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swan-gtm/gtm-skills
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Framework for central bank policy, exchange rate forecasting, geopolitical risk and capital flows that produces macro factor signals to guide cross-asset allocation.
Install Global Macro Analysis
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading global-macro --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/global-macro .claude/skills/global-macro && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "global-macro" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macro into .claude/skills/global-macro/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "global-macro", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macroType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading global-macro --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/global-macro .agents/skills/global-macro && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "global-macro" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macro into .agents/skills/global-macro/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "global-macro", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading global-macro --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/global-macro .cursor/skills/global-macro && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "global-macro" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macro into .cursor/skills/global-macro/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "global-macro", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git --path agent/src/skills/global-macro--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading global-macro --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/global-macro .gemini/skills/global-macro && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "global-macro" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macro into .gemini/skills/global-macro/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "global-macro", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading global-macroInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/global-macro .github/skills/global-macro && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "global-macro" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macro into .github/skills/global-macro/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "global-macro", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading global-macro --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/global-macro .opencode/skills/global-macro && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "global-macro" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/global-macro into .opencode/skills/global-macro/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "global-macro", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
global-macro- GitHub stars
- 35k
- Token cost
- ~1.9k tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 707 words
- Files
- 1
- Skills in repo
- 89
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
Framework for central bank policy, exchange rate forecasting, geopolitical risk and capital flows that produces macro factor signals to guide cross-asset allocation.
- Works in 5 steps: Central Bank Policy Transmission Chain → Exchange Rate Forecasting Framework → Geopolitical Risk Assessment → …
- Reading Fed, ECB or BOJ policy and its likely effect on asset prices
- SKILL.md covers Overview, Core Concepts, Analysis Framework and Output Format, plus 1 more section
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
What it does
The skill reasons that macro cycles set the main direction of asset classes and leaves micro-level timing to other skills. It traces the central bank transmission chain from policy rates through the government bond curve and credit spreads to corporate earnings and equity valuation, then lists indicators, forward signals and lagging confirmations for the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Some empirical notes link Fed hiking and cutting cycles to China A-shares, with the caution that cuts do not guarantee gains.
Exchange rate forecasting is organized in three layers: purchasing power parity as a long-term anchor, interest parity for medium-term direction and the BEER model for equilibrium estimates, plus a USD/CNY checklist built around the China-US 10-year spread, net FX settlement and the PBOC fixing. A geopolitical section proposes a quantitative proxy for the GPR index. The output is a set of quantifiable macro factor signals.
When your agent uses it
- Reading Fed, ECB or BOJ policy and its likely effect on asset prices
- Forecasting an exchange rate such as USD/CNY with PPP, interest parity or BEER
- Quantifying geopolitical risk as a macro factor
- Setting cross-asset allocation from a macro view
Example prompts
- “Summarize the current Fed policy stance using the dot plot and FedWatch probabilities.”
- “What does the China-US 10-year spread imply for USD/CNY?”
- “Build a macro factor signal from central bank policy and geopolitical risk for my allocation model.”
- “Explain how Fed cutting cycles have historically affected China A-shares.”
Workflow steps
5 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit b1f6ce7. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are python).
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Global Macro Analysis loads about 1.9k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 51 tokens; SKILL.md has 707 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading at commit b1f6ce7, republished under its MIT licence (© HKUDS). 707 words, ~1,937 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/global-macro/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).- name
- global-macro
- description
- Global macro analysis framework (central bank policy transmission / FX forecasting / geopolitical risk / capital flows), used to build macro factor signals that drive cross-asset allocation.
- category
- analysis
Global Macro Analysis
Overview
Builds a macro analysis framework from three dimensions: central-bank policy, exchange-rate regimes, and geopolitics. Outputs quantifiable macro factor signals to drive cross-asset allocation decisions. Core logic: macro cycles determine major asset direction, while micro-level timing is delegated to other skills.
