TAM SAM SOM Calculator
deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills
Calculates total, serviceable available and serviceable obtainable market size for a product idea with explicit assumptions, methods and caveats.
TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing with top-down and bottom-up estimation methods, cross-validation of assumptions, and divergence reconciliation.
Install Market Sizing
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit market-sizing --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/market-sizing .claude/skills/market-sizing && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "market-sizing" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizing into .claude/skills/market-sizing/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "market-sizing", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizingType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit market-sizing --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/market-sizing .agents/skills/market-sizing && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "market-sizing" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizing into .agents/skills/market-sizing/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "market-sizing", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit market-sizing --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/market-sizing .cursor/skills/market-sizing && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "market-sizing" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizing into .cursor/skills/market-sizing/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "market-sizing", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git --path src/skills/market-sizing--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit market-sizing --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/market-sizing .gemini/skills/market-sizing && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "market-sizing" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizing into .gemini/skills/market-sizing/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "market-sizing", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit market-sizingInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/market-sizing .github/skills/market-sizing && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "market-sizing" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizing into .github/skills/market-sizing/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "market-sizing", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit market-sizing --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/market-sizing .opencode/skills/market-sizing && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "market-sizing" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/market-sizing into .opencode/skills/market-sizing/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "market-sizing", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
market-sizing- GitHub stars
- 292
- Token cost
- ~1.3k tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 271 words
- Files
- 5 (incl. references)
- Skills in repo
- 108
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing with top-down and bottom-up estimation methods, cross-validation of assumptions, and divergence reconciliation.
- Estimating addressable markets
- SKILL.md covers Definitions, When to Use Top-Down vs.…, Quick Formulas and Example: AI Code Review Tool, plus 5 more sections
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
- Validating opportunity size
What it does
Market Sizing is an agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit. TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing with top-down and bottom-up estimation methods, cross-validation of assumptions, and divergence reconciliation. Generates investor-ready materials with growth projections and confidence intervals. Use when estimating addressable markets, validating opportunity size, or preparing pitch deck market slides.
Its SKILL.md is about 1.3k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 6 other files, including reference files (for example `references/tam-sam-som-guide.md`, `rules/_sections.md` and `rules/market-tam-sam-som.md`). Compatibility notes: Claude Code 2.1.277+
It sits in Product & Project Management, covering Market sizing. The repository describes itself as: The Complete AI Development Toolkit for Claude Code. 106 skills, 36 agents, 171 hooks. Install ork for stable (v9.x), or ork-alpha for the v10 line, which ships daily. The licence is MIT.
When your agent uses it
- Estimating addressable markets
- Validating opportunity size
- Preparing pitch deck market slides
Example prompts
- “/market-sizing”
Requirements
- Compatibility (from SKILL.md): Claude Code 2.1.277+
- Pre-approved tools (allowed-tools): Read, Glob, Grep, WebFetch, WebSearch
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit e4ff8d9. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves these tools, so the agent can use them without asking each time:
ReadGlobGrepWebFetchWebSearch
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are markdown).
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Compatibility
Claude Code 2.1.277+
From compatibility in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Context cost
Market Sizing loads about 1.3k tokens when it runs, and up to ~2.3k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 86 tokens; SKILL.md has 271 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from yonatangross/orchestkit at commit e4ff8d9, republished under its MIT licence (© yonatangross). 271 words, ~1,274 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/market-sizing/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 4 other files; get the full folder from GitHub.- name
- market-sizing
- description
- TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing with top-down and bottom-up estimation methods, cross-validation of assumptions, and divergence reconciliation. Generates investor-ready materials with growth projections and confidence intervals. Use when estimating addressable markets, validating opportunity size, or preparing pitch deck market slides.
- allowed-tools
- Read, Glob, Grep, WebFetch, WebSearch
- compatibility
- Claude Code 2.1.277+
- user-invocable
- false
- disable-model-invocation
- false
- metadata.owner-agent
- product-strategist
- metadata.category
- document-asset-creation
- metadata.version
- 1.0.0
- metadata.author
- OrchestKit
- metadata.complexity
- medium
- metadata.tags
- tam, sam, som, market-size, addressable-market, opportunity-sizing
Market Sizing
TAM/SAM/SOM framework for estimating addressable market and validating opportunity size.
Definitions
| Metric | Definition | Question It Answers |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | Total Addressable Market — everyone who could possibly buy | "What's the theoretical ceiling?" |
| SAM | Serviceable Addressable Market — segment you can actually reach | "What can we realistically target?" |
| SOM | Serviceable Obtainable Market — realistic share in 3 years | "What will we actually capture?" |
+-------------------------------------------------------+
| TAM |
| +---------------------------------------------------+ |
| | SAM | |
| | +-----------------------------------------------+| |
| | | SOM || |
| | +-----------------------------------------------+| |
| +---------------------------------------------------+ |
+-------------------------------------------------------+When to Use Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up
| Method | Use When | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Top-Down | Industry reports exist; investor pitch; quick estimate | Overestimates SOM |
| Bottom-Up | Sales capacity known; pricing validated; more credible | More work; requires assumptions |
| Both (recommended) | High-stakes decisions; fundraising; board decks | Cross-validate to build confidence |
Always cross-validate both methods and reconcile within 20%. If they diverge by more than that, revisit your assumptions.
