Agent skill

Score Covariance Estimate

by microprediction in microprediction/precise

Score and compare covariance estimates with precise's assessor panel.

MITAuto-check passed

Install Score Covariance Estimate

skills CLI
$ npx skills add microprediction/precise --skill score-covariance-estimate -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install microprediction/precise score-covariance-estimate --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/microprediction/precise.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/.claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate .claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
score-covariance-estimate
GitHub stars
337
Token cost
~641 tokens
SKILL.md length
263 words
Files
1
Skills in repo
6
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Score and compare covariance estimates with precise's assessor panel.

  • You need to judge an estimate out-of-sample
  • SKILL.md covers The one rule that matters in… and Don't over-read the numbers
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
  • Rank competing estimators — and especially in high dimensions

What it does

Score Covariance Estimate is an agent skill from microprediction/precise. Score and compare covariance estimates with precise's assessor panel. Use when you need to judge an estimate out-of-sample or rank competing estimators — and especially in high dimensions, where the plain held-out likelihood is misleading.

Its SKILL.md is about 640 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. It is a single SKILL.md file with no bundled scripts.

The repository describes itself as: Online Covariance and Correlation Estimation. The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • You need to judge an estimate out-of-sample
  • Rank competing estimators — and especially in high dimensions
  • Where the plain held-out likelihood is misleading

Example prompts

  • “/score-covariance-estimate”

Requirements

  • Python 3

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 2a193c0. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are python).

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Score Covariance Estimate loads about 641 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 66 tokens; SKILL.md has 263 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~66
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~641

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from microprediction/precise at commit 2a193c0, republished under its MIT licence (© microprediction). 263 words, ~641 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).
name
score-covariance-estimate
description
Score and compare covariance estimates with precise's assessor panel. Use when you need to judge an estimate out-of-sample or rank competing estimators — and especially in high dimensions, where the plain held-out likelihood is misleading.

Score / rank covariance estimates

python
from precise import all_assessors, assessor_from_name

for A in all_assessors():
    s = A().score(cov, X_test=X_test, true_cov=Sigma_true)   # higher = better
  • cov is the estimate to judge; X_test is held-out data (rows = observations); true_cov is the population covariance (only available in simulation).
  • Each assessor exposes needs_data and needs_truth; pass what it needs. Truth-free assessors work on real data, truth-requiring ones (e.g. FrobeniusToTruth) only in simulation.
  • All assessors follow higher = better, so you can rank or argmax directly.

The one rule that matters in high dimensions

Do not rank estimators by the held-out Gaussian log-likelihood when p is comparable to n. The likelihood is dominated by the smallest, unidentifiable eigenvalues of the estimate; empirically it ranks estimators below chance in that regime. Instead use inversion-free or block judges:

Regime / goalUse
low dimension, well-conditionedLogLikelihood (it is optimal here)
high dimension (p/n near 1 or larger)BlockPseudoLikelihood, SchurLikelihood, VariogramScore, FrobeniusToTruth (sim only)
economic / portfolio relevanceGMVVariance (out-of-sample minimum-variance variance)
forecasting a variance from a noisy proxya QLIKE / Bregman-consistent loss, not RMSE on the proxy — RMSE on a noisy variance proxy can rank inconsistently

SchurLikelihood(gamma=...) is a tunable bridge: gamma=1 is the full likelihood (fragile in high-d), gamma=0 the robust block-diagonal one, interior values better-conditioned than either.

Don't over-read the numbers

  • Rankings are ensemble-sensitive: a result on one data-generating process need not transfer. If the conclusion matters, sweep several generators and report per-regime (see the assess-covariance-method skill).
  • A lower point error (RMSE) is not a tradable or actionable signal by itself.
  • If you attach significance to a ranking, the loss differentials are usually dependent (overlapping windows, correlated assets); naive standard errors overstate significance — see the inference section of the assess-covariance-method skill.

© microprediction, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

Just SKILL.md in .claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate of microprediction/precise.

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 2a193c0

Compare with similar skills

Score Covariance Estimate next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

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Score Covariance Estimate this skillmicroprediction/precise337—~641Automated safety check: PassMIT
Estimate Immune Score Analysisaipoch/medical-research-skills1.9k—~3.1kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Claw Scoreopenclaw/openclaw392k—~2.5kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Harness Scoreruvnet/ruflo74k—~605Automated safety check: NotesMIT
Task Effort EstimatorDonchitos/Claude-Code-Game-Studios26k—~1.2kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Score Evalsickn33/agentic-awesome-skills47k1 repos~304Automated safety check: PassMIT

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Questions about Score Covariance Estimate

What does Score Covariance Estimate do?

Score and compare covariance estimates with precise's assessor panel. Score Covariance Estimate is an agent skill from microprediction/precise. Score and compare covariance estimates with precise's assessor panel.

When should I use Score Covariance Estimate?

Score Covariance Estimate fits situations like: you need to judge an estimate out-of-sample; rank competing estimators — and especially in high dimensions; where the plain held-out likelihood is misleading.

How do I install Score Covariance Estimate in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add microprediction/precise --skill score-covariance-estimate -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (.claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate in microprediction/precise) into .claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Score Covariance Estimate in Codex?

Run `npx skills add microprediction/precise --skill score-covariance-estimate -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (.claude/skills/score-covariance-estimate in microprediction/precise) into .agents/skills/score-covariance-estimate in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Score Covariance Estimate in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add microprediction/precise --skill score-covariance-estimate -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/score-covariance-estimate, .gemini/skills/score-covariance-estimate, .github/skills/score-covariance-estimate and .opencode/skills/score-covariance-estimate in your project.

What does Score Covariance Estimate need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Score Covariance Estimate is instructions for the agent only. Our summary lists: Python 3.

Does Score Covariance Estimate access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Score Covariance Estimate safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Score Covariance Estimate use?

Score Covariance Estimate is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Score Covariance Estimate use?

About 641 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 2.6k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Score Covariance Estimate?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Score Covariance Estimate: Estimate Immune Score Analysis (aipoch/medical-research-skills, 1.9k stars), Claw Score (openclaw/openclaw, 392k stars), Harness Score (ruvnet/ruflo, 74k stars) and Task Effort Estimator (Donchitos/Claude-Code-Game-Studios, 26k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Score Covariance Estimate?

microprediction (a GitHub user) maintains it in microprediction/precise, which has 337 GitHub stars. The repository holds 6 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 6, 2026.

Source: microprediction/precise on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.