AI-Trader Market Intel
HKUDS/AI-Trader
Reads AI-Trader's read-only market snapshots, grouped financial news and events board through its market-intel endpoints, for context before trading or posting.
Keeps a written investment thesis for each stock you hold and re-checks it every quarter against new earnings, scoring its health and recommending hold, add, trim or exit.
Install Investment Thesis Tracker
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading thesis-tracker --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker .claude/skills/thesis-tracker && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "thesis-tracker" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker into .claude/skills/thesis-tracker/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "thesis-tracker", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-trackerType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading thesis-tracker --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker .agents/skills/thesis-tracker && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "thesis-tracker" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker into .agents/skills/thesis-tracker/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "thesis-tracker", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading thesis-tracker --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker .cursor/skills/thesis-tracker && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "thesis-tracker" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker into .cursor/skills/thesis-tracker/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "thesis-tracker", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git --path agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading thesis-tracker --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker .gemini/skills/thesis-tracker && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "thesis-tracker" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker into .gemini/skills/thesis-tracker/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "thesis-tracker", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading thesis-trackerInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker .github/skills/thesis-tracker && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "thesis-tracker" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker into .github/skills/thesis-tracker/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "thesis-tracker", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install HKUDS/Vibe-Trading thesis-tracker --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker .opencode/skills/thesis-tracker && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "thesis-tracker" agent skill from https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/tree/main/agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker into .opencode/skills/thesis-tracker/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "thesis-tracker", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
thesis-tracker- GitHub stars
- 35k
- Token cost
- ~2.2k tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 956 words
- Files
- 1
- Skills in repo
- 89
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
Keeps a written investment thesis for each stock you hold and re-checks it every quarter against new earnings, scoring its health and recommending hold, add, trim or exit.
- Writing an investment thesis right after buying a stock
- SKILL.md covers Design Philosophy, Step 1: Decide the Mode, Mode A: Build the Investment… and Mode B: Tracking Check, plus 1 more section
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
- Re-checking a holding's thesis each earnings season
What it does
The skill addresses a common gap: without written sell conditions, investors hold too long, panic-sell on dips, or forget why they bought in the first place. Following Buffett and Li Lu, it writes the sell conditions before the first quarterly check. Whether a thesis file already exists for the company decides the mode automatically, build for the first use or quarterly track for later ones, though a company name can also force a rebuild or a direct quarterly check.
Build mode starts with a web search for the current price, valuation and latest financials, reads any existing research report, and runs valuation and market-cap verification tools before writing anything. The core thesis has to fit five one-sentence answers in 200 words or fewer, covering what the business does, how it makes money, and its moat, among others, and if those five sentences cannot be filled in, the buy decision itself is judged too unclear. The thesis then breaks into three to seven verifiable assumptions, each with a check method and a frequency, plus red-line conditions whose triggering forces a re-evaluation of the whole position.
When your agent uses it
- Writing an investment thesis right after buying a stock
- Re-checking a holding's thesis each earnings season
- Deciding whether to hold, add, trim or exit a position
- Working out why a stock was bought in the first place
Example prompts
- “I just bought this stock. Build the investment thesis for it.”
- “Run the quarterly check on my thesis against the latest earnings.”
- “Force a rebuild of the thesis for this position.”
Requirements
- Web search access for current price and financial data
- A valuation and market-cap verification tool
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 14cabaf. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Investment Thesis Tracker loads about 2.2k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 129 tokens; SKILL.md has 956 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading at commit 14cabaf, republished under its MIT licence (© HKUDS). 956 words, ~2,154 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).- name
- thesis-tracker
- description
- Buy-side discipline system. For each holding, maintain a written investment thesis — core thesis in 5 sentences, falsifiable assumptions, red lines, valuation anchors — and re-check it each quarter against new earnings/events. Scores thesis health 1-10 from assumption breakage and red-line triggers, and recommends hold / add / trim / exit. Use it right after buying a stock (to write the thesis) and every earnings season (to check it). Bridges the research→buy→monitor gap that most investors skip.
- category
- strategy
Investment Thesis Tracker: Post-Buy Discipline
Track an investment thesis for a holding. First use on a company → build the thesis; later uses → quarterly check.
Supported input: company name (auto-decide build vs track); company build (force rebuild); company quarterly check (against latest earnings).
"Buying is only the beginning. The real work is continuous tracking through the holding period." — Li Lu
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" — Keynes
Design Philosophy
Most investors' process is: research → buy → pray. Without systematic post-buy tracking, they: refuse to sell when they should ("wait, it'll come back"); panic-sell when they shouldn't ("down 20%, was I wrong?"); forget why they bought ("why did I buy this again?").
