Agent skill

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter

by HKUDS in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading

Breaks a structural trend such as AI infrastructure into its physical supply chain and ranks lesser-known listed companies sitting on each bottleneck.

MITAuto-check passedBusiness, Finance & HR

Install Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter

skills CLI
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill bottleneck-hunter -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading bottleneck-hunter --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/bottleneck-hunter .claude/skills/bottleneck-hunter && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
bottleneck-hunter
GitHub stars
35k
Token cost
~2.7k tokens
SKILL.md length
1,000 words
Files
1
Skills in repo
89
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Breaks a structural trend such as AI infrastructure into its physical supply chain and ranks lesser-known listed companies sitting on each bottleneck.

  • Works in 7 steps: Super-Trend Confirmation → Physical Supply-Chain Decomposition → Bottleneck Identification — Finding… → …
  • Finding lesser-known companies that benefit from a structural trend
  • SKILL.md covers Core Idea, Step 1: Super-Trend Confirmation, Step 2: Physical Supply-Chain… and Step 3: Bottleneck…, plus 6 more sections
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

You name a long-running trend, for example AI infrastructure, energy transition, defense modernization, semiconductor reshoring or the space economy, and the skill first checks that it qualifies: durable growth, real hardware demand, large global capex and demand growing faster than supply. It then breaks the trend into layers of the physical supply chain, treating widely watched core components as already priced in and focusing on second and third layer links such as optical modules, lasers, InP substrates, SOI wafers, IC substrates and specialty fiberglass.

Each link is scored on six scarcity criteria, starting with how concentrated the supplier base is. The skill description adds mandatory valuation gates (PS, PE and a safety margin) run through the financial_rigor tool, a Munger-style reverse check, and a ranked bottleneck opportunity board as the output. It relies on web search to verify the trend and to look for shortage, capacity-constraint and sole-source evidence.

When your agent uses it

  • Finding lesser-known companies that benefit from a structural trend
  • Decomposing an industry's supply chain down to component and material level
  • Scoring which supply-chain link is likely to run short first
  • Building a ranked bottleneck board from a trend such as energy transition

Example prompts

  • “Hunt for bottlenecks in the semiconductor reshoring supply chain and rank the companies behind them.”
  • “Decompose the space economy into its physical supply chain and show where capacity runs out first.”
  • “Which second-layer suppliers are hidden beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending?”

Requirements

  • Web search access
  • The financial_rigor tool for the valuation gates

Workflow steps

7 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.

  1. Super-Trend Confirmation
  2. Physical Supply-Chain Decomposition
  3. Bottleneck Identification — Finding "Choke Points"
  4. Company Screening — From Bottleneck to Tickers
  5. Cross-Validation — Don't Trust a Single Story
  6. Output — Bottleneck Opportunity Board
  7. Inventory Update — Maintain the Bottleneck Map

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit e532650. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter loads about 2.7k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 174 tokens; SKILL.md has 1,000 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~174
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~2.7k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading at commit e532650, republished under its MIT licence (© HKUDS). 1,000 words, ~2,695 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/bottleneck-hunter/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).
name
bottleneck-hunter
description
Supply-chain bottleneck arbitrage. Given a super-trend (AI infra, energy transition, defense, semiconductor reshoring, space economy), decompose its physical supply chain down to Layer 2/3 choke points (optics, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, IC substrates, probe cards, specialty fiberglass...) and surface under-the-radar listed companies sitting on each bottleneck. Scores each link on 6 scarcity criteria, applies mandatory valuation gates (PS/PE/safety-margin) via the financial_rigor tool, and Munger-style reverse-validates. Outputs a ranked bottleneck opportunity board. Use when the user wants hidden beneficiaries of a structural trend rather than already-priced leaders.
category
strategy

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter

Decompose a super-trend (user-specified, e.g. "AI infrastructure", "energy transition") into its physical supply chain and hunt for bottleneck-arbitrage opportunities.

Core Idea

Don't ask "which AI stock to buy" — ask "if this trend keeps expanding, which link runs out first?"

