On-Chain Data Analysis

MVRV = market cap / realized cap

Realized cap = Σ(each UTXO × price at last movement)
             = sum of all holders' cost basis

| MVRV | Meaning | Historical Signal |
|------|------|---------|
| > 3.5 | Severely overvalued, large unrealized profits across holders | Historical top zone |
| 2.0-3.5 | Richly valued, most holders in profit | Mid-to-late bull market |
| 1.0-2.0 | Reasonable range | Normal market or early bull market |
| < 1.0 | Undervalued, most holders underwater | Bear-market bottom zone |

Signal logic: MVRV > 3.5 -> most holders have large unrealized gains -> strong incentive to sell -> potential top
              MVRV < 1.0 -> most holders are losing money -> unwilling to sell -> potential bottom

NVT = market cap / daily on-chain transfer value

Similar to a PE ratio in traditional finance:
- High NVT: market cap is high relative to on-chain activity (overvalued or optimistic on future growth)
- Low NVT: market cap is low relative to on-chain activity (undervalued or value-like)

NVT Signal (improved):
NVT_Signal = market cap / MA(90, daily on-chain transfer value)
Use a 90-day moving average to smooth noise

| NVT Signal | Meaning |
|-----------|------|
| > 150 | Severely overvalued |
| 65-150 | Normal range |
| < 65 | Undervalued |

SOPR = realized value of spent outputs / creation value of spent outputs

Simply put: on average, are the coins sold today being sold at a profit or a loss?

| SOPR | Meaning | Signal |
|------|------|------|
| > 1.05 | Sellers are realizing 5%+ profit on average | Profit-taking pressure |
| 1.0-1.05 | Small-profit selling | Normal |
| = 1.0 | Break-even | Key support / resistance |
| < 1.0 | Selling at a loss | Panic selling (bottom signal) |

In bull markets: a pullback to SOPR = 1.0 is a buy opportunity (cost-basis support)
In bear markets: a rebound to SOPR = 1.0 is a sell opportunity (cost-basis resistance)

Score each indicator from 1 to 5 and combine with weights:

| Dimension | Weight | Indicators |
|------|------|------|
| Valuation | 30% | MVRV, NVT |
| Activity | 25% | active addresses, new addresses |
| Capital flow | 25% | exchange balances, stablecoins |
| Whale behavior | 20% | whale holdings, large transfers |

Total score > 4.0: strongly bullish
Total score 3.0-4.0: bullish bias
Total score 2.0-3.0: neutral
Total score < 2.0: bearish / leaning bearish

## On-Chain Analysis Report: BTC

### On-Chain Snapshot
| Metric | Current Value | Historical Percentile | Signal |
|------|--------|---------|------|
| MVRV | 2.1 | 65% | Elevated but not at a top |
| NVT Signal | 85 | 50% | Fair |
| SOPR(7d avg) | 1.02 | 55% | Slight profit-taking state |
| Active addresses | 950k/day | 45% | Relatively low |
| Exchange balance | 2.30M BTC | 30% | Low level (bullish) |

### Whale Activity
- Last 7 days: net withdrawal of +15,000 BTC (bullish)
- Large transfers: 3 transfers >1000 BTC into cold wallets
- Miners: holdings stable, no major outflows observed

### Composite Score: 3.5/5 (bullish bias)

### Conclusion
On-chain data is broadly bullish. MVRV is not yet in an extreme zone, exchange balances are low,
and whales continue to accumulate. But active addresses remain soft, so monitor whether this is an
"institution-driven bull market without retail participation". Maintain long exposure, but keep
position sizing controlled and avoid leverage.