Agent skill

Yao Bayesian Skill

by yaojingang in yaojingang/yao-open-skills

Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision…

MITAuto-check passedEducation

Install Yao Bayesian Skill

skills CLI
$ npx skills add yaojingang/yao-open-skills --skill yao-bayesian-skill -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install yaojingang/yao-open-skills yao-bayesian-skill --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yaojingang/yao-open-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/yao-bayesian-skill .claude/skills/yao-bayesian-skill && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
yao-bayesian-skill
GitHub stars
1.3k
Token cost
~956 tokens
SKILL.md length
377 words
Files
40 (incl. scripts, references)
Skills in repo
16
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision…

  • Works in 7 steps: Use references/intake-contract.md to… → If input is incomplete, read… → Use… → …
  • Bayes theorem tutoring
  • SKILL.md covers Use This Skill For, Do Not Route Here, Default Workflow and Iteration And Implementation…, plus 2 more sections
  • Generic brainstorming with no report

What it does

Yao Bayesian Skill is an agent skill from yaojingang/yao-open-skills. Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision logs, and Markdown plus bilingual HTML output. Do not use for Bayes theorem tutoring, homework, generic brainstorming with no report, or final licensed medical, legal, or financial advice.

Its SKILL.md is about 960 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 43 other files, including scripts and reference files (for example `agents/interface.yaml`, `evals/semantic_config.json` and `evals/trigger_cases.json`).

It sits in Education, covering Brainstorming, Translation and Tutoring and explanations. The repository describes itself as: OpenYao public skills collection: reusable AI assets for decision-making, business analysis, tutorials, research evidence gathering, and document generation. The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • Bayes theorem tutoring
  • Generic brainstorming with no report
  • Final licensed medical
  • Financial advice

Example prompts

  • “/yao-bayesian-skill”

Workflow steps

7 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. Use references/intake-contract.md to convert the request into one structured decision brief.
  2. If input is incomplete, read references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md; start with a weak prior and ask the minimum next questions.
  3. Use references/evidence-prior-playbook.md to grade evidence and choose the lightest valid update path.
  4. Run references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md; show only the 3-5 principles most relevant to this case.
  5. Maintain the round log: user input, remaining gap, update path, probability change, and decision readiness.
  6. Run scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py for canonical JSON or scripts/generate_report_bundle.py for markdown + html.
  7. Finalize with references/decision-report-contract.md, references/report-export-pipeline.md, and references/sensitivity-and-safety.md.

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 093996e. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    Ships 1 file in scripts/, which the agent can run.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Yao Bayesian Skill loads about 956 tokens when it runs, and up to ~5.6k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 101 tokens; SKILL.md has 377 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~101
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~956
With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them
~5.6k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); the scripts in this folder are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from yaojingang/yao-open-skills at commit 093996e, republished under its MIT licence (© yaojingang). 377 words, ~956 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/yao-bayesian-skill/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 39 other files; get the full folder from GitHub.
name
yao-bayesian-skill
description
Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision logs, and Markdown plus bilingual HTML output. Do not use for Bayes theorem tutoring, homework, generic brainstorming with no report, or final licensed medical, legal, or financial advice.

Yao Bayesian Skill

Use This Skill For

  • structure a vague choice into hypothesis, time horizon, success metric, and actions
  • set a prior, grade evidence, update posterior, compare action thresholds, and recommend next information
  • start from incomplete input with a weak prior, then improve the judgment through multi-turn questioning
  • export one synchronized Chinese-first markdown plus bilingual html report

Do Not Route Here

  • Bayes theorem tutoring or homework-only calculations
  • broad research or brainstorming with no explicit decision report
  • final professional medical, legal, or investment advice

Default Workflow

  1. Use references/intake-contract.md to convert the request into one structured decision brief.
  2. If input is incomplete, read references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md; start with a weak prior and ask the minimum next questions.
  3. Use references/evidence-prior-playbook.md to grade evidence and choose the lightest valid update path.
  4. Run references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md; show only the 3-5 principles most relevant to this case.
  5. Maintain the round log: user input, remaining gap, update path, probability change, and decision readiness.
  6. Run scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py for canonical JSON or scripts/generate_report_bundle.py for markdown + html.
  7. Finalize with references/decision-report-contract.md, references/report-export-pipeline.md, and references/sensitivity-and-safety.md.

Iteration And Implementation Constraints

When extending this skill: state assumptions before coding, keep the smallest valid workflow, touch only files required by the request, and define user-visible success checks before editing. Typical checks: incomplete input yields a weak prior plus follow-up questions; each round is logged; the report explains belief changes; HTML/Markdown still render the intended guidance.

