Revops Revenue Planning
swan-gtm/gtm-skills
Annual and quarterly revenue plan construction, top-down vs bottoms-up reconciliation, plan versioning, stretch goal handling, and FP&A-RevOps collaboration for B2B revenue teams.
Reads GDP, inflation, PMI, rates and FX data plus central bank policy to place the economy in a cycle stage and derive major asset allocation tilts for China, the US and Europe.
Install Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading macro-analysis --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis .claude/skills/macro-analysis && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "macro-analysis" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis into .claude/skills/macro-analysis/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "macro-analysis", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysisType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading macro-analysis --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis .agents/skills/macro-analysis && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "macro-analysis" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis into .agents/skills/macro-analysis/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "macro-analysis", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading macro-analysis --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis .cursor/skills/macro-analysis && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "macro-analysis" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis into .cursor/skills/macro-analysis/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "macro-analysis", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git --path agent/src/skills/macro-analysis--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading macro-analysis --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis .gemini/skills/macro-analysis && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "macro-analysis" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis into .gemini/skills/macro-analysis/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "macro-analysis", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading macro-analysisInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis .github/skills/macro-analysis && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "macro-analysis" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis into .github/skills/macro-analysis/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "macro-analysis", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading macro-analysis --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis .opencode/skills/macro-analysis && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "macro-analysis" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/macro-analysis into .opencode/skills/macro-analysis/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "macro-analysis", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
macro-analysis- GitHub stars
- 35k
- Token cost
- ~2.1k tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 653 words
- Files
- 1
- Skills in repo
- 89
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
Reads GDP, inflation, PMI, rates and FX data plus central bank policy to place the economy in a cycle stage and derive major asset allocation tilts for China, the US and Europe.
- Works in 4 steps: Data Collection and Current-State… → Cycle Positioning → Policy Impact Assessment → …
- Identifying which stage of the economic cycle the economy is in
- SKILL.md covers Overview, Core Indicator System, Four-Stage Economic Cycle Model and Central Bank Policy Analysis…, plus 3 more sections
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
What it does
The skill interprets macro data and central bank policy for China (PBOC), the United States (Fed) and Europe (ECB). Indicator tables give frequency, key thresholds and data sources for growth measures such as GDP, PMI, industrial production and retail sales, for inflation measures such as CPI, PPI, core CPI and M2, and for rates and FX such as LPR, DR007, 10-year yields, USD/CNY and the US 10Y-2Y spread.
It then places the economy on a four-stage cycle using the Merrill Lynch clock, with stages defined by the direction of growth and inflation, starting with recovery and overheat, and a table of the best, second-best and worst asset for each stage along with the typical policy setting. The output is a set of tilts across the major asset classes.
When your agent uses it
- Identifying which stage of the economic cycle the economy is in
- Interpreting a PMI, CPI or GDP release against key thresholds
- Reading PBOC, Fed or ECB policy for asset allocation
- Deriving equity, bond and commodity tilts from the cycle stage
Example prompts
- “Which Merrill Lynch clock stage fits a PMI above 50 together with falling CPI?”
- “Interpret the latest China CPI and PPI numbers and what they imply for corporate profits.”
- “What does an inverted US 10Y-2Y spread signal, and how far ahead does it lead?”
- “Suggest asset allocation tilts for the overheat stage.”
Workflow steps
4 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 14cabaf. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are markdown).
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis loads about 2.1k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 46 tokens; SKILL.md has 653 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading at commit 14cabaf, republished under its MIT licence (© HKUDS). 653 words, ~2,084 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/macro-analysis/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).- name
- macro-analysis
- description
- Macroeconomic cycle positioning and central-bank policy interpretation, including GDP/CPI/PMI/rates/FX analysis, with output in the form of major-asset allocation tilts.
- category
- analysis
Macroeconomic Analysis
Overview
Interprets macroeconomic data and central-bank policy, identifies the current economic-cycle stage, and derives major-asset allocation direction. Covers the three major economies of China (PBOC), the United States (Fed), and Europe (ECB).