Buffett and Li Lu write down sell conditions before buying, then check the thesis each quarter.
Step 1: Decide the Mode
Check whether a thesis file already exists (use read_file on reports/{company}-thesis.md): not found → Build (Mode A); found → Track (Mode B).
Mode A: Build the Investment Thesis
A0: Data Collection
Use web_search to get the current price, valuation (PE/PB/dividend yield), and latest financials. If a research report exists, read_file it first. Use financial_rigor (command=verify_valuation) to verify valuation, financial_rigor (command=verify_market_cap) to sanity-check market cap.
A1: Core Thesis (must be writable in ≤200 words)
The thesis must answer 5 questions, one sentence each:
I bought {Company} at {price} because:
1. The essence of this business is ___, and I understand how it makes money.
2. Its moat is ___, and it's widening / stable.
3. Management is ___, trustworthy because ___.
4. The current price is a {discount}% to intrinsic value; the margin of safety comes from ___.
5. Even if I'm wrong, downside is contained because ___.If you can't fill 5 sentences, the thesis itself is flawed — the buy decision isn't clear enough.
A2: Core Assumptions List
Break the thesis into verifiable assumptions (3-7 typically; too few = shallow thinking, too many = unfocused):
| # | Core Assumption | How to verify | Frequency | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | e.g. revenue growth stays >15% | Quarterly revenue growth | Quarterly | 🟢 Holding |
| 2 | e.g. gross margin stable >60% | Quarterly gross margin | Quarterly | 🟢 Holding |
A3: Red Lines (triggering any one = must re-evaluate)
| # | Red-line condition | Severity | Action on trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Management integrity problem (fraud, related-party) | Fatal | Exit immediately |
| 2 | Core business revenue down 2 consecutive quarters | Severe | Trim 50%, re-evaluate |
| 3 | Moat explicitly breached (competitor reaches parity) | Severe | Deep research, consider exit |
| 4 | Regulatory change fundamentally alters the business model | Severe | Re-value intrinsic value |
| 5 | Management large unplanned disposal | Warning | Investigate |
| 6 | Macro trend reversal for this name's end-market — e.g. demographic clock (population decline) for consumer/property/education names; consumption downgrade (居民边际消费下降); generational shift away from the category | Severe | Re-evaluate the long-term demand base; for consumer-dependent names, this is often a slow-moving but fatal headwind — assess whether the thesis still holds at a structurally lower growth path |
The red line on macro trends (demographic clock / consumption / generational) is deliberately explicit: a value-investing thesis that picks a consumer name without weighing population decline and consumption-trend headwinds is incomplete. For non-consumer names (e.g. pure B2B industrial), this red line may be loose; for consumer/retail/education/property names, weight it heavily.
Duan Yongping: "There are only three reasons to sell: 1. you got the buy wrong; 2. the fundamentals changed; 3. you found something better."
A4: Valuation Anchors
| Metric | At buy | Optimistic target | Neutral target | Pessimistic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ||||
| PE (TTM) | ||||
| Market cap | ||||
| Intrinsic value estimate | ||||
| Margin of safety |
A5: Save the Thesis
Use write_file to write reports/{company}-thesis.md, including: build date, buy price and position, core thesis (5 sentences), assumptions list, red lines, valuation anchors, tracking table (empty initially).
Mode B: Tracking Check
B1: Read the Existing Thesis
Use read_file to load core thesis, assumptions, red lines, last check record.
B2: Gather Latest Data
Use web_search / get_stock_news / get_financial_statements: ① latest earnings (if new quarter/year); ② recent material events (management, regulation, competition); ③ current price and valuation; ④ insider transactions (major shareholder changes).
Show full SKILL.md (376 more words)Show less
B3: Check Each Assumption
| # | Core Assumption | Last status | Latest evidence | Current status | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Revenue growth >15% | 🟢 Holding | Q4 revenue growth 12% | 🟡 Weakening | ⚠️ |
Status definitions:
- 🟢 Holding — latest data supports
- 🟡 Weakening — still acceptable, but trend is unfavorable
- 🔴 Impaired — data clearly does not support
- ⚫ Broken — assumption has been overturned
B4: Red-Line Check
Check each red line; any triggered → flag prominently in the report + clear action recommendation.
B5: Valuation Update
Use financial_rigor (command=verify_valuation) to recompute PE/PB/ROE; compare against buy-time and last check:
| Metric | At buy | Last check | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ||||
| PE (TTM) | ||||
| Intrinsic value estimate | ||||
| Margin of safety |
B6: Output the Tracking Report
Structure: ① Thesis health score (out of 10); ② Assumption check table; ③ Red-line check table; ④ Key changes this period (≤500 words); ⑤ Valuation update; ⑥ Conclusion and action; ⑦ Focus for next check.