Quick Formulas
Top-Down
TAM = (# potential customers) × (annual value per customer)
SAM = TAM × (% your solution can address)
SOM = SAM × (realistic market share % in 3 years)
Bottom-Up
SOM = (# customers you can acquire) × (average deal size)
SAM = SOM / (your expected market share %)
TAM = SAM / (your segment as % of total market)Example: AI Code Review Tool
## Market Sizing: AI Code Review Tool
### Top-Down
TAM
- Global developers: 28M
- Using code review tools: 60% → 16.8M
- Average annual spend: $300/developer
- TAM = $5.04B
SAM
- Enterprise only (>500 employees): 8M developers
- Willing to pay premium: 40% → 3.2M
- SAM = $960M
SOM
- Sales capacity supports ~$15M ARR (Year 3)
- Realistic market share: 2%
- Unconstrained SOM = $960M × 2% = $19.2M
- Constrained SOM = min($19.2M, $15M) = $15M
### Bottom-Up
- Target accounts Year 1: 50 enterprise deals
- Average ACV: $100K
- Year 1 ARR: $5M
- Year 3 (3× growth): $15M ARR → SOM = $15M
### Reconciled SOM: $15M (confirmed by both methods)SOM Constraint Model
Do not report an unconstrained SOM. Always apply real-world limits:
SOM constraints:
Sales capacity: supports $15M ARR max
Competitive pressure: 5 strong incumbents → −20% market share
Go-to-market reach: 70% of SAM reachable with current channels
Conservative SOM = min(
SAM × target_share%,
sales_capacity_ceiling,
SAM × gtm_reach% × target_share%
)Confidence Levels
| Confidence | Evidence Required |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Multiple corroborating sources, data < 2 years old |
| MEDIUM | Single authoritative source, 1-2 years old |
| LOW | Extrapolated, heavy assumptions, data > 2 years old |
Always label each number with its confidence level in deliverables.
Common Mistakes
| Mistake | Correction |
|---|---|
| TAM = "everyone on earth" | Define a specific, bounded customer segment |
| SOM = 10% of a billion-dollar market | Apply actual sales capacity and GTM constraints |
| Single method only | Cross-validate top-down and bottom-up |
| Old data | Use sources < 2 years old; flag if older |
| Ignoring competition | SOM must account for incumbents' share |
References
- TAM/SAM/SOM Rules — Calculation methods, SOM constraint model, cross-referencing
- TAM/SAM/SOM Guide — Detailed guide with data source recommendations
Related Skills
ork:competitive-analysis— Understand competitive dynamics that constrain SOMork:business-case— Build financial justification once opportunity is sizedork:product-frameworks— Full product strategy toolkit
Version: 1.0.0
© yonatangross, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
SKILL.md and 4 other files (references) in src/skills/market-sizing of yonatangross/orchestkit.
- SKILL.md
- references/tam-sam-som-guide.md
- rules/_sections.md
- rules/market-tam-sam-som.md
- test-cases.json
Open the folder on GitHubat commit e4ff8d9
Compare with similar skills
Market Sizing next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Sizing this skillyonatangross/orchestkit | 292 | — | ~1.3k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| TAM SAM SOM Calculatordeanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills | 7.2k | 1 repos | ~4.8k | Automated safety check: Pass | Custom licence | |
| Market Sizing Analysisnicepkg/auto-company | 195 | 11 repos | ~3.1k | Automated safety check: Pass | None | |
| Management ConsultantDogInfantry/claude-skill-management-consultant-B1 | 136 | — | ~14k | Automated safety check: Pass | Custom licence | |
| Competitor MapperMaxKmet/idea-validation-agents | 478 | — | ~3.3k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Market Sizing Frameworksslgoodrich/agents | 139 | — | ~3.3k | Automated safety check: Pass | Custom licence |
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Market Sizing Frameworks
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Categories
Questions about Market Sizing
What does Market Sizing do?
TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing with top-down and bottom-up estimation methods, cross-validation of assumptions, and divergence reconciliation. Market Sizing is an agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit. TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing with top-down and bottom-up estimation methods, cross-validation of assumptions, and divergence reconciliation.
When should I use Market Sizing?
Market Sizing fits situations like: estimating addressable markets; validating opportunity size; preparing pitch deck market slides.
How do I install Market Sizing in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (src/skills/market-sizing in yonatangross/orchestkit) into .claude/skills/market-sizing in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Market Sizing in Codex?
Run `npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (src/skills/market-sizing in yonatangross/orchestkit) into .agents/skills/market-sizing in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Market Sizing in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill market-sizing -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/market-sizing, .gemini/skills/market-sizing, .github/skills/market-sizing and .opencode/skills/market-sizing in your project.
What does Market Sizing need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Market Sizing is instructions for the agent only. Its frontmatter pre-approves these tools: Read, Glob, Grep, WebFetch, WebSearch. Compatibility (from SKILL.md): Claude Code 2.1.277+.
Does Market Sizing access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Market Sizing safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Market Sizing use?
Market Sizing is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Market Sizing use?
About 1.3k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 5.1k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 1k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.
What are the alternatives to Market Sizing?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Market Sizing: TAM SAM SOM Calculator (deanpeters/Product-Manager-Skills, 7.2k stars), Market Sizing Analysis (nicepkg/auto-company, 195 stars), Management Consultant (DogInfantry/claude-skill-management-consultant-B1, 136 stars) and Competitor Mapper (MaxKmet/idea-validation-agents, 478 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Market Sizing?
yonatangross (a GitHub user) maintains it in yonatangross/orchestkit, which has 292 GitHub stars. The repository holds 108 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 10, 2026.
Source: yonatangross/orchestkit on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.