Core Concepts
1. Central Bank Policy Transmission Chain
Policy-rate changes → government bond yield curve → credit spreads → financing costs for the real economy → corporate earnings → equity valuationMonitoring framework for the three major central banks:
| Central Bank | Core Indicators | Forward Signals | Lagging Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (Fed) | FFR, dot plot, SEP | CME FedWatch probabilities | nonfarm payrolls / CPI / PCE |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | Main refinancing rate | Eurozone PMI, HICP | credit growth |
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | YCC band, policy rate | JPY exchange rate, JGB yields | core CPI |
Historical transmission of Fed hiking / cutting cycles to China A-shares (empirical):
- Late in a Fed hiking cycle (the last 1-2 hikes), China A-shares often have already priced it in, and the average drawdown of the CSI 300 narrows to -3%
- In the 3 months after the first Fed cut, the CSI 300 has averaged +8.2% (mean of the 2001 / 2007 / 2019 cycles)
- But rate cuts do not automatically mean gains. In 2008, cuts came with recession and China A-shares still fell
2. Exchange Rate Forecasting Framework
Three-layer model:
| Model | Applicable Horizon | Core Variables | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) | 3-5 years | CPI gap between two countries | Long-term anchor |
| Interest Parity (UIP/CIP) | 3-12 months | rate differential + forward premium/discount | Medium-term direction |
| BEER model | 1-3 years | terms of trade + net foreign inflows + productivity | Equilibrium estimate |
USD/CNY practical checklist:
- China-US 10Y spread > 0: appreciation pressure on the RMB (capital inflows)
- China-US 10Y spread < -150bp: rising depreciation pressure on the RMB
- Net FX settlement surplus / deficit: directly reflects conversion direction of corporates and households
- PBOC fixing vs market expectation: signal that the countercyclical factor has been activated
3. Geopolitical Risk Assessment
Quantitative approach (proxy for the GPR index):
# Geopolitical risk proxy indicators
risk_indicators = {
"vix": "Fear index > 25 = high risk",
"gold_oil_ratio": "Gold / oil > 25 = rising risk aversion",
"usd_index": "DXY jump > 2% / week = capital flowing back to USD",
"credit_spread": "IG spread > 150bp = credit tightening",
"em_spread": "EMBI spread widening > 50bp / month = emerging-market stress"
}Typical asset impacts of geopolitical events (historical averages):
- Local conflicts: gold +3-5%, oil +5-15%, equities -2-5%, with impact lasting 1-4 weeks
- Trade friction: affected sectors -10-20%, beneficiary substitute sectors +5-10%, lasting 3-6 months
- Financial sanctions: sanctioned-country currency -10-30%, commodity supply side hit
4. Global Capital Flow Tracking
Key data sources:
- EPFR fund flows: weekly net inflows into global equity / bond funds
- Northbound flows (Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect): daily, with net buying > 10 billion RMB in a day as a strong signal
- US Treasury TIC data: monthly, showing changes in foreign holdings of Treasuries
- FX reserve changes: quarterly, indicating central-bank asset allocation direction
Northbound flow signal rules (China A-share practice):
| Signal | Condition | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Strong buy | Net buying for 5 consecutive days and cumulative amount > 20 billion RMB | Foreign investors are building positions trendwise |
| Weak buy | Single-day net buying > 8 billion RMB | Short-term sentiment is bullish |
| Warning | Net selling for 5 consecutive days and cumulative amount > 15 billion RMB | Foreign investors are reducing positions trendwise |
| Neutral | Daily net flow within ±3 billion RMB | No directional signal |
Show full SKILL.md (232 more words)Show less
5. Dollar Cycle and Emerging Markets
Four-stage dollar cycle model:
Strong-dollar phase (DXY rising) → capital outflows from emerging markets → EM currency depreciation → EM equities and bonds both sell off
Weak-dollar phase (DXY falling) → capital flows back into EM → EM currency appreciation → EM assets outperform developed marketsPractical mapping:
- DXY > 105 and trending up: underweight emerging markets (China A-shares / Hong Kong stocks), overweight USD assets
- DXY < 100 and trending down: overweight emerging markets, underweight USD assets
- DXY in the 100-105 range: allocate selectively based on fundamentals
Analysis Framework
Steps for Building a Macro Dashboard
- Data collection: rates (US 10Y / China 10Y government bonds), FX (DXY / USD-CNY), commodities (gold / oil / copper), capital flows (northbound / EPFR)
- Cycle positioning: which stage are we in now: hiking / cutting / pause? Strong-dollar or weak-dollar cycle?
