Roi Calculator

ROI Calculator

This skill helps you calculate and communicate the return on investment for influencer marketing campaigns using various methodologies appropriate for your goals and available data.

Cross-discipline (paid ads): this is the shared return-math engine for paid ads — paid-measurement-loop, attribution-reconciler, and budget-optimizer delegate ROAS/CPA/payback ratios here rather than recomputing them. Save paid runs under memory/ad/roi-calculator/.

Quick Start

Shortest invocation:

Calculate ROI for our influencer campaign: $25K spend, $72K revenue, 2.1M reach

Common scenario — compare methods before reporting:

What's the ROI of our campaign using direct revenue, EMV, and LTV-based methods?

Skill Contract

• Reads: campaign ID, complete opaque creator scope when creator-level math is requested, spend/cost-basis breakdown, deduplicated results data (reach, impressions, engagements, clicks, conversions, attributed revenue, new customers), the predeclared attribution model/window/decision rule, AOV and economic LTV inputs if LTV is in scope, and prior performance output from performance-analyzer. Reuse authorized opaque creator_ref values; raw handles/names/URLs/provider IDs stay transient and never identify a saved row.
• Writes: return the ROI calculation and summary inline by default; save them to memory/influencer/roi-calculator/YYYY-MM-DD-<topic>.md (or the declared paid path) only with exact WARM-save authorization. Saved output uses campaign_id, complete opaque creator_ref scope, and opaque evidence/artifact refs—never raw identity locators.
• Promotes: only with separate exact authorization, promote durable headline numbers with their attribution window, source, and uncertainty to memory/hot-cache.md; a calculation or WARM-save request does not authorize this operation.
• Done when:
  1. At least one ROI methodology is computed with the inputs and formula shown.
  2. Each headline metric is stated against a declared, source-dated comparison target; no universal benchmark is invented.
  3. A bottom-line arithmetic assessment and 1-3 recommendations are written. Call the campaign profitable only when attributed revenue and a complete campaign cost basis are verified; otherwise state that profitability is unverified.
  4. Every denominator is verified numeric and > 0; zero, negative, missing, or incompatible denominators yield undefined/NEEDS_INPUT, never a ratio.
• Primary next skill: report-generator

Handoff Summary

Emit the standard shape from skill-contract.md §Handoff Summary Format.

Data Sources

This family is Tier 1 — it works with no live integrations. Ask the user for spend and results data and compute everything from those inputs. Connectors below can pull the numbers automatically when available:

• ~~social platform analytics — reach, impressions, engagements, video views per platform for EMV and cost-per-metric math.
• ~~ecommerce / analytics — revenue, conversions, link clicks, and AOV for direct ROI and attribution.
• ~~CRM — new-customer counts, repeat-purchase rate, and lifetime value for LTV-based ROI.
• ~~influencer database — per-influencer fees and tier data for by-influencer ROI.

With zero integrations, supply the investment and results tables by hand and the skill still produces every calculation. See CONNECTORS.md for the free/keyless recipe per category.

Instructions

When a user requests ROI calculation, work the steps below. Each step has a fill-in template in references/roi-templates.md — link the step number to its block there.

1. Gather ROI inputs — campaign details, the investment (total spend) table, and the results-data table. (template)

2. Calculate direct ROI — Simple ROI = (Revenue − Investment) / Investment × 100; ROAS = Revenue / Investment. Call the difference net return under the declared formula, not profit, unless the revenue attribution and complete cost basis are verified. State positive/zero/negative arithmetic return and a separate profitability-verification status. (template)

3. Calculate Earned Media Value (EMV) — impression-based (Impressions × comparable CPM / 1000) or engagement-based (Engagements × comparable CPE) only from supplied or cited, source-dated comparators. Report applicable methods separately and use a predeclared selection/weighting rule; never average or add overlapping methods by default. If no valid comparator exists, return NEEDS_INPUT for EMV. (template)

4. Calculate cost-efficiency metrics — CPM, CPR, CPE, CPV, CPC, CPA, and CAC. Compare only against a declared, source-dated target with a compatible market, window, and attribution basis; otherwise report the metric descriptively and mark the comparison pending. (template)

5. Apply attribution modeling — use one predeclared model only after the complete conversion universe, order/event dedupe key, journey touchpoints, eligible channels, and allocation rule are supplied. Optional alternative models are visibly non-additive sensitivity scenarios over the same deduplicated conversion set; never select the most favorable model after seeing results. Missing inputs or model-selection authority returns NEEDS_INPUT, not attributed revenue. (template)

6. Calculate customer lifetime value impact — label the result LTV-Based ROI only when New Customers is deduplicated against the controlling attribution universe and the supplied LTV is a complete contribution-margin basis with cohort, horizon, retention/churn, refunds, margin, discount/timing, first-order inclusion, source/date, and a positive compatible investment denominator. Then use ((New Customers × contribution-margin LTV) − Investment) / Investment × 100. A revenue-LTV input produces only an Estimated revenue-basis scenario with its basis/horizon/status; it is not economic ROI or profit and is never added to direct attributed revenue or another LTV horizon. Missing fields return NEEDS_INPUT. (template)

7. Calculate by-creator ROI — only for a complete locked creator scope with resolved opaque refs, compatible windows/cost bases, and deduplicated attributed revenue. Per-creator and tier aggregate ROAS is sum(attributed revenue) / sum(spend), never a simple mean; rank only under a predeclared rule. (template)

8. Generate the ROI report summary — investment, returns, ROI by methodology, key metrics vs. benchmark, bottom line, and 1-3 recommendations. (template)

9. Qualify candidate Return (R) evidence for the gate

   The financial outputs from steps 1–8 are candidate Return (R) evidence for STAR: ROI/ROAS read against the declared target (R1) and the alternative-channel baseline (R3), CPE/CPM/CPA benchmarked on a normalized window (R2), KPI attainment versus the pre-registered target (R4), conversions attributed with a stated method and rigor (R5), and incremental impact separated from baseline where measurable (R6). A field is Measured only when its exact source, entity, observation window, and attribution basis are verified; arithmetic on User-provided or Estimated inputs is Calculated, not Measured. Return evidence applies only at assessment_time: actual; a forecast read has no R1–R6.

   Hand this Return evidence to the creator-content-auditor gate — it folds R into the full actual STAR run and computes the profile-weighted SQS. This skill does not run the scorer or emit the composite. Unverified conversions emit results-unverified: report R1/R2/R5 as low-confidence and make no attributable-return claims. These financial numbers are consumed as R evidence; they are not themselves an SQS.

   For a multi-creator campaign, the gate scores each creator partnership separately; a budget-weighted mean of the per-partnership SQS values may summarize the campaign but never replaces the per-partnership diagnosis. This skill supplies the per-partnership Return evidence; it does not aggregate or roll up a composite.

10. Persist only with permission — save under memory/influencer/roi-calculator/ (or the paid path) only after authorization; request separate authorization for hot-cache promotion.