Core Indicator System
Growth Indicators
| Indicator | Frequency | Key Threshold | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP YoY | Quarterly | China >5% = normal, <4% = weak | National Bureau of Statistics |
| Manufacturing PMI | Monthly | >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction, 49-51 = borderline | NBS / Caixin |
| Industrial production | Monthly | >5% = normal | National Bureau of Statistics |
| Retail sales | Monthly | >8% = strong consumption | National Bureau of Statistics |
| Fixed asset investment | Monthly | Focus on infrastructure vs real-estate components | National Bureau of Statistics |
Inflation Indicators
| Indicator | Frequency | Key Threshold | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY | Monthly | >3% = inflation pressure, <0% = deflation risk | Strongly affected by the pork cycle, so core CPI is more reliable |
| PPI YoY | Monthly | >0% = improving corporate profits, <0% = deflation transmission | Leads CPI by 3-6 months |
| Core CPI | Monthly | >2% = demand-driven inflation | Excludes food and energy |
| M2 YoY | Monthly | >10% = monetary easing | The M2-M1 spread reflects how active liquidity is |
Rates and FX
| Indicator | Meaning | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y / 5Y LPR | Loan prime rate | Rate-cut signal |
| DR007 | Interbank 7-day repo rate | Funding tightness / looseness |
| 10Y government bond yield | Risk-free rate anchor | <2.5% = loose, >3.5% = tight |
| USD/CNY | Exchange rate | >7.3 = high depreciation pressure |
| US 10Y-2Y spread | Term spread | Inversion signals recession (leads by 12-18 months) |
Four-Stage Economic Cycle Model
Merrill Lynch Clock Framework
GDP↑ + CPI↓ GDP↑ + CPI↑
┌─────────┐ ┌─────────┐
│ Recovery │ ────→ │ Overheat│
│ │ │ │
└────┬────┘ └────┬────┘
↑ │
│ ↓
┌────┴────┐ ┌────┴────┐
│Recession│ ←──── │Stagflat │
│ │ │ │
└─────────┘ └─────────┘
GDP↓ + CPI↓ GDP↓ + CPI↑Asset Performance by Stage
| Stage | Best Asset | Second-Best Asset | Worst Asset | Typical Policy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery | Equities (growth / small cap) | Commodities | Bonds | Monetary easing + fiscal stimulus |
| Overheat | Commodities (oil / copper) | Equities (cyclical / value) | Bonds | Hiking cycle begins |
| Stagflation | Cash / short-duration bonds | Gold | Equities | Policy dilemma |
| Recession | Bonds (long duration) | Gold | Equities / commodities | Rate cuts + quantitative easing |
China-Specific Adjustments
- Real-estate cycle: property sales / investment is a core variable in China's economy, and the policy response during downturns determines the turning point
- Infrastructure offset: when property is weak, infrastructure often strengthens (countercyclical adjustment), so track the pace of special-bond issuance
- Export orientation: external demand (US PMI / Eurozone PMI) affects manufacturing conditions
- Policy-driven market: tone-setting from Politburo meetings / the Central Economic Work Conference matters more than the data itself
Central Bank Policy Analysis Framework
Show full SKILL.md (296 more words)Show less
Federal Reserve (Fed)
Sequence to watch: FOMC statement → dot plot → Powell speech → meeting minutes
| Signal | Hawkish (tightening) | Dovish (easing) |
|---|---|---|
| Employment | "labor market remains tight" | "softening in labor market" |
| Inflation | "inflation remains elevated" | "inflation moving toward target" |
| Forward guidance | "further tightening may be appropriate" | "rate cuts could be appropriate" |
| Balance sheet | Faster / continued QT | Slower QT / hints of QE |
Fed decision function: core PCE > 2.5% → tightening bias; unemployment > 4.5% → easing bias; when the two conflict, focus on which deviation is larger
People's Bank of China (PBOC)
Toolbox:
| Tool | Signal Strength | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| RRR cut | Strong | Releases long-term liquidity, bullish for equities and bonds |
| Rate cuts (MLF/LPR) | Strong | Reduces financing costs, bullish for growth stocks |
| OMO (reverse repo) | Medium | Short-term liquidity adjustment |
| PSL / relending | Medium | Targeted support (infrastructure / real estate) |
| Window guidance | Weak but effective | Directs credit allocation |
European Central Bank (ECB)
Core variables: HICP (harmonized CPI), Eurozone PMI, Germany-France yield spread Special feature: large divergence among member economies, creating a "one size fits all" problem
Analysis Framework
Step 1: Data Collection and Current-State Description
Collect core indicators from the latest 3 months:
- China: PMI, CPI, PPI, M2, aggregate financing, LPR
- United States: nonfarm payrolls, CPI, core PCE, ISM PMI, Fed rate
- Global: oil, copper, US dollar index (DXY), VIXStep 2: Cycle Positioning
Decision criteria:
1. GDP trend: accelerating / decelerating / topping / bottoming
2. Inflation trend: rising / falling / topping / bottoming
3. Policy direction: easing / neutral / tightening / turning
4. Composite stage: recovery / overheat / stagflation / recession
5. Cycle position: early / mid / lateStep 3: Policy Impact Assessment
1. Recent policy events (last 30 days)
2. Interpretation of policy intent (support growth / control inflation / contain risk)
3. Transmission paths to each asset class
4. Lag estimation (6-12 months for monetary policy, 3-6 months for fiscal policy)Step 4: Asset Allocation Tilt
Based on cycle position and policy direction:
- Overweight / neutral / underweight: China A-shares / Hong Kong stocks / US equities / bonds / commodities / cash
- Style tilt: growth vs value, large cap vs small cap
