A skill your agent uses when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map…

MITAuto-check passedResearch & Science

Install Er Theory Hypotheses

skills CLI
$ npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills --skill er-theory-hypotheses -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills er-theory-hypotheses --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/Economic-Research-Journal-Skills/skills/er-theory-hypotheses .claude/skills/er-theory-hypotheses && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
er-theory-hypotheses
GitHub stars
1.2k
Token cost
~839 tokens
SKILL.md length
202 words
Files
1
Skills in repo
2,387
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

A skill your agent uses when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map…

  • Works in 3 steps: 理论起点:D 影响什么(挂在具体理论上,如委托代理、融资约束、信息不对称)。 → 传导机制:D 如何通过 M 传导到 Y(这一层要把 M→Y… → 结果预期:因此 D 对 Y 有方向明确的影响 → 落为 H1。
  • Writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable
  • SKILL.md covers 触发时机, 理论分析一节的两种主流写法, 从理论到假设的规范 and 假设与后文的呼应, plus 6 more sections
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

Er Theory Hypotheses is an agent skill from brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills. Use when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map one-to-one onto the empirical design.

Its SKILL.md is about 840 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. It is a single SKILL.md file with no bundled scripts.

It sits in Research & Science. The repository describes itself as: Journal-specific Claude Code/Codex skill packs covering mainstream journals — AER, QJE, Nature, Cell, 管理世界, 经济研究 & 200+ more — your fast track to getting published. | 覆盖主流期刊的… The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • Writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable
  • Falsifiable hypotheses that map one-to-one onto the empirical design

Example prompts

  • “/er-theory-hypotheses”

Workflow steps

3 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. 理论起点:D 影响什么(挂在具体理论上,如委托代理、融资约束、信息不对称)。
  2. 传导机制:D 如何通过 M 传导到 Y(这一层要把 M→Y 的逻辑讲透,见下文"方法论提醒")。
  3. 结果预期:因此 D 对 Y 有方向明确的影响 → 落为 H1。

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 932eb23. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Er Theory Hypotheses loads about 839 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 59 tokens; SKILL.md has 202 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~59
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~839

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills at commit 932eb23, republished under its MIT licence (© brycewang-stanford). 202 words, ~839 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/er-theory-hypotheses/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).
name
er-theory-hypotheses
description
Use when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map one-to-one onto the empirical design.

理论分析与研究假设(er-theory-hypotheses)

触发时机

  • 引言已写完,但"理论分析与研究假设"一节还只是文献综述的延续
  • 有实证设计、有结果,却没有事前的逻辑推演说明"为什么应该有这个效应"
  • 假设写成了"X 影响 Y",没有方向、不挂理论、无法证伪
  • 审稿人问"你的假设是怎么从理论推出来的?"
  • 提出了 H2、H3 却在后文没有任何对应检验

《经济研究》极重视理论贡献。这一节通常位于引言之后、研究设计之前,承担"事前论证"的全部责任。

理论分析一节的两种主流写法

写法 A:数理模型 / 微观基础

构建一个简化模型,从效用 / 利润最大化等微观基础出发,推导出可检验命题。

何时需要正式建模: 稿件的核心贡献在机制本身、存在多个相互竞争的力量需要刻画净效应、或要做反事实/福利分析时。

何时不需要: 效应方向由已有理论清楚给定、建模只是把直觉重新包装成代数("装饰性模型")时——审稿人会一眼看穿。

模型必须导出与实证设定对应的命题(Proposition),而非孤立的数学练习。

命题 1:在假设 [A1]、[A2] 下,∂Y/∂D > 0,即处理 D 提高结果 Y。
(对应假设 H1,由式(3)对 D 求偏导得到。)
命题 2:该效应随 [调节变量 Z] 增大而增强,即 ∂²Y/∂D∂Z > 0。
(对应假设 H3。)
写法 B:机制化的逻辑推演(更常见)

基于已有理论,分层论证"处理 D 如何通过机制 M 影响结果 Y",逐步导出假设。这是《经济研究》最主流的写法。

三层结构:

  1. 理论起点:D 影响什么(挂在具体理论上,如委托代理、融资约束、信息不对称)。
  2. 传导机制:D 如何通过 M 传导到 Y(这一层要把 M→Y 的逻辑讲透,见下文"方法论提醒")。
  3. 结果预期:因此 D 对 Y 有方向明确的影响 → 落为 H1。

从理论到假设的规范

每个假设(H1、H2……)必须同时满足:

  • (i) 挂在理论上:指明它来自哪一支文献 / 哪个理论命题;
  • (ii) 方向明确:用"提高/降低""增强/削弱",不用"影响""相关";
  • (iii) 可证伪:能写出"若假设成立则观察到 X;若不成立则观察到非 X"。
H1:[处理 D] 显著[提高/降低][结果 Y]。
H2(机制):[处理 D] 通过[机制 M]影响[结果 Y]。
H3(调节):[调节变量 Z]越高,[D 对 Y 的效应]越[强/弱]。
好假设 vs 坏假设
维度坏假设好假设
方向数字化转型影响企业绩效数字化转型提高企业绩效
挂理论凭直觉"应该有关系"由[融资约束理论]推出
可证伪政策"具有重要意义"政策使 Y 下降,且子样本 A 降幅大于 B
与机制衔接H2 与 H1 重复换词H2 指明 H1 效应经由 M 实现

错误:H:环境规制与企业创新存在关系。(无方向、不挂理论、不可证伪) 正确:H1:环境规制通过提高合规成本倒逼企业增加绿色研发投入(波特假说)。

假设与后文的呼应

理论假设必须与实证结构一一对应,否则审稿人会质疑"提出来不检验"。

假设类型对应实证检验
H1基准效应基准回归(主表第 1 列)
H2机制机制检验(→ er-mechanism)
H3调节 / 异质性异质性 / 交互项分析(→ er-heterogeneity)
H4竞争性假设对立机制的区分性检验

写完假设后,回头核对:每个 H 都能在目录里找到对应小节吗?每个实证小节都对应某个 H 吗?

