Actuarial Risk Modeling
magnus919/agent-skills
A skill your agent uses when analyzing, selecting, validating, or communicating models for insurance, actuarial, financial-risk, or other consequential uncertain outcomes.
Applies Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates with new evidence, helping make better forecasts and avoid overconfidence.
Install Bayesian Reasoning Calibration
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude bayesian-reasoning-calibration --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration .claude/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "bayesian-reasoning-calibration" agent skill from https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration into .claude/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "bayesian-reasoning-calibration", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibrationType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude bayesian-reasoning-calibration --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration .agents/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "bayesian-reasoning-calibration" agent skill from https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration into .agents/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "bayesian-reasoning-calibration", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude bayesian-reasoning-calibration --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration .cursor/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "bayesian-reasoning-calibration" agent skill from https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration into .cursor/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "bayesian-reasoning-calibration", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git --path skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude bayesian-reasoning-calibration --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration .gemini/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "bayesian-reasoning-calibration" agent skill from https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration into .gemini/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "bayesian-reasoning-calibration", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude bayesian-reasoning-calibrationInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration .github/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "bayesian-reasoning-calibration" agent skill from https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration into .github/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "bayesian-reasoning-calibration", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude bayesian-reasoning-calibration --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration .opencode/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "bayesian-reasoning-calibration" agent skill from https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration into .opencode/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "bayesian-reasoning-calibration", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
bayesian-reasoning-calibration- GitHub stars
- 164
- Token cost
- ~1.6k tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 506 words
- Files
- 5
- Skills in repo
- 12
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- None found
At a glance
Applies Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates with new evidence, helping make better forecasts and avoid overconfidence.
- Making predictions
- SKILL.md covers Table of Contents, Workflow, Common Patterns and Guardrails, plus 1 more section
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
- Judgments under uncertainty
What it does
Bayesian Reasoning Calibration is an agent skill from lyndonkl/claude. Applies Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates with new evidence, helping make better forecasts and avoid overconfidence. Use when making predictions or judgments under uncertainty, forecasting outcomes, evaluating probabilities, testing hypotheses, calibrating confidence, assessing risks with uncertain data, or when user mentions priors, likelihoods, Bayes theorem, probability updates, forecasting, calibration, or belief revision.
Its SKILL.md is about 1.6k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 7 other files (for example `resources/evaluators/rubric_bayesian_reasoning_calibration.json`, `resources/examples/product-launch.md` and `resources/methodology.md`).
It sits in Data & Analytics, covering Performance reviews and Forecasting and time series. The repository describes itself as: Agents, skills and anything else to use with claude.
When your agent uses it
- Making predictions
- Judgments under uncertainty
- Forecasting outcomes
- Evaluating probabilities
Example prompts
- “Use the bayesian-reasoning-calibration skill to apply Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates with new evidence, helping…”
- “/bayesian-reasoning-calibration”
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 4acc337. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are markdown).
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Bayesian Reasoning Calibration loads about 1.6k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 123 tokens; SKILL.md has 506 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
Without a licence we can't republish the file, so here is its outline and opening line. It has 506 words (~1,582 tokens).
“Core formula: P(H|E) = P(E|H) x P(H) / P(E), where P(H) = prior, P(E|H) = likelihood, P(H|E) = posterior.”
- name
- bayesian-reasoning-calibration
Files
SKILL.md and 4 other files in skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration of lyndonkl/claude.
- SKILL.md
- resources/evaluators/rubric_bayesian_reasoning_calibration.json
- resources/examples/product-launch.md
- resources/methodology.md
- resources/template.md
Open the folder on GitHubat commit 4acc337
Compare with similar skills
Bayesian Reasoning Calibration next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Reasoning Calibration this skilllyndonkl/claude | 164 | — | ~1.6k | Automated safety check: Pass | None | |
| Actuarial Risk Modelingmagnus919/agent-skills | 116 | — | ~3.2k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Historical Cost Analyzerdatadrivenconstruction/DDC_Skills_for_AI_Agents_in_Construction | 345 | 1 repos | ~4.1k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Forecasting Expert KnowledgeRightNow-AI/openfang | 18k | — | ~2.5k | Automated safety check: Pass | Apache-2.0 | |
| FRED Macro Time Serieskansoku-trade/kansoku | 328 | — | ~1.1k | Automated safety check: Notes | Custom licence | |
| Longbridge Quanthelsome/folio | 270 | 1 repos | ~1.6k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT |
Similar skills
Historical Cost Analyzer
datadrivenconstruction/DDC_Skills_for_AI_Agents_in_Construction
Analyze historical construction costs for benchmarking, trend analysis, and estimating calibration.
Forecasting Expert Knowledge
RightNow-AI/openfang
Reference knowledge for AI forecasting: superforecasting principles, a signal taxonomy, confidence calibration rules and reasoning chains for making and tracking predictions.
FRED Macro Time Series
kansoku-trade/kansoku
Looks up US and global macro series from St. Louis Fed FRED, such as CPI, GDP, Fed funds, yields, M2 and the dollar index, and reports them with units and dates.
Longbridge Quant
helsome/folio
Quantitative strategy frameworks: pairs trading/cointegration, volatility regime strategies, seasonality/calendar effects, multi-factor models (IC/IR), factor research and screening, correlation…
Quant Statistical Methods
HKUDS/Vibe-Trading
Guides your agent through unit-root, cointegration, GARCH, bootstrap and regression-diagnostic tests on financial time series, using a tested helper module.
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Related
Categories
Questions about Bayesian Reasoning Calibration
What does Bayesian Reasoning Calibration do?
Applies Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates with new evidence, helping make better forecasts and avoid overconfidence. Bayesian Reasoning Calibration is an agent skill from lyndonkl/claude. Applies Bayesian reasoning to systematically update probability estimates with new evidence, helping make better forecasts and avoid overconfidence.
When should I use Bayesian Reasoning Calibration?
Bayesian Reasoning Calibration fits situations like: making predictions; judgments under uncertainty; forecasting outcomes; evaluating probabilities.
How do I install Bayesian Reasoning Calibration in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration in lyndonkl/claude) into .claude/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Bayesian Reasoning Calibration in Codex?
Run `npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration in lyndonkl/claude) into .agents/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Bayesian Reasoning Calibration in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill bayesian-reasoning-calibration -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration, .gemini/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration, .github/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration and .opencode/skills/bayesian-reasoning-calibration in your project.
What does Bayesian Reasoning Calibration need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Bayesian Reasoning Calibration is instructions for the agent only.
Does Bayesian Reasoning Calibration access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Bayesian Reasoning Calibration safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Bayesian Reasoning Calibration use?
No licence was found for Bayesian Reasoning Calibration or its repository. Without one, default copyright applies: ask the author before reusing or redistributing it.
How many tokens does Bayesian Reasoning Calibration use?
About 1.6k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 6.3k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Bayesian Reasoning Calibration?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Bayesian Reasoning Calibration: Actuarial Risk Modeling (magnus919/agent-skills, 116 stars), Historical Cost Analyzer (datadrivenconstruction/DDC_Skills_for_AI_Agents_in_Construction, 345 stars), Forecasting Expert Knowledge (RightNow-AI/openfang, 18k stars) and FRED Macro Time Series (kansoku-trade/kansoku, 328 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Bayesian Reasoning Calibration?
lyndonkl (a GitHub user) maintains it in lyndonkl/claude, which has 164 GitHub stars. The repository holds 12 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on September 1, 2026.
Source: lyndonkl/claude on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.