Traditional research chases leaders and known tracks. This skill inverts: start from the choke points of the physical supply chain and find companies nobody notices but that the whole industry must wait on when they run short.

The edge: Layer-1 bottlenecks (GPU, HBM, power) are already priced in. The real alpha is in Layer 2 and Layer 3 — optical modules, lasers, InP substrates, SOI wafers, epitaxy equipment, wafer-level test, IC substrates, specialty fiberglass.

Step 1: Super-Trend Confirmation

Trend Filter Criteria
CriterionRequirementHow to verify
Durability≥3-5 years of certain growthSearch industry forecasts, capex plans
PhysicalityNeeds real hardware/material/equipment buildDistinguish "software upgrade" from "physical expansion"
ScaleGlobal capex >$50B/yearSearch top players' capex guidance
AccelerationDemand growth > supply expansionCompare demand growth vs capacity plans

Use web_search to verify. Reference super-trends: AI infrastructure, energy transition (nuclear/grid/storage), defense modernization, semiconductor reshoring, space economy.

Step 2: Physical Supply-Chain Decomposition

Don't stop at concepts — decompose to physical entities.

Layer 0 (end): final product/service
Layer 1 (core component): already closely watched  → priced in, limited alpha
Layer 2 (sub-component/material): low attention, alpha-rich
Layer 3 (upstream equipment/raw material)
Layer 4 (infrastructure): power, cooling, land, talent, certifications
AI Infrastructure Example
Layer 0: AI model training/inference services
Layer 1: GPU/accelerators, HBM, servers, data centers
Layer 2 (focus zone):
  - Network interconnect: optical modules, fiber, switch ASICs, copper cables
  - Optical comms core: lasers (EML/VCSEL/CW), modulators, photodetectors
  - Semiconductor materials: InP substrates, GaAs substrates, SOI wafers, SiC substrates
  - Advanced packaging: CoWoS interposers, HBM TSV, ABF substrate film
  - PCB/substrate: high-frequency PCB, IC substrates, specialty fiberglass
  - Test: wafer-level test (probe cards), burn-in, ATE
  - Thermal/cooling: liquid cooling, CDU, immersion fluid
  - Power connection: busbars, UPS, distribution, transformers
Layer 3: epitaxy equipment (MOCVD/MBE), lithography/etch, high-purity metals (In/Ga/Ge), specialty gases, sputtering targets, certifications (MSA/Telcordia)
Layer 4: power (nuclear/gas/transmission), cooling water, data-center land/permits

For other trends, use web_search with queries like {trend} supply chain bottleneck, {trend} shortage critical component, {trend} capacity constraint, {trend} sole source supplier.

Step 3: Bottleneck Identification — Finding "Choke Points"

For each Layer 2-3 link, evaluate 6 criteria:

#CriterionQuestionScore
1Supply concentration≤3 global suppliers?🔴 ≤2 / 🟡 3-5 / 🟢 >5
2Expansion lead timeHow long to add capacity?🔴 >2y / 🟡 1-2y / 🟢 <1y
3SubstitutabilityCan other tech/material replace it?🔴 irreplaceable / 🟡 partial / 🟢 easy
4Capacity utilizationCurrent utilization?🔴 >90% / 🟡 70-90% / 🟢 <70%
5Demand growthDownstream demand growth?🔴 >50%/yr / 🟡 20-50% / 🟢 <20%
6Customer qualification cycleHow long for a new supplier to qualify?🔴 >1y / 🟡 6-12m / 🟢 <6m

Bottleneck grade: 🔴×≥4 → S-grade (single-point failure, highest priority); 🔴×3 → A-grade (severely constrained); 🔴×1-2 → B-grade (stressed but manageable); no 🔴 → not a bottleneck, skip.

Step 4: Company Screening — From Bottleneck to Tickers

For each S/A-grade bottleneck, use web_search / screen_market to find listed companies.

