Agent skill

Scenario Analyzer

by tradermonty in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills

Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline.

MITAuto-check passed

Install Scenario Analyzer

skills CLI
$ npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill scenario-analyzer -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install tradermonty/claude-trading-skills scenario-analyzer --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/scenario-analyzer .claude/skills/scenario-analyzer && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
scenario-analyzer
GitHub stars
3k
Used in
1 other repo
Token cost
~2.6k tokens
SKILL.md length
670 words
Files
5 (incl. scripts, references)
Skills in repo
74
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline.

  • Works in 3 steps: Preparation → Agent Invocation → Integration & Report Generation
  • SKILL.md covers Overview, When to Use This Skill, Prerequisites and Architecture, plus 5 more sections
  • Runs Python scripts from its folder

What it does

Scenario Analyzer is an agent skill from tradermonty/claude-trading-skills. Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline. Runs the primary analysis with the scenario-analyst agent and obtains a second opinion with the strategy-reviewer agent. Generates a comprehensive English report covering 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts, recommended stocks, and a critical review. Example: /scenario-analyzer "Fed raises rates by 50bp" Triggers: news analysis, scenario analysis, 18-month outlook, medium-to-long-term investment strategy

Its SKILL.md is about 2.6k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 7 other files, including scripts and reference files (for example `references/headline_event_patterns.md`, `references/scenario_playbooks.md` and `references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md`).

The repository describes itself as: Claude Code skills for equity investors and traders — market analysis, technical charting, economic calendars, screeners, and trading strategy development. The licence is MIT.

Example prompts

  • “Fed raises rates by 50bp”
  • “/scenario-analyzer”

Requirements

  • Python 3

Workflow steps

3 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.

  1. Preparation
  2. Agent Invocation
  3. Integration & Report Generation

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit eab8d5c. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    Ships 1 file in scripts/ (Python), which the agent can run.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Scenario Analyzer loads about 2.6k tokens when it runs, and up to ~9.2k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 119 tokens; SKILL.md has 670 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~119
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~2.6k
With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them
~9.2k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); the scripts in this folder are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from tradermonty/claude-trading-skills at commit eab8d5c, republished under its MIT licence (© tradermonty). 670 words, ~2,567 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/scenario-analyzer/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 4 other files; get the full folder from GitHub.
name
scenario-analyzer
description
Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline. Runs the primary analysis with the scenario-analyst agent and obtains a second opinion with the strategy-reviewer agent. Generates a comprehensive English report covering 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts, recommended stocks, and a critical review. Example: /scenario-analyzer "Fed raises rates by 50bp" Triggers: news analysis, scenario analysis, 18-month outlook, medium-to-long-term investment strategy

Scenario Analyzer

Overview

This skill analyzes medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from a news headline. It invokes two specialized agents in sequence (scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer) and integrates multi-angle analysis with a critical review into a comprehensive report.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

  • You want to analyze the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline
  • You want to construct multiple 18-month scenarios
  • You want sector/stock impacts organized into 1st/2nd/3rd-order effects
  • You need a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion

Examples:

/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

Prerequisites

  • API Keys: None (uses only WebSearch/WebFetch)
  • MCP Servers: None
  • Dependencies: The scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Skill (orchestrator)                              │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 1: Preparation                                                │
│  ├─ Headline parsing                                                 │
│  ├─ Event type classification                                        │
│  └─ Reference loading                                                │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 2: Agent invocation                                           │
│  ├─ scenario-analyst (primary analysis)                              │
│  └─ strategy-reviewer (second opinion)                               │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 3: Integration & report generation                            │
│  └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md                   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation
Step 1.1: Headline Parsing

Parse the headline provided by the user.

  1. Headline check

    • Confirm a headline was passed as an argument
    • If not provided, ask the user for input
  2. Keyword extraction

    • Key entities (company names, country names, institution names)
    • Numeric data (rates, prices, quantities)
    • Actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.)
Step 1.2: Event Type Classification

Classify the headline into one of the following categories:

CategoryExamples
Monetary PolicyFOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike, rate cut, QE/QT
GeopoliticsWar, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction
Regulation & PolicyEnvironmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust
TechnologyAI, EV, renewables, semiconductors
CommoditiesCrude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products
Corporate & M&AAcquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, industry restructuring
Step 1.3: Reference Loading

Based on the event type, load the relevant references:

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

Reference contents:

  • headline_event_patterns.md: Historical event patterns and market reactions
  • sector_sensitivity_matrix.md: Event × sector impact-magnitude matrix
  • scenario_playbooks.md: Scenario-construction templates and best practices

Phase 2: Agent Invocation
Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst

Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
- prompt: |
    Perform an 18-month scenario analysis for the following headline.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Event Type
    [classification result]

    ## Reference Information
    [summary of the loaded references]

    ## Analysis Requirements
    1. Use WebSearch to collect related news from the past 2 weeks
    2. Construct 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (probabilities sum to 100%)
    3. Analyze 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts by sector
    4. Select 3-5 positive- and 3-5 negative-impact stocks (US market only)
    5. Output everything in English

Expected output:

  • List of related news articles
  • Details of the 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
  • Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
  • Stock recommendation list
Step 2.2: Invoke strategy-reviewer

Using the scenario-analyst's results, invoke the review agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
- prompt: |
    Review the following scenario analysis.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Analysis Result
    [the full scenario-analyst output]

    ## Review Requirements
    Review from the following angles:
    1. Overlooked sectors/stocks
    2. Validity of the scenario probability allocation
    3. Logical consistency of the impact analysis
    4. Detection of optimism/pessimism bias
    5. Proposal of alternative scenarios
    6. Realism of the timeline

    Output constructive and specific feedback in English.

