Earnings Revisions and Guidance
HKUDS/Vibe-Trading
Tracks analyst estimate revisions, earnings surprises, management guidance and post-earnings drift for US and Hong Kong stocks, and turns them into long and short signals.
Refuse a verdict a probe did not earn. An agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit.
MITAuto-check passed
Install Paired Probe
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit paired-probe --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/paired-probe .claude/skills/paired-probe && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "paired-probe" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probe into .claude/skills/paired-probe/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "paired-probe", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probeType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit paired-probe --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/paired-probe .agents/skills/paired-probe && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "paired-probe" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probe into .agents/skills/paired-probe/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "paired-probe", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit paired-probe --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/paired-probe .cursor/skills/paired-probe && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "paired-probe" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probe into .cursor/skills/paired-probe/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "paired-probe", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git --path src/skills/paired-probe--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit paired-probe --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/paired-probe .gemini/skills/paired-probe && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "paired-probe" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probe into .gemini/skills/paired-probe/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "paired-probe", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit paired-probeInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/paired-probe .github/skills/paired-probe && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "paired-probe" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probe into .github/skills/paired-probe/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "paired-probe", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install yonatangross/orchestkit paired-probe --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/paired-probe .opencode/skills/paired-probe && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "paired-probe" agent skill from https://github.com/yonatangross/orchestkit/tree/main/src/skills/paired-probe into .opencode/skills/paired-probe/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "paired-probe", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
paired-probe- GitHub stars
- 292
- Token cost
- ~965 tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 413 words
- Files
- 2 (incl. scripts)
- Skills in repo
- 108
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
Refuse a verdict a probe did not earn. An agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit.
- SKILL.md covers When to reach for it, The three gates, Usage and Why this exists, plus 2 more sections
- Runs Shell scripts from its folder; calls bash
What it does
Paired Probe is an agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit. Refuse a verdict a probe did not earn. Runs a check where the fault IS present and where it is NOT, and blocks the answer when both arms print the same thing, because a check that cannot disagree with you has measured nothing. Also catches the zero-sample sweep that reads as "clean" and the swallowed error that reads as success. Use before reporting any status, audit, sweep, or "nothing found" result, and whenever a check surprises you by passing.
Its SKILL.md is about 970 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 2 other files, including scripts (for example `scripts/paired-probe.sh`). Compatibility notes: Claude Code 2.1.277+.
The repository describes itself as: The Complete AI Development Toolkit for Claude Code. 106 skills, 36 agents, 171 hooks. Install ork for stable (v9.x), or ork-alpha for the v10 line, which ships daily. The licence is MIT.
Example prompts
- “nothing found”
- “/paired-probe”
Requirements
- A Bash shell
- Compatibility (from SKILL.md): Claude Code 2.1.277+.
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit e4ff8d9. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
Ships 1 file in scripts/ (Shell), which the agent can run.
Shell commands in SKILL.md call:
bash
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Compatibility
Claude Code 2.1.277+.
From compatibility in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Context cost
Paired Probe loads about 965 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 116 tokens; SKILL.md has 413 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); the scripts in this folder are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from yonatangross/orchestkit at commit e4ff8d9, republished under its MIT licence (© yonatangross). 413 words, ~965 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/paired-probe/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 1 other file; get the full folder from GitHub.- name
- paired-probe
- description
- Refuse a verdict a probe did not earn. Runs a check where the fault IS present and where it is NOT, and blocks the answer when both arms print the same thing, because a check that cannot disagree with you has measured nothing. Also catches the zero-sample sweep that reads as "clean" and the swallowed error that reads as success. Use before reporting any status, audit, sweep, or "nothing found" result, and whenever a check surprises you by passing.
- compatibility
- Claude Code 2.1.277+.
- user-invocable
- false
- disable-model-invocation
- false
- metadata.version
- 1.0.0
- metadata.author
- yonatangross
- metadata.complexity
- low
- metadata.tags
- verification, debugging, quality-gates
paired-probe
A check that prints the same thing whether or not the fault is present has measured nothing. It still returns an answer, that answer looks like evidence, and it gets acted on. This skill makes the blindness fail loudly instead.
When to reach for it
Before reporting any of these, because all of them are verdicts:
- "nothing found", "all clean", "no failures", "safe to delete"
- a sweep, audit, or status roll-up over N items
- a security or CI gate that just went green
- any check that passed when you expected it to fail
And immediately whenever a result surprises you by passing. Surprise is the cheapest available signal that the instrument, not the world, is what changed.
The three gates
| Gate | Question | Failure it catches |
|---|---|---|
| Differential | What does this print when the fault is ABSENT? | A probe that answers identically either way |
| Non-empty | How many items did it actually examine? | A sweep that measured zero and reported clean |
| Exit-aware | Did the probe itself run? | A swallowed error printing success |
Could-not-observe is a third outcome, never folded into either verdict.
