Trade Prediction Markets

Use MCPSearch to select: mcp__workbench__get_all_prediction_events
Use MCPSearch to select: mcp__workbench__get_prediction_market_data
Use MCPSearch to select: mcp__workbench__create_prediction_market_strategy

1. Browse markets:
   get_all_prediction_events(market_category="crypto_rolling")
   → See BTC/ETH price prediction markets

2. Analyze market data:
   get_prediction_market_data(condition_id="0x123...")
   → Study YES/NO token price history

3. Create strategy:
   create_prediction_market_strategy(
       strategy_name="PolymarketArb_M",
       description="Buy YES when price <40%, sell at 55%"
   )

4. Test strategy:
   run_prediction_market_backtest(
       strategy_name="PolymarketArb_M",
       ...
   )

Event: "Will BTC exceed $100,000 by end of hour?"

YES Token:
- Pays $1.00 if event occurs
- Pays $0.00 if event doesn't occur
- Current price = Market's implied probability
- Example: YES token at $0.65 = 65% implied probability

NO Token:
- Pays $1.00 if event DOESN'T occur
- Pays $0.00 if event occurs
- Current price = 1 - YES price
- Example: NO token at $0.35 = 35% implied probability

Total: YES price + NO price ≈ $1.00 (arbitrage if not)

Scenario: YES token at $0.40

Buy YES token:
- Pay $0.40 now
- If event occurs: Receive $1.00 (profit $0.60 = 150% return)
- If event doesn't occur: Lose $0.40 (-100% return)

Risk/Reward:
- Risking $0.40 to make $0.60
- 1.5:1 reward:risk ratio
- Need >40% win rate to break even

Type: Continuous prediction markets
Frequency: Every 15m, 1h, 4h, etc.
Question: "Will BTC price increase next [interval]?"

Example:
- 1h BTC rolling market
- New market every hour
- Predict if BTC closes higher than current price

Use case: Short-term price speculation
Trading style: Active, high frequency

Type: One-time events
Frequency: Varies (elections, policy decisions)
Timeline: Days to months until resolution

Examples:
- "Will candidate X win election?"
- "Will bill Y pass Congress by date Z?"
- "Will Fed cut rates in next meeting?"

Use case: Event speculation
Trading style: Position trading, hold until resolution

Type: Scheduled data releases
Frequency: Monthly, quarterly
Timeline: Fixed resolution dates

Examples:
- "Will CPI exceed 3.5% next month?"
- "Will GDP growth exceed 2% this quarter?"
- "Will unemployment rate decrease?"

Use case: Economic data predictions
Trading style: Position before release, exit at resolution

Type: Game outcomes, championships
Frequency: Varies by sport
Timeline: Hours to months

Examples:
- "Will Team X win game tonight?"
- "Will Player Y score >25 points?"
- "Will Team Z win championship?"

Use case: Sports betting alternative
Trading style: Event-based positions

Concept: Buy underpriced probabilities, sell when corrected

Example:
- Event has ~60% true probability
- YES token priced at $0.45 (implies 45%)
- Buy YES (underpriced)
- Sell when price reaches $0.60 (fair value)

Advantages: Mathematical edge if probability estimation accurate
Disadvantages: Requires good probability estimation

Concept: Follow YES/NO token price momentum

Example:
- YES token price rising from $0.30 → $0.45
- Buy YES (momentum continuing)
- Exit when momentum fades

Advantages: Captures strong moves
Disadvantages: Late entries, whipsaws

Concept: Fade extreme probability movements

Example:
- YES token spikes to $0.85 (85% implied)
- Seems too high, buy NO token ($0.15)
- Exit when reverts toward mean

Advantages: Profits from overreactions
Disadvantages: Catching falling knives (sometimes market is right)

Concept: Trade based on news/catalysts

Example:
- Positive news for candidate X
- Buy YES token before market fully reacts
- Exit after market prices in news

Advantages: Early mover advantage
Disadvantages: Requires fast news reaction

BTC 1h Rolling Market:

Hour 1 (12:00-13:00):
- Market created at 12:00
- Question: "Will BTC close higher at 13:00 than 12:00?"
- YES/NO tokens trade 12:00-13:00
- Resolves at 13:00 based on price change

Hour 2 (13:00-14:00):
- New market created at 13:00
- Previous market resolved
- Profits/losses settled
- Process repeats

Strategy rolls from market to market automatically

class MyPolymarketStrategy(PolymarketStrategy):
    def should_buy_yes(self) -> bool:
        """Check if conditions met for YES token purchase"""
        # Return True to buy YES token

    def should_buy_no(self) -> bool:
        """Check if conditions met for NO token purchase"""
        # Return True to buy NO token

    def go_yes(self):
        """Execute YES token purchase with position sizing"""
        # Calculate position size
        # Buy YES token

    def go_no(self):
        """Execute NO token purchase with position sizing"""
        # Calculate position size
        # Buy NO token

    def should_sell_yes(self) -> bool:
        """Exit YES position"""
        # Return True to sell YES tokens

    def should_sell_no(self) -> bool:
        """Exit NO position"""
        # Return True to sell NO tokens

    def on_market_resolution(self):
        """Handle market settlement"""
        # Called when market resolves
        # Settle P&L

High liquidity: >$50k volume
- Tight spreads
- Easy entry/exit
- Reliable pricing

Low liquidity: <$10k volume
- Wide spreads
- Difficult exits
- Slippage risk

Recommendation: Start with high-volume markets

GOOD: "Will BTC close above $100k at 5pm EST on Jan 1, 2025?"
- Objective resolution source (price data)
- Specific date and time
- No ambiguity

BAD: "Will crypto have a good year in 2025?"
- Subjective ("good" is undefined)
- Ambiguous resolution criteria
- Dispute risk

Check resolution source:
- Data-driven (prices, scores, votes) → Good
- Subjective judgment → Bad
- "Community decides" → High dispute risk

Research past market resolutions:
- Were resolutions fair?
- Any disputed outcomes?
- Market maker credibility