Run structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration.
$ npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills what-if-oracle --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle' .claude/skills/what-if-oracle && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "what-if-oracle" agent skill from https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracle into .claude/skills/what-if-oracle/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "what-if-oracle", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracleType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills what-if-oracle --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle' .agents/skills/what-if-oracle && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "what-if-oracle" agent skill from https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracle into .agents/skills/what-if-oracle/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "what-if-oracle", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills what-if-oracle --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle' .cursor/skills/what-if-oracle && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "what-if-oracle" agent skill from https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracle into .cursor/skills/what-if-oracle/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "what-if-oracle", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git --path 'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle'--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills what-if-oracle --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle' .gemini/skills/what-if-oracle && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "what-if-oracle" agent skill from https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracle into .gemini/skills/what-if-oracle/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "what-if-oracle", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills what-if-oracleInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle' .github/skills/what-if-oracle && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "what-if-oracle" agent skill from https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracle into .github/skills/what-if-oracle/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "what-if-oracle", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills what-if-oracle --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/'skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle' .opencode/skills/what-if-oracle && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "what-if-oracle" agent skill from https://github.com/LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills/tree/main/skills/04-%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E4%B8%8E%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4/what-if-oracle into .opencode/skills/what-if-oracle/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "what-if-oracle", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
what-if-oracleRun structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration.
What If Oracle is an agent skill from LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills. Run structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration. Use this skill when the user asks speculative questions like "what if...", "what would happen if...", "what are the possibilities", "explore scenarios", "scenario analysis", "possibility space", "what could go wrong", "best case / worst case", "risk analysis", "contingency planning", "strategic options", or any question about uncertain futures. Also trigger when the user faces a fork-in-the-road decision, wants to stress-test an…
Its SKILL.md is about 2.2k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 2 other files, including reference files (for example `references/scenario-templates.md`).
It sits in Testing & QA, covering Load testing. The repository describes itself as: A curated, multilingual library of 182 installable AI agent skills for end-to-end academic research—spanning literature discovery, scientific writing, grant development… The licence is MIT.
4 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit df5a498. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Pre-approves these tools, so the agent can use them without asking each time:
ReadWriteFrom allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Links to these hosts (documentation or services it may open):
doi.orgahkstrategies.netthemindbook.appFrom URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
What If Oracle loads about 2.2k tokens when it runs, and up to ~3.2k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 149 tokens; SKILL.md has 766 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
The full file from LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills at commit df5a498, republished under its MIT licence (© LeonChaoX). 766 words, ~2,189 tokens.
.claude/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 1 other file; get the full folder from GitHub.A structured system for exploring uncertain futures through rigorous multi-branch scenario analysis. Instead of one prediction, the Oracle maps the full possibility space — branching timelines where each path has its own logic, probability, and consequences.
Based on the What-If Statement paradigm: the idea that speculative questions ("What if X?") are not idle daydreaming but a fundamental computing operation — the mind's way of simulating futures before committing resources to one.
Published research: The What-If Statement (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841) | IDNA Consolidation v2 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18807387)
Every scenario analysis has three elements:
The quality of the analysis depends on the precision of the IF. A vague "what if things go wrong?" produces vague results. A precise "what if our primary supplier raises prices 30% in Q3?" produces actionable intelligence.
Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it:
Decompose into components:
If the question is vague, sharpen it:
Present the sharpened question to the user for confirmation before proceeding.
Generate 4-6 scenario branches using this framework:
| Branch | Definition | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Ω Best Case | Everything goes right. Key assumptions all validate. Lucky breaks occur. | Define the ceiling — what's the maximum upside? |
| α Likely Case | Most probable path given current evidence. No major surprises. | Anchor expectations in reality |
| Δ Worst Case | Key assumptions fail. Two things go wrong simultaneously. | Define the floor — what's the maximum downside? |
| Ψ Wild Card | An unexpected variable enters that nobody is tracking. Black swan territory. | Stress-test for the unimaginable |
| Φ Contrarian | The opposite of the consensus view turns out to be true. | Challenge groupthink and reveal hidden assumptions |
| ∞ Second Order | The first-order effects trigger cascading consequences nobody predicted. | Map the ripple effects |
For each scenario branch, provide:
╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ BRANCH: [Ω/α/Δ/Ψ/Φ/∞] — [Branch Name] ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Probability: [X%] ║
║ Timeframe: [When this could materialize] ║
║ Confidence: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW] ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ NARRATIVE: ║
║ [2-3 sentences describing how this ║
║ scenario unfolds step by step] ║
║ ║
║ KEY ASSUMPTIONS: ║
║ • [What must be true for this to happen] ║
║ • [And this] ║
║ ║
║ TRIGGER CONDITIONS: ║
║ • [Early signal that this branch is ║
║ becoming reality] ║
║ • [Second signal] ║
║ ║
║ CONSEQUENCES: ║
║ → Immediate: [What happens first] ║
║ → 30 days: [What follows] ║
║ → 6 months: [Where it leads] ║
║ ║
║ REQUIRED RESPONSE: ║
║ [What action to take if this branch ║
║ activates — specific, actionable] ║
║ ║
║ WHAT MOST PEOPLE MISS: ║
║ [The non-obvious insight about this ║
║ scenario that conventional analysis ║
║ would overlook] ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝After analyzing all branches, provide:
Probability Distribution:
Ω Best Case ····· [██████░░░░] 15%
α Likely Case ··· [████████░░] 45%
Δ Worst Case ···· [██████░░░░] 20%
Ψ Wild Card ····· [███░░░░░░░] 8%
Φ Contrarian ···· [████░░░░░░] 7%
∞ Second Order ·· [███░░░░░░░] 5%Robust Actions: What actions are beneficial across MULTIPLE branches? These are the no-regret moves — do them regardless of which future materializes.