- Sector preference: cyclical / defensive / growthOutput Format
## Macro Environment Assessment
### Snapshot of Core Data
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Trend |
|------|--------|------|------|
| China PMI | 50.2 | 49.8 | ↑ |
| ... | ... | ... | ... |
### Economic Cycle Positioning
- **Current stage**: early recovery / mid-overheat / late stagflation / mid-recession
- **Core logic**: explain the basis in 2-3 sentences
- **Estimated remaining duration**: expected to last another X months
### Central Bank Policy Analysis
- **PBOC**: easing bias, likely another 25bp RRR cut in Q2
- **Fed**: hiking pause, watch the June dot plot
- **Policy conflicts**: whether there are conflicting policy signals worth attention
### Major Asset Allocation Tilt
| Asset | Recommendation | Logic |
|------|------|------|
| China A-shares | Overweight | Policy bottom confirmed + loose liquidity |
| Bonds | Neutral | Limited room for rates to fall further |
| Commodities | Underweight | Weak demand |
| Cash | Underweight | High opportunity cost |
### Risk Warnings
- Risk 1: ...
- Risk 2: ...Notes
- Data timeliness: macro data is released with lags; PMI is the timeliest (start of month), GDP is the most delayed (quarter-end + 15 days)
- Do not predict precisely: macro analysis provides directional judgment, not exact levels or timing
- Focus on marginal change: direction and speed of change matter more than absolute levels
- China-specific feature: policy intent > economic data, and major meeting tone-setting has the highest priority
- Global linkage: the US dollar / US Treasury yields are global pricing anchors, and Fed policy affects global liquidity
- Avoid hindsight bias: analyze based on the information available at the time, not by reverse-engineering from future data
© HKUDS, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
Just SKILL.md in agent/src/skills/macro-analysis of HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.
Open the folder on GitHubat commit 14cabaf
Compare with similar skills
Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis this skillHKUDS/Vibe-Trading | 35k | — | ~2.1k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Revops Revenue Planningswan-gtm/gtm-skills | 165 | — | ~7.2k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| FRED Macro Time Serieskansoku-trade/kansoku | 327 | 1 repos | ~1.1k | Automated safety check: Notes | Custom licence | |
| Financial Analysis AgentLeoYeAI/openclaw-master-skills | 2.2k | — | ~4.3k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Fin Modelingasgard-ai-platform/skills | 241 | — | ~1.4k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Strategy Performance Reporttradesdontlie/tradingview-mcp | 6.8k | 3 repos | ~591 | Automated safety check: Pass | Custom licence |
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Related
Categories
Questions about Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis
What does Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis do?
Reads GDP, inflation, PMI, rates and FX data plus central bank policy to place the economy in a cycle stage and derive major asset allocation tilts for China, the US and Europe. The skill interprets macro data and central bank policy for China (PBOC), the United States (Fed) and Europe (ECB). Indicator tables give frequency, key thresholds and data sources for growth measures such as GDP, PMI, industrial production and retail sales, for inflation measures such as CPI, PPI, core CPI and M2, and for rates and FX such as LPR, DR007, 10-year yields, USD/CNY and the US 10Y-2Y spread.
When should I use Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis?
Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis fits situations like: identifying which stage of the economic cycle the economy is in; interpreting a PMI, CPI or GDP release against key thresholds; reading PBOC, Fed or ECB policy for asset allocation; deriving equity, bond and commodity tilts from the cycle stage.
How do I install Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/macro-analysis in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .claude/skills/macro-analysis in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis in Codex?
Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/macro-analysis in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .agents/skills/macro-analysis in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill macro-analysis -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/macro-analysis, .gemini/skills/macro-analysis, .github/skills/macro-analysis and .opencode/skills/macro-analysis in your project.
What does Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis is instructions for the agent only.
Does Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis use?
Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis use?
About 2.1k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 8.3k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis: Revops Revenue Planning (swan-gtm/gtm-skills, 165 stars), FRED Macro Time Series (kansoku-trade/kansoku, 327 stars), Financial Analysis Agent (LeoYeAI/openclaw-master-skills, 2.2k stars) and Fin Modeling (asgard-ai-platform/skills, 241 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Macro Cycle and Policy Analysis?
HKUDS (a GitHub organization) maintains it in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, which has 34,949 GitHub stars. The repository holds 89 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 8, 2026.
Source: HKUDS/Vibe-Trading on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.