Market Analyzer

Market Analyzer

Produces structured market analysis reports: sizes the addressable market using top-down and bottom-up methods, identifies growth trajectories and adoption stages, segments customers, and assesses timing. Every estimate cites a data source or states its assumption explicitly.

Reference Files

Prerequisites

• Product, feature, or business idea description
• Target geography (default: global)
• Target customer segment (if known)

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Understanding

1. Classify the input — Determine whether the subject is a product idea, feature, market category, or industry vertical.
2. Extract key attributes:
   • Target customer profile
   • Value proposition or core problem solved
   • Geography and regulatory jurisdiction
   • Price range or monetization model (if known)
   • Competitive alternatives
3. Clarify gaps — If critical context is missing (target customer, geography, or value proposition), ask 3-5 targeted clarifying questions before proceeding.

Phase 2: Market Research

Use WebSearch to gather quantitative market data:

1. Industry reports — Search for market size reports from Statista, Grand View Research, Fortune Business Insights, IBISWorld, and similar aggregators.
2. Growth rates — Identify CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the relevant market and adjacent segments.
3. Funding signals — Search Crunchbase, PitchBook coverage, and venture capital trends in the space.
4. Consumer trends — Google Trends data, social media volume, and news sentiment.
5. Academic research — Search Semantic Scholar for relevant market studies, adoption research, and behavioral economics papers.
6. Government/public data — Census Bureau, BLS, World Bank, OECD datasets for demographic and economic baselines.

For each data point, record the source, publication date, and methodology (if available).

Phase 3: TAM/SAM/SOM Calculation

Apply both estimation approaches and cross-validate:

Top-down (from total industry):

TAM = Total industry revenue or total potential buyers x average revenue per buyer
SAM = TAM x % addressable by geography, segment, and channel
SOM = SAM x realistic capture rate (year 1-3)

Bottom-up (from unit economics):

Reachable customers = Identified target accounts or users in reachable channels
SOM = Reachable customers x conversion rate x average revenue per customer
SAM = SOM scaled to full serviceable segment (remove channel constraints)
TAM = SAM scaled to total market (remove geographic/segment constraints)

Cross-validate the two approaches. If they diverge by more than 3x, investigate the discrepancy and document the reason.

Phase 4: Trend and Timing Assessment

Evaluate four dimensions:

1. Market growth trajectory — Classify as emerging (pre-revenue), growing (CAGR > 10%), mature (CAGR 0-5%), or declining (negative CAGR).
2. Technology adoption stage — Map to Rogers curve: innovators (< 2.5%), early adopters (2.5-16%), early majority (16-50%), late majority (50-84%), laggards (> 84%).
3. Regulatory environment — Identify tailwinds (subsidies, mandates) and headwinds (restrictions, compliance costs).
4. Macro trends — Economic conditions, demographic shifts, technological enablers that accelerate or hinder the market.

Phase 5: Customer Segmentation

Identify 2-5 distinct customer segments:

• Demographics — Age, income, geography, company size (B2B)
• Behavioral — Usage patterns, purchase triggers, switching costs
• Willingness to pay — Price sensitivity signals, competitive pricing data
• Segment sizing — Estimated size and growth rate per segment

Phase 6: Report Generation

Produce the structured output below.

Output Format

## Market Analysis: {Subject}

### Executive Summary
**Market Opportunity Score: {1-5}/5**
{2-3 sentence summary of the opportunity, key market size, and timing assessment.}

### TAM / SAM / SOM

| Level | Value | Methodology | Confidence |
|-------|-------|-------------|------------|
| TAM | ${amount} | {Top-down / Bottom-up / Both} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SAM | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SOM (Year 1) | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SOM (Year 3) | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |

**Top-down calculation:**
{Step-by-step derivation with sources}

**Bottom-up calculation:**
{Step-by-step derivation with sources}

**Cross-validation:**
{Comparison of approaches, explanation of any divergence}

### Market Trends

| Dimension | Assessment | Evidence |
|-----------|-----------|----------|
| Growth trajectory | {Emerging/Growing/Mature/Declining} | {CAGR, data source} |
| Adoption stage | {Innovators/Early Adopters/Early Majority/Late Majority} | {penetration %, signal} |
| Regulatory | {Tailwind/Neutral/Headwind} | {specific regulation or policy} |
| Macro trends | {Favorable/Mixed/Unfavorable} | {key trend} |

### Customer Segments

| Segment | Size | Growth | WTP Signal | Priority |
|---------|------|--------|------------|----------|
| {name} | {size} | {rate} | {signal} | {Primary/Secondary/Tertiary} |

### Key Risks and Assumptions

| # | Assumption | Impact if Wrong | Confidence |
|---|-----------|-----------------|------------|
| 1 | {assumption} | {impact} | {High/Medium/Low} |

### Data Quality Assessment

| Data Point | Source | Date | Quality |
|-----------|--------|------|---------|
| {metric} | {source} | {date} | {Verified/Estimated/Extrapolated} |

### Recommendation
{1-2 paragraphs: proceed/pivot/investigate further, with specific next steps.}