Hedge Actions: What preparations protect against the worst branches without sacrificing upside?
Decision Triggers: What specific, observable signals should cause you to update which branch is most likely? Define the tripwires.
The 1% Insight: What is the one thing about this situation that almost everyone analyzing it would miss? The non-obvious pattern, the hidden assumption, the overlooked variable.
When evidence exists, weight primary scenarios using the golden ratio:
This prevents both overcommitment to a single path and dilution across too many contingencies. Nature uses this ratio for branching (trees, rivers, blood vessels). Strategic planning can too.
3 branches only: Best, Likely, Worst. Short narratives. For fast decisions.
All 6 branches. Full analysis with consequences, triggers, and synthesis. For high-stakes decisions.
Take the output of one Oracle analysis and feed it into another. "If Branch Δ happens, what are the possibilities WITHIN that branch?" Recursive depth for complex strategic planning.
Start from a desired outcome and work backward: "What conditions must be true for X to happen? What's the most likely path TO that outcome?" Useful for goal-setting and strategy design.
Analyze the same What-If from multiple stakeholder perspectives: "If we launch this product, what does the possibility space look like from OUR perspective vs. THEIR perspective vs. THE MARKET's perspective?"
AHK Strategies — AI Horizon Knowledge Full platform: themindbook.app Research: The What-If Statement (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841)
"The future is not empty. It contains completed states that exert pull on the present."
© LeonChaoX, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
SKILL.md and 1 other file (references) in skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle of LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.
Open the folder on GitHubat commit df5a498
We found 1 copy of this SKILL.md (exact, near-identical or edited) in other folders, from 1 other GitHub owner. This page covers the copy in LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills, which our catalogue first saw on October 9, 2026.
What If Oracle next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What If Oracle this skillLeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills | 944 | 1 repos | ~2.2k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Get Available ResourcesK-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills | 48k | 1 repos | ~2.9k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Cpa Identificationfranklee16/academic-research-skills | 223 | 1 repos | ~614 | Automated safety check: Pass | None | |
| Ecta Robustnessfranklee16/academic-research-skills | 223 | 1 repos | ~1.4k | Automated safety check: Pass | None | |
| Jcr Topic Selectionfranklee16/academic-research-skills | 223 | 1 repos | ~1k | Automated safety check: Pass | None | |
| Misq Topic Selectionfranklee16/academic-research-skills | 223 | 1 repos | ~1k | Automated safety check: Pass | None |
K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills
Detects host inventory and effective CPU, memory, disk, scheduler, container, and accelerator limits when a user asks for resource-aware planning or before a clearly resource-sensitive local workload.
franklee16/academic-research-skills
A skill your agent uses when the research design is the bottleneck for a 《中国行政管理》 manuscript — choosing and stress-testing a quantitative, qualitative, or normative design and matching it to the…
franklee16/academic-research-skills
A skill your agent uses when an Econometrica manuscript needs finite-sample evidence and edge-case scrutiny — Monte Carlo design, finite-sample performance, regularity-condition stress tests, and…
franklee16/academic-research-skills
A skill your agent uses when shaping or stress-testing a research question for the Journal of Consumer Research (JCR) — confirming it is a genuine consumer-behavior question with a conceptual…
franklee16/academic-research-skills
A skill your agent uses when shaping or stress-testing a research question for MIS Quarterly — confirming it is a genuine information-systems question, naming which of the four IS traditions…
franklee16/academic-research-skills
A skill your agent uses when shaping or stress-testing a research question for Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (M&SOM) — confirming an operations decision is central, choosing the…
LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills
Generate professional slide deck images from academic papers and content.
LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills
Search the web, extract URL content, and run deep research using the Parallel Chat API and Extract API.
LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills
Generate academic research proposals for PhD applications. An agent skill from LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills.
LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills
Write comprehensive literature reviews for medical imaging AI research.
LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills
Query the Cancer Dependency Map (DepMap) for cancer cell line gene dependency scores (CRISPR Chronos), drug sensitivity data, and gene effect profiles.
LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills
Build and analyze phylogenetic trees using MAFFT (multiple alignment), IQ-TREE 2 (maximum likelihood), and FastTree (fast NJ/ML).
Categories
Run structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration. What If Oracle is an agent skill from LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills. Run structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration.
What If Oracle fits situations like: the user asks speculative questions like what if..; what would happen if..; what are the possibilities; explore scenarios.
Run `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle in LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills) into .claude/skills/what-if-oracle in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
Run `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/04-研究方法与科学思维/what-if-oracle in LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills) into .agents/skills/what-if-oracle in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/what-if-oracle, .gemini/skills/what-if-oracle, .github/skills/what-if-oracle and .opencode/skills/what-if-oracle in your project.
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: What If Oracle is instructions for the agent only. Its frontmatter pre-approves these tools: Read, Write.
SKILL.md names 3 domains. As links in the text: doi.org, ahkstrategies.net and themindbook.app. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What If Oracle is published under the MIT licence (declared in SKILL.md). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
About 2.2k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 8.8k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 1k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.
Skills that share tags, products or a category with What If Oracle: Get Available Resources (K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills, 48k stars), Cpa Identification (franklee16/academic-research-skills, 223 stars), Ecta Robustness (franklee16/academic-research-skills, 223 stars) and Jcr Topic Selection (franklee16/academic-research-skills, 223 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
LeonChaoX (a GitHub user) maintains it in LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills, which has 944 GitHub stars. The repository holds 31 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on July 20, 2026.
Source: LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.