Health formula: 10 - (⚫broken × 3) - (🔴impaired × 2) - (🟡weakening × 1) - (red-lines triggered × 5), min 1, max 10.
| Score | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 9-10 | All assumptions hold, thesis stronger than at buy | Consider adding |
| 7-8 | Core assumptions hold, some weakening | Continue holding |
| 5-6 | 1-2 assumptions impaired, core logic intact | Hold but raise alertness |
| 3-4 | Multiple assumptions impaired, foundation shaken | Consider trimming |
| 1-2 | Red line triggered or core assumption broken | Strongly consider exit |
The conclusion must clearly answer: ① Is the thesis still intact? (intact / weakening / impaired / broken); ② What to do? (add / hold / trim / exit); ③ Next check timing (next earnings / a specific event).
B7: Update the Thesis File
Use write_file to append this check to the tracking table in reports/{company}-thesis.md:
| Check date | Health | Key change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 7/10 | Revenue growth slowed to 12%, but margins improved | Hold |
Key Principles
- Write sell conditions before buying — decisions made calmly beat decisions made in panic.
- Assumptions must be verifiable — "a great company" is not a thesis; "ROE>25% and stable" is.
- Act when a red line triggers — "let's wait and see" is how big losses happen.
- Thesis breaking ≠ stock falling — a 30% price drop doesn't force a sell; a broken thesis does.
- Be honest about mistakes — if the thesis was wrong, admit it; don't defend it to save face.
- Weigh macro headwinds for consumer names — demographic decline and consumption downgrade are slow but can be fatal for consumer/property/education theses; bake them into red lines, not just quarterly checks.
© HKUDS, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
Just SKILL.md in agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker of HKUDS/Vibe-Trading.
Open the folder on GitHubat commit 14cabaf
Compare with similar skills
Investment Thesis Tracker next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Thesis Tracker this skillHKUDS/Vibe-Trading | 35k | — | ~2.2k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| AI-Trader Market IntelHKUDS/AI-Trader | 23k | — | ~1.1k | Automated safety check: Pass | None | |
| Stock Deep Analysis Workflowwbh604/UZI-Skill | 7.1k | — | ~9.1k | Automated safety check: Notes | MIT | |
| Zhengxi Fund Manager Views Librarylyra81604/zhengxi-views | 1.7k | — | ~1.6k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Supply Chain Bottleneck Hunterxbtlin/ai-berkshire | 17k | — | ~2.6k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Deep Company Article Seriesxbtlin/ai-berkshire | 17k | — | ~2k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT |
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Related
Categories
Questions about Investment Thesis Tracker
What does Investment Thesis Tracker do?
Keeps a written investment thesis for each stock you hold and re-checks it every quarter against new earnings, scoring its health and recommending hold, add, trim or exit. The skill addresses a common gap: without written sell conditions, investors hold too long, panic-sell on dips, or forget why they bought in the first place. Following Buffett and Li Lu, it writes the sell conditions before the first quarterly check.
When should I use Investment Thesis Tracker?
Investment Thesis Tracker fits situations like: writing an investment thesis right after buying a stock; re-checking a holding's thesis each earnings season; deciding whether to hold, add, trim or exit a position; working out why a stock was bought in the first place.
How do I install Investment Thesis Tracker in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .claude/skills/thesis-tracker in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Investment Thesis Tracker in Codex?
Run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (agent/src/skills/thesis-tracker in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading) into .agents/skills/thesis-tracker in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Investment Thesis Tracker in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill thesis-tracker -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/thesis-tracker, .gemini/skills/thesis-tracker, .github/skills/thesis-tracker and .opencode/skills/thesis-tracker in your project.
What does Investment Thesis Tracker need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Investment Thesis Tracker is instructions for the agent only. Our summary lists: Web search access for current price and financial data; A valuation and market-cap verification tool.
Does Investment Thesis Tracker access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Investment Thesis Tracker safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Investment Thesis Tracker use?
Investment Thesis Tracker is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Investment Thesis Tracker use?
About 2.2k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 8.6k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Investment Thesis Tracker?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Investment Thesis Tracker: AI-Trader Market Intel (HKUDS/AI-Trader, 23k stars), Stock Deep Analysis Workflow (wbh604/UZI-Skill, 7.1k stars), Zhengxi Fund Manager Views Library (lyra81604/zhengxi-views, 1.7k stars) and Supply Chain Bottleneck Hunter (xbtlin/ai-berkshire, 17k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Investment Thesis Tracker?
HKUDS (a GitHub organization) maintains it in HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, which has 34,949 GitHub stars. The repository holds 89 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 8, 2026.
Source: HKUDS/Vibe-Trading on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.