Show full SKILL.md (145 more words)Show less

Output Contract

  • Produce a decision report, not a formula dump; mark numbers as observed, estimated, or assumed.
  • Put the plain-language conclusion and action recommendation before technical sections.
  • Include weak evidence, dependence risk, sensitivity, prior-hygiene checks, and high-risk disclaimers when relevant.
  • For multi-turn use, log prior, posterior, readiness, gaps, and formula/update path for each round.
  • Reports default to Simplified Chinese; HTML also supports Chinese/English switching, sticky navigation, collapsible advanced sections, and top-right Print / Save as PDF.
  • Printing or saving HTML as PDF should expand folded sections first.

Reference Map

  • references/intake-contract.md: request-to-brief conversion
  • references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md: incomplete-input handling and iterative questioning
  • references/evidence-prior-playbook.md: evidence tiers, priors, update-path selection
  • references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md: default judgment priors for checking priors, evidence, and action intensity
  • references/decision-report-contract.md: required report sections and schema alignment
  • references/report-export-pipeline.md: automatic HTML/Markdown generation and bilingual HTML rules
  • references/sensitivity-and-safety.md: sensitivity analysis and high-risk disclaimers
  • scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py: canonical V0/V1 calculation
  • scripts/generate_report_bundle.py: Chinese-first Markdown plus bilingual HTML

© yaojingang, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 39 other files (scripts, references) in skills/yao-bayesian-skill of yaojingang/yao-open-skills.

  • SKILL.md
  • agents/interface.yaml
  • evals/semantic_config.json
  • evals/trigger_cases.json
  • input/bayesian_decision_request.template.json
  • input/detailed_growth_case.json
  • input/geo_overseas_service_case.json
  • input/sanya_travel_case.json
  • input/sanya_travel_real_case.json
  • manifest.json
  • references/decision-report-contract.md
  • references/evidence-prior-playbook.md
  • references/intake-contract.md
  • references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md
  • references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md
  • references/report-export-pipeline.md
  • references/sensitivity-and-safety.md
  • … and 23 more

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 093996e

Compare with similar skills

Yao Bayesian Skill next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Yao Bayesian Skill compared with similar skills
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Gsd Exploreopen-gsd/gsd-core10k2 repos~176Automated safety check: NotesMIT
BrainstormingxenitV1/Antigravity-Workflows130—~1.1kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Knot Theory Educatorcuriositech/some_claude_skills244—~2.6kAutomated safety check: NotesMIT
Yao Meta Skillyaojingang/yao-meta-skill2.7k—~768Automated safety check: PassMIT

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Questions about Yao Bayesian Skill

What does Yao Bayesian Skill do?

Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision…. Yao Bayesian Skill is an agent skill from yaojingang/yao-open-skills. Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision logs, and Markdown plus bilingual HTML output.

When should I use Yao Bayesian Skill?

Yao Bayesian Skill fits situations like: bayes theorem tutoring; generic brainstorming with no report; final licensed medical; financial advice.

How do I install Yao Bayesian Skill in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add yaojingang/yao-open-skills --skill yao-bayesian-skill -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/yao-bayesian-skill in yaojingang/yao-open-skills) into .claude/skills/yao-bayesian-skill in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Yao Bayesian Skill in Codex?

Run `npx skills add yaojingang/yao-open-skills --skill yao-bayesian-skill -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/yao-bayesian-skill in yaojingang/yao-open-skills) into .agents/skills/yao-bayesian-skill in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Yao Bayesian Skill in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add yaojingang/yao-open-skills --skill yao-bayesian-skill -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/yao-bayesian-skill, .gemini/skills/yao-bayesian-skill, .github/skills/yao-bayesian-skill and .opencode/skills/yao-bayesian-skill in your project.

What does Yao Bayesian Skill need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Yao Bayesian Skill is instructions for the agent only.

Does Yao Bayesian Skill access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Yao Bayesian Skill safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. The check reads SKILL.md only: the scripts in the folder are not scanned, so read them before running anything.

What licence does Yao Bayesian Skill use?

Yao Bayesian Skill is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Yao Bayesian Skill use?

About 956 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 3.8k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 4.7k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.

What are the alternatives to Yao Bayesian Skill?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Yao Bayesian Skill: Macro Idea Generation (agentii-ai/agentii-investment-intelligence, 207 stars), Gsd Explore (open-gsd/gsd-core, 10k stars), Brainstorming (xenitV1/Antigravity-Workflows, 130 stars) and Knot Theory Educator (curiositech/some_claude_skills, 244 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Yao Bayesian Skill?

yaojingang (a GitHub user) maintains it in yaojingang/yao-open-skills, which has 1,323 GitHub stars. The repository holds 16 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on August 28, 2026.

Source: yaojingang/yao-open-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.