Agent skill

Progressive Estimation

by sickn33 in sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills

Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops

MITAuto-check passedData & Analytics

Install Progressive Estimation

skills CLI
$ npx skills add sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills --skill progressive-estimation -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills progressive-estimation --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/progressive-estimation .claude/skills/progressive-estimation && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
progressive-estimation
GitHub stars
47k
Used in
2 other repos
Token cost
~863 tokens
SKILL.md length
366 words
Files
1
Skills in repo
1,354
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops

  • Works in 7 steps: Mode Detection — Determines if the team… → Task Classification — Categorizes by… → Formula Application — Applies… → …
  • Tasks that involve Performance reviews
  • SKILL.md covers Overview, When to Use This Skill, How It Works and Examples, plus 5 more sections
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

Progressive Estimation is an agent skill from sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills. Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops

Its SKILL.md is about 860 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. It is a single SKILL.md file with no bundled scripts.

It sits in Data & Analytics, covering Performance reviews and Statistics. The repository describes itself as: AAS Core is the local, agent-first control plane for complete catalog discovery, agent-owned selection, stack validation, and planning, backed by 2,400+ agentic skills. Includes… The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • Tasks that involve Performance reviews
  • Tasks that involve Statistics

Example prompts

  • “/progressive-estimation”

Workflow steps

7 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. Mode Detection — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first
  2. Task Classification — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk
  3. Formula Application — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies
  4. PERT Calculation — Produces expected values using three-point estimation
  5. Confidence Bands — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals
  6. Output Formatting — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab
  7. Calibration — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit ec02547. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    Links to these hosts (documentation or services it may open):

    • github.com

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Progressive Estimation loads about 863 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 38 tokens; SKILL.md has 366 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~38
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~863

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills at commit ec02547, republished under its MIT licence (© sickn33). 366 words, ~863 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/progressive-estimation/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).
name
progressive-estimation
description
Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops
category
project-management
risk
safe
source
community
date_added
2026-03-10
author
Enreign
tags
estimation, project-management, pert, sprint-planning, ai-agents
tools
claude

Progressive Estimation

Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work using research-backed formulas with PERT statistics, confidence bands, and calibration feedback loops.

Overview

Progressive Estimation adapts to your team's working mode — human-only, hybrid, or agent-first — applying the right velocity model and multipliers for each. It produces statistical estimates rather than gut feelings.

When to Use This Skill

  • Estimating development tasks where AI agents handle part of the work
  • Sprint planning with hybrid human+agent teams
  • Batch sizing a backlog (handles 5 or 500 issues)
  • Staffing and capacity planning with agent multipliers
  • Release date forecasting with confidence intervals

How It Works

  1. Mode Detection — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first
  2. Task Classification — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk
  3. Formula Application — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies
  4. PERT Calculation — Produces expected values using three-point estimation
  5. Confidence Bands — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals
  6. Output Formatting — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab
  7. Calibration — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates

Examples

Single task:

"Estimate building a REST API with authentication using Claude Code"

Batch mode:

"Estimate these 12 JIRA tickets for our next sprint"

With context:

"We have 3 developers using AI agents for ~60% of implementation. Estimate this feature."

Show full SKILL.md (157 more words)Show less

Best Practices

  • Start with a single task to calibrate before moving to batch mode
  • Feed back actual completion times to improve the calibration system
  • Use "instant mode" for quick T-shirt sizing without full PERT analysis
  • Be explicit about team composition and agent usage percentage

Common Pitfalls

  • Problem: Overconfident estimates Solution: Use P75 or P90 for commitments, not P50

  • Problem: Missing context Solution: The skill asks clarifying questions — provide team size and agent usage

  • Problem: Stale calibration Solution: Re-calibrate when team composition or tooling changes significantly

  • @sprint-planning - Sprint planning and backlog management
  • @project-management - General project management workflows
  • @capacity-planning - Team velocity and capacity planning

Additional Resources

Limitations

  • Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.
  • Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.
  • Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.

© sickn33, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

Just SKILL.md in skills/progressive-estimation of sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills.

Open the folder on GitHubat commit ec02547

Used in 2 other repositories

We found 11 copies of this SKILL.md (exact, near-identical or edited) in other folders, from 2 other GitHub owners. This page covers the copy in sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills, which our catalogue first saw on October 7, 2026.

Compare with similar skills

Progressive Estimation next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Progressive Estimation compared with similar skills
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Progressive Estimation this skillsickn33/agentic-awesome-skills47k2 repos~863Automated safety check: PassMIT
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Bayesian Estimationbrycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills4.5k—~3.4kAutomated safety check: PassCustom licence
Bioconductor PtairmsbioMate-AI/biomate-bioconductor-kb804—~1.5kAutomated safety check: PassCustom licence
Bayesian Workflowbrycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills4.5k—~3.5kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Svybrycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills4.5k—~3.4kAutomated safety check: PassCustom licence

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Questions about Progressive Estimation

What does Progressive Estimation do?

Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops. Progressive Estimation is an agent skill from sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills.

When should I use Progressive Estimation?

Progressive Estimation fits situations like: tasks that involve Performance reviews; tasks that involve Statistics.

How do I install Progressive Estimation in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills --skill progressive-estimation -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/progressive-estimation in sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills) into .claude/skills/progressive-estimation in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Progressive Estimation in Codex?

Run `npx skills add sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills --skill progressive-estimation -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/progressive-estimation in sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills) into .agents/skills/progressive-estimation in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Progressive Estimation in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills --skill progressive-estimation -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/progressive-estimation, .gemini/skills/progressive-estimation, .github/skills/progressive-estimation and .opencode/skills/progressive-estimation in your project.

What does Progressive Estimation need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Progressive Estimation is instructions for the agent only.

Does Progressive Estimation access the network?

SKILL.md names 1 domain. As links in the text: github.com. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Progressive Estimation safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Progressive Estimation use?

Progressive Estimation is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Progressive Estimation use?

About 863 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 3.5k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Progressive Estimation?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Progressive Estimation: Bio Metabolomics Targeted Analysis (GPTomics/bioSkills, 1.2k stars), Bayesian Estimation (brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills, 4.5k stars), Bioconductor Ptairms (bioMate-AI/biomate-bioconductor-kb, 804 stars) and Bayesian Workflow (brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills, 4.5k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Progressive Estimation?

sickn33 (a GitHub user) maintains it in sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills, which has 47,343 GitHub stars. The repository holds 1,354 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 7, 2026.

Source: sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.