Expected output:

  • Pointing out blind spots
  • Opinion on the scenario probabilities
  • Pointing out bias
  • Proposal of alternative scenarios
  • Final recommendations

Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation
Step 3.1: Integrate Results

Integrate the output of both agents to produce the final investment judgment.

Integration points:

  1. Fill in the blind spots raised in the review
  2. Adjust the probability allocation (if needed)
  3. Make the final judgment accounting for bias
  4. Formulate a concrete action plan
Step 3.2: Generate Report

Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file.

Save location: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

markdown
# Headline Scenario Analysis Report

**Analyzed at**: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM
**Target headline**: [the input headline]
**Event type**: [classification category]

---

## 1. Related News Articles
[news list collected by scenario-analyst]

## 2. Scenario Overview (through 18 months out)

### Base Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

### Bull Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

### Bear Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

## 3. Sector / Industry Impact

### 1st-Order Impact (direct)
[impact table]

### 2nd-Order Impact (value chain / related industries)
[impact table]

### 3rd-Order Impact (macro / regulation / technology)
[impact table]

## 4. Stocks Expected to Benefit (3-5 tickers)
[stock table]

## 5. Stocks Expected to Be Hurt (3-5 tickers)
[stock table]

## 6. Second Opinion / Review
[strategy-reviewer output]

## 7. Final Investment Judgment & Implications

### Recommended Actions
[concrete actions informed by the review]

### Risk Factors
[list of key risks]

### Monitoring Points
[indicators / events to follow]

---
**Generated by**: scenario-analyzer skill
**Agents**: scenario-analyst, strategy-reviewer
Show full SKILL.md (270 more words)Show less
Step 3.3: Save the Report
  1. Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist
  2. Save as scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md (e.g., scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md)
  3. Notify the user that the save completed
  4. Do not save directly to the project root

Output

This skill generates the following file:

FileFormatDescription
reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.mdMarkdownComprehensive scenario analysis report

Output contents:

  • List of related news articles
  • 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (with probability allocation)
  • Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
  • Positive/negative stock recommendations
  • Second opinion / review
  • Final investment judgment & implications

Resources

References
  • references/headline_event_patterns.md - Event patterns and market reactions
  • references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md - Sector sensitivity matrix
  • references/scenario_playbooks.md - Scenario-construction templates
Agents
  • scenario-analyst - Primary scenario analysis
  • strategy-reviewer - Second opinion / review

Important Notes

Language
  • All analysis and output are in English
  • Stock tickers remain in their standard (English) symbols
Target Market
  • Stock selection is US-listed equities only
  • ADRs included
Time Horizon
  • Scenarios target 18 months
  • Described in 3 phases: 0-6 months / 6-12 months / 12-18 months
Probability Allocation
  • Base + Bull + Bear = 100%
  • Each scenario's probability is described with its rationale
Second Opinion
  • Mandatory (always invoke strategy-reviewer)
  • Review results are reflected in the final judgment
Output Location (Important)
  • Always save under the reports/ directory
  • Path: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md
  • Example: reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md
  • Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist
  • Must not save directly to the project root

Quality Checklist

Confirm the following before finalizing the report:

  • Is the headline parsed correctly?
  • Is the event type classification appropriate?
  • Do the 3 scenario probabilities sum to 100%?
  • Are the 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts logically connected?
  • Is the stock selection backed by concrete rationale?
  • Is the strategy-reviewer review included?
  • Is the final judgment reflecting the review documented?
  • Is the report saved to the correct path?

© tradermonty, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 4 other files (scripts, references) in skills/scenario-analyzer of tradermonty/claude-trading-skills.

  • SKILL.md
  • references/headline_event_patterns.md
  • references/scenario_playbooks.md
  • references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
  • scripts/tests/test_skill_contract.py

Open the folder on GitHubat commit eab8d5c

Used in 1 other repository

We found 1 copy of this SKILL.md (exact, near-identical or edited) in other folders, from 1 other GitHub owner. This page covers the copy in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills, which our catalogue first saw on October 7, 2026.

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Questions about Scenario Analyzer

What does Scenario Analyzer do?

Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline. Scenario Analyzer is an agent skill from tradermonty/claude-trading-skills. Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline.

How do I install Scenario Analyzer in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill scenario-analyzer -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/scenario-analyzer in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills) into .claude/skills/scenario-analyzer in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Scenario Analyzer in Codex?

Run `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill scenario-analyzer -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/scenario-analyzer in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills) into .agents/skills/scenario-analyzer in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Scenario Analyzer in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill scenario-analyzer -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/scenario-analyzer, .gemini/skills/scenario-analyzer, .github/skills/scenario-analyzer and .opencode/skills/scenario-analyzer in your project.

What does Scenario Analyzer need to run?

Going by SKILL.md and its folder, Scenario Analyzer needs Python for the scripts in its folder. Our summary lists: Python 3.

Does Scenario Analyzer access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Scenario Analyzer safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. The check reads SKILL.md only: the scripts in the folder are not scanned, so read them before running anything.

What licence does Scenario Analyzer use?

Scenario Analyzer is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Scenario Analyzer use?

About 2.6k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 10k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 6.6k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.

What are the alternatives to Scenario Analyzer?

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Who maintains Scenario Analyzer?

tradermonty (a GitHub user) maintains it in tradermonty/claude-trading-skills, which has 2,977 GitHub stars. The repository holds 74 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 9, 2026.

Source: tradermonty/claude-trading-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.