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Agent skill

Bayesian Estimation

by brycewang-stanford in brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills

This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science.

Custom licenceAuto-check passedData & Analytics

Install Bayesian Estimation

skills CLI
$ npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills --skill bayesian-estimation -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills bayesian-estimation --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation .claude/skills/bayesian-estimation && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
bayesian-estimation
GitHub stars
4.5k
Token cost
~3.4k tokens
SKILL.md length
1,297 words
Files
4 (incl. references)
Skills in repo
369
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
Custom licence

At a glance

This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science.

  • Works in 4 steps: Use the methods-explorer agent to find… → Set prior mean to the benchmark: e.g.,… → Set prior SD to cover the plausible… → …
  • The user is specifying priors
  • SKILL.md covers When to Use This Skill, When to Use Bayesian Estimation, Prior Elicitation and MCMC Quick Reference, plus 3 more sections
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

Bayesian Estimation is an agent skill from brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills. This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science. Use when the user is specifying priors, running MCMC, diagnosing chain convergence, or reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models, Bayesian structural models, and small-sample settings where priors regularize. Triggers on "Bayesian estimation", "Bayesian inference", "MCMC", "Markov chain Monte Carlo", "Stan", "PyMC", "NumPyro", "prior", "posterior", "credible interval", "Bayesian structural", "Bayesian BLP"…

Its SKILL.md is about 3.4k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 4 other files, including reference files (for example `references/diagnostics-guide.md`, `references/implementation.md` and `references/structural-models.md`).

It sits in Data & Analytics, covering Statistics, Performance reviews and Experimental design. It works with PyMC. The repository describes itself as: 🔬 A curated collection of 23,000+ agent skills for empirical research across 8 social science disciplines. | 精选 23,000+ AI Agent 技能库，覆盖8大社会科学学科的实证研究。CoPaper.AI…

When your agent uses it

  • The user is specifying priors
  • Diagnosing chain convergence
  • Reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models
  • Bayesian structural models

Example prompts

  • “Bayesian estimation”
  • “Bayesian inference”
  • “Markov chain Monte Carlo”
  • “/bayesian-estimation”

Requirements

  • Python 3

Workflow steps

4 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. Use the methods-explorer agent to find reference parameter values
  2. Set prior mean to the benchmark: e.g., price elasticity of -1.2 from literature
  3. Set prior SD to cover the plausible range: if literature range is [-0.5, -2.0], use Normal(-1.2, 0.4) so that the range is roughly within…
  4. Verify with a prior predictive check that implied observables are plausible

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 9fa87d8. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are python).

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Bayesian Estimation loads about 3.4k tokens when it runs, and up to ~9.7k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 228 tokens; SKILL.md has 1,297 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~228
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~3.4k
With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them
~9.7k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

Its licence (Custom licence) doesn't allow us to republish the file, so here is its outline and opening line. It has 1,297 words (~3,361 tokens).

“Reference for Bayesian estimation in quantitative social science: from prior elicitation to MCMC implementation to posterior reporting. Covers the full workflow of specifying a Bayesian model, running inference, diagnosing convergence, and communicating results — with applications to structural models, hierarchical…”

— opening of SKILL.md by brycewang-stanford, Custom licence
name
bayesian-estimation
argument-hint
<model or estimation problem>

Read the full SKILL.md on GitHub

Files

SKILL.md and 3 other files (references) in skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation of brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills.

  • SKILL.md
  • references/diagnostics-guide.md
  • references/implementation.md
  • references/structural-models.md

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 9fa87d8

Compare with similar skills

Bayesian Estimation next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Bayesian Estimation compared with similar skills
SkillStarsUsed inTokensAuto-checkLicenceRepo updated
Bayesian Estimation this skillbrycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills4.5k—~3.4kAutomated safety check: PassCustom licence
Statistical Analysisspacering-net/codeg3.8k3 repos~5kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Statistical Powerspacering-net/codeg3.8k1 repos~3.6kAutomated safety check: NotesMIT
PyMC Bayesian Modelingdavila7/claude-code-templates32k12 repos~3.9kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Data Scientistmagnus919/agent-skills111—~4.1kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Statistical Analystalirezarezvani/claude-skills28k1 repos~2.5kAutomated safety check: PassMIT

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Works with

Categories

Questions about Bayesian Estimation

What does Bayesian Estimation do?

This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science. Bayesian Estimation is an agent skill from brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills. This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science.

When should I use Bayesian Estimation?

Bayesian Estimation fits situations like: the user is specifying priors; diagnosing chain convergence; reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models; bayesian structural models.

How do I install Bayesian Estimation in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills --skill bayesian-estimation -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation in brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills) into .claude/skills/bayesian-estimation in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Bayesian Estimation in Codex?

Run `npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills --skill bayesian-estimation -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation in brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills) into .agents/skills/bayesian-estimation in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Bayesian Estimation in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills --skill bayesian-estimation -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/bayesian-estimation, .gemini/skills/bayesian-estimation, .github/skills/bayesian-estimation and .opencode/skills/bayesian-estimation in your project.

What does Bayesian Estimation need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Bayesian Estimation is instructions for the agent only. Our summary lists: Python 3.

Does Bayesian Estimation access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Bayesian Estimation safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Bayesian Estimation use?

Bayesian Estimation has a licence file (the repository's licence) that doesn't match a standard licence. Read it on GitHub before reusing the skill.

How many tokens does Bayesian Estimation use?

About 3.4k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 13k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 6.3k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.

What are the alternatives to Bayesian Estimation?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Bayesian Estimation: Statistical Analysis (spacering-net/codeg, 3.8k stars), Statistical Power (spacering-net/codeg, 3.8k stars), PyMC Bayesian Modeling (davila7/claude-code-templates, 32k stars) and Data Scientist (magnus919/agent-skills, 111 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Bayesian Estimation?

brycewang-stanford (a GitHub user) maintains it in brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills, which has 4,517 GitHub stars. The repository holds 369 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 5, 2026.

Source: brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.