Stock Connect Flow Analysis

# AH Premium interpretation
ah_premium_index = 130  # A-shares trade 30% above H-shares on average

if ah_premium_index > 140:
    signal = "extreme_ah_premium"
    action = "favor H-shares over A-shares for dual-listed names"
elif ah_premium_index > 125:
    signal = "elevated_ah_premium"
    action = "mild H-share preference"
elif ah_premium_index < 110:
    signal = "compressed_ah_premium"
    action = "A-shares relatively cheap vs H; unusual, investigate"
else:
    signal = "normal_range"

connect_score = {
    "northbound_flow": 0,       # -2 to +2: 20-day cumulative NB flow direction
    "northbound_breadth": 0,    # -2 to +2: number of NB top-10 holdings being added to
    "southbound_flow": 0,       # -2 to +2: 20-day cumulative SB flow direction
    "ah_premium": 0,            # -2 to +2: AH premium level (high = favor HK)
    "fx_direction": 0,          # -2 to +2: CNY strength (strong CNY = NB inflow support)
}

# Total range: -10 to +10
# > +5: strong cross-border risk-on, favor A-shares
# +2 to +5: mild bullish
# -2 to +2: neutral / mixed
# < -2: cross-border risk-off, foreign selling A-shares
# < -5: strong risk-off, likely FX-driven

# Daily Southbound net buy — 港股通（沪）/（深） channels, unit 100M HKD (亿).
# Eastmoney datacenter primary (cross-verified against HKEX official daily
# statistics); HKEX official report as keyless fallback (latest day snapshot):
get_southbound_flow(lookback_days=20)

import tushare as ts
pro = ts.pro_api()

# Daily Northbound/Southbound aggregate flows
df = pro.moneyflow_hsgt(start_date="20260101", end_date="20260330")
# Columns: trade_date, ggt_ss (Shanghai SB), ggt_sz (Shenzhen SB),
#           hgt (Shanghai NB), sgt (Shenzhen NB), north_money, south_money

# Top 10 Northbound active stocks
df = pro.hsgt_top10(trade_date="20260328", market_type="1")  # 1=Shanghai, 3=Shenzhen
# Columns: trade_date, ts_code, name, close, change, rank, market_type,
#           amount (trade amount), net_amount (net buy), buy, sell

import yfinance as yf

# HK-listed stocks price data
tencent = yf.download("0700.HK", start="2025-01-01", end="2026-03-30", progress=False)
alibaba = yf.download("9988.HK", start="2025-01-01", end="2026-03-30", progress=False)

# AH Premium Index (proxy via Hang Seng indices)
hsi = yf.download("^HSI", start="2025-01-01", end="2026-03-30", progress=False)

## Stock Connect Flow Analysis — [Date Range]

### Northbound (Foreign → A-shares)
- **20-day cumulative**: [+/- RMB X.XB]
- **5-day trend**: [accelerating / decelerating / reversing]
- **Daily average**: [RMB X.XB]
- **Quota utilization**: [X%]
- **Signal**: [sustained accumulation / distribution / neutral]

### Northbound Sector Allocation
- **Adding to**: [sector1 (top names), sector2]
- **Reducing**: [sector1, sector2]
- **Rotation direction**: [defensive / cyclical / growth]

### Southbound (Mainland → HK)
- **20-day cumulative**: [+/- HKD X.XB]
- **Focus names**: [Tencent, Alibaba, bank names]
- **Driver**: [dividend yield / tech allocation / AH arbitrage]

### AH Premium
- **Current index**: [XXX]
- **Historical percentile**: [X%]
- **Implication**: [favor H-shares / neutral / favor A-shares]

### Composite Signal
| Dimension | Score (-2~+2) | Basis |
|-----------|---------------|-------|
| NB flow | +1 | Cumulative +RMB 15B over 20 days |
| NB breadth | +2 | Adding across 8 of top 10 |
| SB flow | 0 | Flat |
| AH premium | -1 | AH premium at 135 (H relatively cheap) |
| FX | +1 | CNY stable/strengthening |

### Cross-Market Implication
- **A-share outlook**: [bullish / neutral / bearish] (NB perspective)
- **HK outlook**: [bullish / neutral / bearish] (SB + AH perspective)
- **Arbitrage**: [AH premium trade: buy H / sell A for dual-listed names]