Initial Screen
CriterionRequirement
Listing statusListed (A/HK/US/JP/TW/EU)
Bottleneck revenue share>30% of revenue from the bottleneck link
Market capPrefer <$10B (large caps already priced)
LiquidityAverage daily turnover >$1M
Valuation Gate (mandatory, never skip)

A real bottleneck ≠ an investment opportunity. For every company, compute PE/PB/ROE/FCF yield with financial_rigor (command=verify_valuation), and run financial_rigor (command=three_scenario) for scenario valuation:

  • Red light (any one → signal strength capped at ★★, flag "valuation stretched"): market cap >20% of TAM; PS>30x with revenue growth <100%; market cap >10× 5-year optimistic revenue forecast; stock doubled within 60 days of a follow-on offering.
  • Yellow light (needs extra justification, else downgrade): loss-making + PS>15x; PS >5× a profitable peer; PE>80x (compute PEG).
  • Green light (bonus): PS<10x with revenue growing; PE<30x with a moat (flag "margin of safety").

Sanity check (mandatory): with financial_rigor (command=three_scenario), answer — "buying at current market cap, if the most optimistic scenario fully plays out and I exit at 25× PE in 10 years, what's the annualized return?" <10%/yr → flag "no margin of safety at current price".

Step 5: Cross-Validation — Don't Trust a Single Story

Positive checks
CheckQuestion
Customer validationHave top customers signed/imported? (check announcements, customer filings)
Revenue validationIs the bottleneck already showing in revenue growth? (last 2-3 quarters)
Price validationIs the product raising price? (industry quotes, analyst reports)
Capacity validationIs capacity really tight? (lead times, customer complaints)
Capital validationIs there expansion capex? (company guidance)

Use get_financial_statements / get_stock_news / web_search.

Show full SKILL.md (416 more words)Show less
Reverse checks (Munger inversion)
  • Why don't smart people buy this stock?
  • Can the bottleneck be bypassed? Alternative routes?
  • Can China / other players quickly replicate capacity?
  • If end-demand drops 50%, what happens to this company?
  • Has management diluted at highs before?
  • What growth assumption does the current valuation imply?

Step 6: Output — Bottleneck Opportunity Board

Ranking Table
RankCompanyTickerMkt CapRevenuePSPEBottleneck linkGradeShareGrowthSignalValuation

Market cap, revenue, PS, PE are mandatory — never skip with "TBD". If financials can't be obtained, signal strength ≤★★.

Signal strength (valuation gate directly affects):

  • ★★★★★ multi-cross-validated + customers imported + revenue confirmed + valuation green
  • ★★★★ most checks pass + valuation green/yellow (with explanation)
  • ★★★ logic holds but parts unverified + valuation yellow acceptable
  • ★★ early signal, or logic holds but valuation red
  • ★ pure concept, unverified

After drafting, run report_audit (command=extract → verify each point → command=verdict) as a quality gate to ensure no hallucinated numbers.

One-Pager Template
🎯 {Company} ({Ticker}) — {one-line bottleneck positioning}

Why it's a bottleneck: (2-3 sentences)
Why this company: (2-3 sentences)

Catalyst timeline:
- Near-term (1-3m): [earnings / capacity / customer win]
- Mid-term (3-12m): [industry trend / expansion node]

Key risks: 1.  2.

Key data: market cap / revenue / PS / PE / growth / bottleneck revenue share
Margin of safety: 10y 25× PE exit method, annualized return XX%. Conclusion: yes/no.

Cross-validation status: ✅ customer / ✅ revenue / ⚠️ valuation stretched / ❌ unverified

Conclusion: deep research / watchlist / skip

Save with write_file to the reports directory (e.g. reports/bottleneck-map/{trend}-bottleneck-{YYYYMMDD}.md).

Step 7: Inventory Update — Maintain the Bottleneck Map

On each run: ① re-check identified bottlenecks (new suppliers? capacity expanded? substitute breakthrough?); ② scan new bottlenecks (web_search last 7 days supply chain / shortage / bottleneck news); ③ update grades (upgrade/downgrade/relieve).