Usage
# Differential: stage the fault, then remove it. Both arms must differ.
scripts/paired-probe.sh --name "retired model pin fails the gate" \
--present "printf 'model: claude-opus-4\n' > wf.yml && bash tests/ci/lint.sh" \
--absent "rm -f wf.yml && bash tests/ci/lint.sh"
# Single-shot, when the fault cannot be staged (a live sweep):
scripts/paired-probe.sh --name "worktrees examined" \
--measure "git worktree list --porcelain | awk '/^worktree /{print \$2}'" \
--min-count 1Exit codes: 0 discriminates or met the count, 1 BLIND, 2 usage,
3 could-not-observe.
Show full SKILL.md (218 more words)Show less
Why this exists
Four probes from a single session, 2026-08-21, each confidently wrong and none failing loudly. Three were caught by other people rather than by the check:
| The probe | What it asked | Why it lied |
|---|---|---|
| "is this branch pushed?" | the local ref cache | unfetched and never-pushed print identically |
| "is the branch on origin?" | the remote branch list | a squash-merge DELETES the head branch, so landed work reads as lost |
| "does this worktree hold unique work?" | diff main HEAD | symmetric, so a stale tree flags main against itself |
| "any worktree at risk?" | a loop over a blocked temp file | the write failed, || true swallowed it, the loop read zero items and printed "safe to prune" |
Every one dies at gate 1 or 2 in seconds.
The rule that generalises
Ask what the instrument structurally cannot observe before trusting its silence. A tool reports on the channel it queried, not on reality: the local cache instead of the remote, the whole file instead of the frontmatter, the proxy instead of the origin. When the answer is a zero or an empty set, that is exactly when to check the channel, because zero is what a broken instrument returns too.
Related Skills
ork:verifygrades finished work; this grades the check itself.ork:quality-gatesfor escalation once a real defect is confirmed.
© yonatangross, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
SKILL.md and 1 other file (scripts) in src/skills/paired-probe of yonatangross/orchestkit.
- SKILL.md
- scripts/paired-probe.sh
Open the folder on GitHubat commit e4ff8d9
Compare with similar skills
Paired Probe next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paired Probe this skillyonatangross/orchestkit | 292 | — | ~965 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Earnings Revisions and GuidanceHKUDS/Vibe-Trading | 35k | — | ~2.5k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Pairingalsk1992/CloddsBot | 3k | — | ~1.5k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Runtime Behavior Probeopenai/openai-agents-python | 30k | — | ~3.8k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Visual Verdict Screenshot QAYeachan-Heo/oh-my-claudecode | 40k | — | ~609 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Earnings Forecast and Surprise TradingHKUDS/Vibe-Trading | 35k | — | ~1k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT |
Similar skills
Pairing
alsk1992/CloddsBot
User pairing, authentication, and trust management. An agent skill from alsk1992/CloddsBot.
- Official
Runtime Behavior Probe
openai/openai-agents-python
Plan controlled runtime probes when explicitly invoked; execute only after the required probe approval.
Visual Verdict Screenshot QA
Yeachan-Heo/oh-my-claudecode
Compares a generated UI screenshot with reference images and returns a strict JSON verdict with a score, differences and suggested edits to drive the next iteration.
Earnings Forecast and Surprise Trading
HKUDS/Vibe-Trading
Builds earnings forecasts and compares them with analyst consensus to find surprise trades, using top-down and bottom-up methods, SUE, post-announcement drift and revision momentum; Chinese text.
Browser Pairing for Remote Agents
garrytan/gstack
Lets another AI agent drive your browser: one command creates a setup key and prints connection instructions for the remote agent.
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Questions about Paired Probe
What does Paired Probe do?
Refuse a verdict a probe did not earn. An agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit. Paired Probe is an agent skill from yonatangross/orchestkit. Refuse a verdict a probe did not earn.
How do I install Paired Probe in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (src/skills/paired-probe in yonatangross/orchestkit) into .claude/skills/paired-probe in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Paired Probe in Codex?
Run `npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (src/skills/paired-probe in yonatangross/orchestkit) into .agents/skills/paired-probe in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Paired Probe in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add yonatangross/orchestkit --skill paired-probe -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/paired-probe, .gemini/skills/paired-probe, .github/skills/paired-probe and .opencode/skills/paired-probe in your project.
What does Paired Probe need to run?
Going by SKILL.md and its folder, Paired Probe needs a shell for the scripts in its folder and the command-line tools its instructions call (bash). Our summary lists: A Bash shell. Compatibility (from SKILL.md): Claude Code 2.1.277+..
Does Paired Probe access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Paired Probe safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. The check reads SKILL.md only: the scripts in the folder are not scanned, so read them before running anything.
What licence does Paired Probe use?
Paired Probe is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Paired Probe use?
About 965 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 3.9k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Paired Probe?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Paired Probe: Earnings Revisions and Guidance (HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, 35k stars), Pairing (alsk1992/CloddsBot, 3k stars), Runtime Behavior Probe (openai/openai-agents-python, 30k stars) and Visual Verdict Screenshot QA (Yeachan-Heo/oh-my-claudecode, 40k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Paired Probe?
yonatangross (a GitHub user) maintains it in yonatangross/orchestkit, which has 292 GitHub stars. The repository holds 108 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 10, 2026.
Source: yonatangross/orchestkit on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.