Income Investment Analysis

Codex adapter note

This skill is generated from skills/income-investment.md so Claude Code and Codex users share one canonical workflow.

• Treat $ARGUMENTS as the user's request in the current Codex thread.
• When the source mentions Claude-only surfaces such as Task, Agent, WebSearch, Bash, Read, or Write, use the closest Codex capability available in this session: subagents when available, web search when needed, shell commands for local tools, and normal file edits for workspace files.
• Use shared project tools from tools/ in this repository. Prefer running commands from the repository root with paths like python3 tools/financial_rigor.py ...; if the current thread starts outside the repo, locate the actual checkout path first instead of assuming a fixed home-directory path.
• Before starting research, run the date command to confirm today's date; treat it as the baseline for "latest" data and state the data cutoff date in the report header. Never assume the current date from training data.
• Preserve the research quality rules from AGENTS.md: cross-check financial data, use exact arithmetic tools for valuation/math, and clearly label uncertainty and source gaps.

Income Investment: Durable and Opportunistic Distribution Analysis

Analyze $ARGUMENTS to answer:

Can this company produce sufficiently durable and attractive distributable income to justify a portfolio role, either as a long-term income conviction or as an opportunistic yield position?

Never treat a high displayed yield as evidence of a good opportunity. This workflow is for learning and research, not personalized investment advice.

Input

Use this command form:

/income-investment "<company or ticker>" [mode=new|existing] [role=core-income|opportunistic-income|unspecified] [quantity=...] [cost_basis=...] [portfolio_weight=...] [target_yield=...] [tax_residence=...] [portfolio_file=...] [horizon=...]

The company or ticker is required. All other fields are optional. Accept equivalent natural-language input. Do not invent missing values: mark them Unknown or Not calculable and state the consequence. In particular, do not estimate net income without the tax residence, account type, applicable treaty, and confirmed withholding treatment.

Related Workflows

Use or refer to existing workflows instead of reproducing them:

income-investment owns the income-specific decision. It must not silently override a current portfolio-review conclusion.

Research Discipline

1. Run date before research. Put the data cutoff date in the report header.
2. Prefer annual and interim reports, earnings releases, investor documents, regulatory filings, official releases, and official exchange data, in that order. Use secondary sources only to fill gaps and label them as secondary.
3. Apply skills/financial-data.md: verify decision-critical financial data with at least two independent sources when available and flag discrepancies above 1%.
4. Date or period-label every time-sensitive figure. Separate every material statement as Verified fact, Estimate, Assumption, or Analytical judgment.
5. Use python3 tools/financial_rigor.py for exact payout, yield, valuation, market-cap, portfolio-income, and scenario arithmetic. Never rely on mental arithmetic for a decision-sensitive result.
6. After saving the report, run the tools/report_audit.py extract and verdict workflow. A report that fails audit is a draft, not publishable research.

Execution Workflow

1. Parse the Request and Establish Data Quality

• Resolve the security, listing, currency, distribution currency, mode, desired role, and optional portfolio inputs.
• State which gross-income, net-income, yield-on-cost, portfolio contribution, and after-trade calculations are possible.
• Rate evidence quality A (complete primary material), B (partial primary material), or C (mostly secondary/incomplete). Materially insufficient fundamentals trigger the INSUFFICIENT DATA gate.

2. Understand the Distribution

Cover at least five years when available:

• frequency; ordinary, special, or variable status; payment currency;
• annual dividend per share and total distributions;
• counts of increases, holds, cuts, and suspensions;
• dividend CAGR, with the exact period and treatment of special dividends;
• indicative announcement, ex-dividend, record, and payment dates.

Explain that waiting for the ex-dividend date is not a free gain: the share price theoretically adjusts by the distribution. The calendar may inform execution timing, but must never justify buying a weak company or delaying a necessary sale.

3. Trace the Cash Available for Distribution

Analyze net-income payout, free-cash-flow payout, cash flow after necessary investment, cash-flow stability and quality, interest coverage, net debt, debt maturities, refinancing needs, maintenance and growth capex, relevant off-balance-sheet commitments, and buybacks competing with dividends.

Do not mechanically apply an EPS payout ratio across sectors:

4. Test Quality and Durability

Assess the business model, moat, pricing power, cyclicality, rate/currency/commodity sensitivity, income predictability, capital allocation, management quality, and the ability to maintain the distribution in a downside case. Distinguish accounting profit from repeatable distributable cash.

5. Value the Income Stream

Analyze current yield, historical average yield, appropriate sector multiples, FCF yield, a reasonable intrinsic-value range, margin of safety, and combined price-decline/dividend-cut scenarios. Yield on cost is retrospective information only and never a reason to keep a position.

6. Calculate Usable Income

Only when inputs support it, calculate annual gross dividend, gross dividend per payment frequency, known source withholding, estimated net income, contribution to portfolio income, and annual income after the proposed trade. If tax or account information is incomplete, show gross income and explain exactly why net income is not calculable. Label treaty rates and tax treatments with jurisdiction, account assumptions, and effective date.