AI Research Bias Self-Check

BiasSymptomCounter
Leader-biasSearch dominated by large capsDeliberately search small-cap suppliers, add "small cap"
English-biasMiss JP/KR/TW playersMust search JP/KR/TW market suppliers
Narrative-biasDrawn to "AI concept" labelsLook only at actual supply-chain position, not market labels
Confirmation-biasAfter finding a bottleneck, only seek positive evidenceForce Step 5 reverse checks
Recency-biasRely on stale infoPrefer last 30 days of data

Core Principles (highest priority)

  1. Don't ask the AI to recommend stocks — ask it to decompose supply chains. The question matters more than the answer.
  2. Physical first — only links that need real physical product/material/equipment.
  3. Layer 2 and Layer 3 — don't chase already-priced leaders.
  4. Cross-validate — every conclusion needs ≥2 independent sources.
  5. Be honest about uncertainty — if data is missing, say so; don't fill with speculation.
  6. Bottlenecks are temporary — every bottleneck gets resolved; the key is timing the window.
  7. Small cap ≠ good opportunity — a small cap can also be a bad company; it must pass financial quality.
  8. A real bottleneck ≠ an investment — at PS>30x or still loss-making, the current price is not a buy. Valuation is a hard gate that cannot be overridden by bottleneck purity, signal strength, or narrative appeal. Better to miss a bottleneck stock that ran than buy a loss-making company at 100× sales.

© HKUDS, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

Just SKILL.md in agent/src/skills/bottleneck-hunter of HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.

Open the folder on GitHubat commit e532650

Compare with similar skills

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter compared with similar skills
SkillStarsUsed inTokensAuto-checkLicenceRepo updated
Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter this skillHKUDS/Vibe-Trading35k—~2.7kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
AI-Trader Market IntelHKUDS/AI-Trader23k—~1.1kAutomated safety check: PassNone
Stock Deep Analysis Workflowwbh604/UZI-Skill7.1k—~9.1kAutomated safety check: NotesMIT
Zhengxi Fund Manager Views Librarylyra81604/zhengxi-views1.8k—~1.6kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Supply Chain Bottleneck Hunterxbtlin/ai-berkshire17k—~2.6kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Deep Company Article Seriesxbtlin/ai-berkshire17k—~2kAutomated safety check: PassMIT

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Questions about Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter

What does Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter do?

Breaks a structural trend such as AI infrastructure into its physical supply chain and ranks lesser-known listed companies sitting on each bottleneck. You name a long-running trend, for example AI infrastructure, energy transition, defense modernization, semiconductor reshoring or the space economy, and the skill first checks that it qualifies: durable growth, real hardware demand, large global capex and demand growing faster than supply. It then breaks the trend into layers of the physical supply chain, treating widely watched core components as already priced in and focusing on second and third layer links such as optical modules, lasers, InP substrates, SOI wafers, IC substrates and specialty fiberglass.

When should I use Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter?

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter fits situations like: finding lesser-known companies that benefit from a structural trend; decomposing an industry's supply chain down to component and material level; scoring which supply-chain link is likely to run short first; building a ranked bottleneck board from a trend such as energy transition.

How do I install Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill bottleneck-hunter -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/bottleneck-hunter in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .claude/skills/bottleneck-hunter in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter in Codex?

Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill bottleneck-hunter -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/bottleneck-hunter in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .agents/skills/bottleneck-hunter in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill bottleneck-hunter -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/bottleneck-hunter, .gemini/skills/bottleneck-hunter, .github/skills/bottleneck-hunter and .opencode/skills/bottleneck-hunter in your project.

What does Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter is instructions for the agent only. Our summary lists: Web search access; The financial_rigor tool for the valuation gates.

Does Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter use?

Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter use?

About 2.7k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 11k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter: AI-Trader Market Intel (HKUDS/AI-Trader, 23k stars), Stock Deep Analysis Workflow (wbh604/UZI-Skill, 7.1k stars), Zhengxi Fund Manager Views Library (lyra81604/zhengxi-views, 1.8k stars) and Supply Chain Bottleneck Hunter (xbtlin/ai-berkshire, 17k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Supply-Chain Bottleneck Hunter?

HKUDS (a GitHub organization) maintains it in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, which has 35,043 GitHub stars. The repository holds 89 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 8, 2026.

Source: HKUDS/Vibe-Trading on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.