Juglar Cycle Stock Stage

What it does

When your agent uses it

• The user provides a ticker/company
• Asks about 朱格拉周期
• Fixed-asset investment cycle
• Industry cycle phase

Example prompts

• “/juglar-cycle-stock-stage”

Workflow steps

4 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

1. 1A five-stage flowchart showing the Juglar cycle and visibly highlighting the current industry stage; annotate a different company stage…
2. 2A pie chart of Stage 1-5 probabilities after confirming they match the probability list and sum to roughly 100%.
3. 3An xychart-beta of the eight dimension scores on the common -2 to +2 scale, with the scoring table retained.
4. 4A compact flowchart of the signals required to enter the next stage and the evidence that would invalidate the current classification.

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit dedcf8f. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

• Tool permissions

  Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

  From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

• Runs code

  No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are markdown).

  From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

• Network

  No URLs in SKILL.md.

  From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

• Credentials

  Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

  From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Juglar Cycle Stock Stage loads about 2.3k tokens when it runs, and up to ~4.4k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 122 tokens; SKILL.md has 1,008 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it

~122

When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches

~2.3k

With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them

~4.4k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from haskaomni/serenity-skill at commit dedcf8f, republished under its MIT licence (© haskaomni). 1,008 words, ~2,252 tokens.

name

juglar-cycle-stock-stage

description

Classify a listed company and its core industry into Juglar fixed-asset investment cycle stages with probabilities, evidence, counter-evidence, migration signals, and investment implications. Use when the user provides a ticker/company or asks about 朱格拉周期, Juglar cycle, capex cycle, fixed-asset investment cycle, industry cycle phase, recovery, expansion, overheating, downturn, clearing, inventory cycle, capacity cycle, ASP, or supply-demand cycle positioning.

Where are the company and its core industry in the fixed-asset investment cycle, and what evidence would move the judgment to the next phase?

# TICKER：朱格拉周期阶段判断

【结论】
股票代码：
公司：
核心行业：
行业朱格拉周期阶段：
公司自身阶段：
股票定价阶段：
置信度：
未来 6-12 个月方向：

【阶段概率】
Stage 1 复苏期：xx%
Stage 2 扩张期：xx%
Stage 3 过热期：xx%
Stage 4 衰退期：xx%
Stage 5 出清期：xx%

紧接概率列表加入 Stage 1-5 Mermaid pie；数值必须与列表一致。

【周期位置图】
加入五阶段 Mermaid flowchart，并高亮当前行业阶段；公司阶段不同则单独标注。

【一句话判断】
...

【8维评分表】
| 维度 | 分数 | 证据 | 解释 |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| 需求周期 | | | |
| 价格周期 / ASP | | | |
| 利润率周期 | | | |
| 资本开支周期 | | | |
| 库存周期 | | | |
| 产能释放压力 | | | |
| 客户行为 | | | |
| 资本市场反应 | | | |

如八维数据完整，在表后加入 -2 到 +2 同量纲的 Mermaid xychart，并保留评分表。

【核心证据】
1.
2.
3.

【反证与风险】
1.
2.
3.

【阶段迁移信号】
- 进入下一阶段需要看到：
- 当前判断被推翻需要看到：

加入 Mermaid flowchart 展示迁移条件与证伪分支。

【投资含义】
1. 短期交易含义：
2. 中期持仓含义：
3. 最大风险：

【最终评级】
周期位置：
风险收益比：
适合策略：左侧买入 / 右侧持有 / 趋势加仓 / 逢高减仓 / 等待出清 / 只观察

© haskaomni, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 2 other files (references) in skills/juglar-cycle-stock-stage of haskaomni/serenity-skill.

• SKILL.md
• agents/openai.yaml
• references/original-framework.md

Open the folder on GitHubat commit dedcf8f