理论分析 vs 机制分析的分工

  • 理论分析(本节,事前):纯逻辑推演,论证"为什么应该有这个效应、应该经由哪条路径"。不出现回归结果。
  • 机制检验(后文,事后):实证证据,验证理论推演的那条路径是否成立。

错误:在理论分析一节就贴回归表。 正确:理论分析只讲逻辑、导出可检验命题;把数据和回归留给研究设计与机制章节。

竞争性假设 / 对立机制(加分点)

好的理论分析会主动提出对立预期,并说明实证上如何区分。这是审稿人的明显加分项。

机制 A(融资约束缓解)预期:处理后高约束企业反应更大。
机制 B(监管套利)预期:处理后高约束企业反应更小。
本文通过[按融资约束分组的异质性检验]区分二者:若系数在高约束组更大,支持 A、否定 B。

重要方法论提醒:M→Y 的论证责任在理论阶段

机制变量 M 在因果框架下通常不随机(M 由 D 与诸多未观测因素共同决定)。因此实证上不宜直接跑 Y 对 M 的回归来"证明机制"——该系数无因果含义(参见江艇 2022《因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应》,《中国工业经济》2022 年第 5 期)。

由此,M→Y 的合理性主要由理论分析承担:在本节就把"为什么 M 会影响 Y"用已有理论讲透,实证部分只需扎实地估计可信的那一段(通常是 D→M)。理论这一节没把 M→Y 讲清楚,后文机制检验就站不住。

必查清单

  • 已确定写法 A(数理模型)或 B(逻辑推演),且与稿件定位匹配
  • 每个假设都挂在具体理论 / 文献上(夹注:作者,年份)
  • 每个假设方向明确(提高/降低),无"影响""相关"式模糊表述
  • 每个假设可证伪(能写出成立 vs 不成立的可观测差异)
  • 假设之间不重叠(H2 不是 H1 的换词)
  • 每个假设在后文都有对应实证检验(填好"假设-检验"对应表)
  • M→Y 的逻辑在本节用理论讲透(不依赖 Y 对 M 的内生回归)
  • 至少考虑一组竞争性假设 / 对立机制并说明如何区分
  • 若用数理模型,命题与实证设定一一对应(无装饰性模型)

反模式

  • 理论分析写成文献综述的延续(堆砌"谁谁谁发现了什么",不推演本文假设)
  • 假设无方向:"X 影响 Y"而非"X 提高/降低 Y"
  • 假设之间重叠 / 互为换词,凑数量
  • 提出 H2、H3 但后文不检验
  • 为已知实证结果"反向编造"理论(HARKing:先看结果再补假设)
  • 数理模型与实证设定脱节(模型变量后文从未度量)
  • 在理论分析一节直接贴回归表,把"事前推演"做成"事后解释"
  • 用"Y 对 M 的回归显著"当机制证据,却没在理论上论证 M→Y

输出格式

【写法】A 数理模型 / B 逻辑推演
【假设数】H1…Hn
【方向性】全部明确 / 待修:[...]
【挂理论】每个 H 对应文献(作者,年份)
【竞争性假设】有 / 无(如何区分:...)
【M→Y 理论论证】充分 / 待补
【假设-检验对应】完整 / 缺口:[...]
【下一步】er-identification

© brycewang-stanford, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

Just SKILL.md in Economic-Research-Journal-Skills/skills/er-theory-hypotheses of brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills.

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 932eb23

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Questions about Er Theory Hypotheses

What does Er Theory Hypotheses do?

A skill your agent uses when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map…. Er Theory Hypotheses is an agent skill from brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills. Use when writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable, directional, falsifiable hypotheses that map one-to-one onto the empirical design.

When should I use Er Theory Hypotheses?

Er Theory Hypotheses fits situations like: writing the theoretical analysis and hypothesis-development section of an Economic-Research manuscript — deriving testable; falsifiable hypotheses that map one-to-one onto the empirical design.

How do I install Er Theory Hypotheses in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills --skill er-theory-hypotheses -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (Economic-Research-Journal-Skills/skills/er-theory-hypotheses in brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills) into .claude/skills/er-theory-hypotheses in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Er Theory Hypotheses in Codex?

Run `npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills --skill er-theory-hypotheses -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (Economic-Research-Journal-Skills/skills/er-theory-hypotheses in brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills) into .agents/skills/er-theory-hypotheses in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Er Theory Hypotheses in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills --skill er-theory-hypotheses -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/er-theory-hypotheses, .gemini/skills/er-theory-hypotheses, .github/skills/er-theory-hypotheses and .opencode/skills/er-theory-hypotheses in your project.

What does Er Theory Hypotheses need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Er Theory Hypotheses is instructions for the agent only.

Does Er Theory Hypotheses access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Er Theory Hypotheses safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Er Theory Hypotheses use?

Er Theory Hypotheses is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Er Theory Hypotheses use?

About 839 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 3.4k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Er Theory Hypotheses?

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Who maintains Er Theory Hypotheses?

brycewang-stanford (a GitHub user) maintains it in brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills, which has 1,231 GitHub stars. The repository holds 2,387 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on September 27, 2026.

Source: brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.