- Factor scoring: score each macro factor from -2 to +2 (-2 = extremely bearish, +2 = extremely bullish)
- Asset mapping: macro factor scores → recommended weights for major asset classes
Example Macro Factor Scoring
macro_factors = {
"fed_policy": +1, # Hiking pause, dovish tilt
"cny_pressure": -1, # RMB depreciation pressure
"geopolitical": 0, # Neutral geopolitical risk
"northbound_flow": +2, # Persistent net northbound buying
"usd_cycle": -1, # Stronger USD
}
# Composite score = sum(values) / len(values) = +0.2 → neutral to mildly bullishOutput Format
## Macro Analysis Report
### Cycle Positioning
- Federal Reserve: [late hiking / pause / early cutting]
- Dollar cycle: [strong / range-bound / weak]
- China monetary policy: [easing / neutral / tightening]
### Factor Scores (-2 ~ +2)
| Factor | Score | Basis |
|------|------|------|
| Central bank policy | +1 | Fed paused hiking and the market expects cuts this year |
| FX pressure | -1 | USD/CNY broke above 7.2 and FX settlement turned into deficit |
| Capital flows | +2 | Northbound net buying exceeded 20 billion RMB continuously |
### Asset Allocation Recommendations
- China A-shares: [overweight / neutral / underweight] — rationale
- Hong Kong stocks: [overweight / neutral / underweight] — rationale
- Gold: [overweight / neutral / underweight] — rationale
- US Treasuries: [overweight / neutral / underweight] — rationale
### Risk Warnings
- [specific risk events and potential impacts]Notes
- Macro analysis provides directional guidance, not precise timing. Leave timing to skills such as
technical-basicorvolatility - Central-bank policy judgment should be based on official statements and meeting minutes. Do not over-interpret unofficial messages
- Exchange-rate forecasting has large errors. PPP deviations can persist for years, so use it for direction only, not exact levels
- Northbound flows contain noise (arbitrage / hedging), so persistence matters (at least 3 consecutive days in the same direction)
- Geopolitical shocks are usually short-lived (1-4 weeks) unless they change fundamentals (such as long-term sanctions or trade wars)
- This framework is not investment advice and is for research backtesting only
© HKUDS, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
Just SKILL.md in agent/src/skills/global-macro of HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.
Open the folder on GitHubat commit b1f6ce7
Compare with similar skills
Global Macro Analysis next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Macro Analysis this skillHKUDS/Vibe-Trading | 35k | — | ~1.9k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Revops Revenue Planningswan-gtm/gtm-skills | 172 | — | ~7.2k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| FRED Macro Time Serieskansoku-trade/kansoku | 328 | — | ~1.1k | Automated safety check: Notes | Custom licence | |
| Financial Analysis AgentLeoYeAI/openclaw-master-skills | 2.2k | — | ~4.3k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Fin Modelingasgard-ai-platform/skills | 242 | — | ~1.4k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Strategy Performance Reporttradesdontlie/tradingview-mcp | 6.8k | 2 repos | ~591 | Automated safety check: Pass | Custom licence |
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Related
Categories
Questions about Global Macro Analysis
What does Global Macro Analysis do?
Framework for central bank policy, exchange rate forecasting, geopolitical risk and capital flows that produces macro factor signals to guide cross-asset allocation. The skill reasons that macro cycles set the main direction of asset classes and leaves micro-level timing to other skills. It traces the central bank transmission chain from policy rates through the government bond curve and credit spreads to corporate earnings and equity valuation, then lists indicators, forward signals and lagging confirmations for the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of Japan.
When should I use Global Macro Analysis?
Global Macro Analysis fits situations like: reading Fed, ECB or BOJ policy and its likely effect on asset prices; forecasting an exchange rate such as USD/CNY with PPP, interest parity or BEER; quantifying geopolitical risk as a macro factor; setting cross-asset allocation from a macro view.
How do I install Global Macro Analysis in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/global-macro in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .claude/skills/global-macro in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Global Macro Analysis in Codex?
Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/global-macro in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .agents/skills/global-macro in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Global Macro Analysis in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/global-macro, .gemini/skills/global-macro, .github/skills/global-macro and .opencode/skills/global-macro in your project.
What does Global Macro Analysis need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Global Macro Analysis is instructions for the agent only.
Does Global Macro Analysis access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Global Macro Analysis safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Global Macro Analysis use?
Global Macro Analysis is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Global Macro Analysis use?
About 1.9k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 7.7k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Global Macro Analysis?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Global Macro Analysis: Revops Revenue Planning (swan-gtm/gtm-skills, 172 stars), FRED Macro Time Series (kansoku-trade/kansoku, 328 stars), Financial Analysis Agent (LeoYeAI/openclaw-master-skills, 2.2k stars) and Fin Modeling (asgard-ai-platform/skills, 242 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Global Macro Analysis?
HKUDS (a GitHub organization) maintains it in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, which has 35,097 GitHub stars. The repository holds 89 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 9, 2026.
Source: HKUDS/Vibe-Trading on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.