verifiable on-chain; it is one of the most transparent indicators in crypto
  • USDT on Tron is heavily used for OTC and P2P trading in emerging markets; it does not necessarily correlate with exchange trading activity
  • "Pre-minting" by Tether (minting to Tether treasury before distributing) creates false positive signals; track only exchange-deployed mints
  • Stablecoin depegging events (e.g., USDC in March 2023) create temporary but severe market disruptions
  • Regulatory actions on stablecoin issuers (BUSD shutdown, USDC regulatory clarity) can trigger supply shifts between stablecoins
  • This framework is for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice

© HKUDS, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

Just SKILL.md in agent/src/skills/stablecoin-flow of HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.

Open the folder on GitHubat commit e532650

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Questions about Stablecoin Flow Analysis

What does Stablecoin Flow Analysis do?

Reads crypto market liquidity from stablecoin supply changes, USDT and USDC mint and burn events, exchange reserves and velocity, to time capital rotation. This skill treats stablecoins as the cash waiting to enter crypto: minting suggests new capital arriving, burning suggests capital leaving, and rising balances on exchanges point to buying intent. It reads the change in total stablecoin supply over a 30-day window against bands that run from rapid growth to contraction, and links that supply to Bitcoin price.

When should I use Stablecoin Flow Analysis?

Stablecoin Flow Analysis fits situations like: judging whether new capital is entering or leaving the crypto market; interpreting a large USDT mint or a USDC burn event; reading exchange stablecoin reserves alongside Bitcoin price moves; looking for capital rotation signals to help time crypto entries.

How do I install Stablecoin Flow Analysis in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/stablecoin-flow in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .claude/skills/stablecoin-flow in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Stablecoin Flow Analysis in Codex?

Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/stablecoin-flow in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .agents/skills/stablecoin-flow in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Stablecoin Flow Analysis in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill stablecoin-flow -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/stablecoin-flow, .gemini/skills/stablecoin-flow, .github/skills/stablecoin-flow and .opencode/skills/stablecoin-flow in your project.

What does Stablecoin Flow Analysis need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Stablecoin Flow Analysis is instructions for the agent only.

Does Stablecoin Flow Analysis access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Stablecoin Flow Analysis safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Stablecoin Flow Analysis use?

Stablecoin Flow Analysis is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Stablecoin Flow Analysis use?

About 2.5k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 10k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Stablecoin Flow Analysis?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Stablecoin Flow Analysis: Predexon Prediction Market Data (BlockRunAI/ClawRouter, 6.6k stars), Futu OpenAPI Market and Trading Assistant (qusong0627/QuantMind, 1.7k stars), A-Share Daily Review (qusong0627/QuantMind, 1.7k stars) and Senpi Market Pulse (Senpi-ai/senpi-skills, 134 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Stablecoin Flow Analysis?

HKUDS (a GitHub organization) maintains it in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, which has 35,043 GitHub stars. The repository holds 89 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 8, 2026.

Source: HKUDS/Vibe-Trading on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.