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Agent skill

Thinking Lindy Effect

by tjboudreaux in tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills

A skill your agent uses when longevity of a non-perishable option matters.

MITAuto-check passed

Install Thinking Lindy Effect

skills CLI
$ npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills thinking-lindy-effect --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/thinking-lindy-effect .claude/skills/thinking-lindy-effect && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
thinking-lindy-effect
GitHub stars
1.6k
Token cost
~650 tokens
SKILL.md length
308 words
Files
1
Skills in repo
26
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

A skill your agent uses when longevity of a non-perishable option matters.

  • Works in 6 steps: Confirm non-perishable scope.… → Record survival age. First significant… → Form the Lindy prior. Expected remaining… → …
  • Longevity of a non-perishable option matters
  • SKILL.md covers When to Use, When NOT to Use, Procedure and Output, plus 1 more section
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

Thinking Lindy Effect is an agent skill from tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills. Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.

Its SKILL.md is about 650 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. It is a single SKILL.md file with no bundled scripts.

The repository describes itself as: 28 eval-informed mental models and critical-thinking skills for Claude Code, GitHub Copilot, Codex, Cursor, and other Agent Skills-compatible tools. The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • Longevity of a non-perishable option matters

Example prompts

  • “/thinking-lindy-effect”

Workflow steps

6 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. Confirm non-perishable scope. Concept/tech/practice continues; vendor/device → score fit/risk only and stop.
  2. Record survival age. First significant production use and current age (ecosystem-relative if the ecosystem is young).
  3. Form the Lindy prior. Expected remaining life ≈ current age; mark confidence from age and continued active use.
  4. Run domain-drift checks. Problem class changed? Paradigm shift invalidating old assumptions? New option uniquely closes a real present gap?
  5. Assign burden of proof. Default to the older adequate option. Accept newer only for a stated necessary advantage the Lindy option cannot…
  6. Decide with residual risk. Pick primary; note impact if the prior is wrong and any fallback.

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 7b8fece. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Thinking Lindy Effect loads about 650 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 45 tokens; SKILL.md has 308 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~45
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~650

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills at commit 7b8fece, republished under its MIT licence (© tjboudreaux). 308 words, ~650 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).
name
thinking-lindy-effect
description
Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.
disable-model-invocation
true

Lindy Effect

For non-perishable ideas, technologies, and practices, expected remaining life scales with current survival age. Prefer proven survivors unless the new option clears a burden of proof or the domain has drifted.

When to Use

  • Choosing languages, frameworks, databases, protocols, patterns, or dependencies where long-term survival matters.
  • Skill or architecture bets whose value depends on lasting relevance.
  • Ranking options when ages differ materially and the choice outlives a short experiment.

When NOT to Use

  • Perishable targets: specific SaaS vendors, hardware, fashion, or products that can shut down regardless of concept age.
  • Active paradigm discontinuity where age in the old regime is weak evidence.
  • Throwaway work where longevity is irrelevant — optimize for fit and speed.
  • Treating "older" as "optimal for a new requirement"; survival predicts further survival, not best fit.

Procedure

  1. Confirm non-perishable scope. Concept/tech/practice continues; vendor/device → score fit/risk only and stop.
  2. Record survival age. First significant production use and current age (ecosystem-relative if the ecosystem is young).
  3. Form the Lindy prior. Expected remaining life ≈ current age; mark confidence from age and continued active use.
  4. Run domain-drift checks. Problem class changed? Paradigm shift invalidating old assumptions? New option uniquely closes a real present gap?
  5. Assign burden of proof. Default to the older adequate option. Accept newer only for a stated necessary advantage the Lindy option cannot meet at acceptable cost.
  6. Decide with residual risk. Pick primary; note impact if the prior is wrong and any fallback.

Stop condition: Primary chosen with age prior, drift check, and why new did or did not meet burden of proof.

Output

text
Options: <name, age, Lindy prior>
Drift: stable | discontinuous — <note>
Burden: on new | waived because <gap>
Decision: <primary>
Rejected: <one line each>
If Lindy wrong: <impact + fallback>

Verification

  • Falsify if age was used without non-perishable scope, or a paradigm shift was ignored.
  • Falsify if a new option was rejected solely for youth despite a documented necessary gap.
  • Over-application guard: skip throwaway prototypes and perishable vendor bets where fit and exit cost dominate.

© tjboudreaux, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

Just SKILL.md in skills/thinking-lindy-effect of tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills.

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 7b8fece

Compare with similar skills

Thinking Lindy Effect next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Thinking Lindy Effect compared with similar skills
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Thinking Lindy Effect this skilltjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills1.6k—~650Automated safety check: PassMIT
Optionsasgeirtj/system_prompts_leaks69k—~918Automated safety check: PassCC0-1.0
Scikit SurvivalK-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills48k1 repos~4.1kAutomated safety check: NotesMIT
scikit-survival Time-to-Event Modelingdavila7/claude-code-templates33k11 repos~3.7kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Options Strategy BacktestingHKUDS/Vibe-Trading35k—~2kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Remove Option Or Flaggetsentry/sentry46k—~3kAutomated safety check: PassCustom licence

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Questions about Thinking Lindy Effect

What does Thinking Lindy Effect do?

A skill your agent uses when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Thinking Lindy Effect is an agent skill from tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills. Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters.

When should I use Thinking Lindy Effect?

Thinking Lindy Effect fits situations like: longevity of a non-perishable option matters.

How do I install Thinking Lindy Effect in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/thinking-lindy-effect in tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills) into .claude/skills/thinking-lindy-effect in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Thinking Lindy Effect in Codex?

Run `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/thinking-lindy-effect in tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills) into .agents/skills/thinking-lindy-effect in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Thinking Lindy Effect in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/thinking-lindy-effect, .gemini/skills/thinking-lindy-effect, .github/skills/thinking-lindy-effect and .opencode/skills/thinking-lindy-effect in your project.

What does Thinking Lindy Effect need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Thinking Lindy Effect is instructions for the agent only.

Does Thinking Lindy Effect access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Thinking Lindy Effect safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Thinking Lindy Effect use?

Thinking Lindy Effect is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Thinking Lindy Effect use?

About 650 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 2.6k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Thinking Lindy Effect?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Thinking Lindy Effect: Options (asgeirtj/system_prompts_leaks, 69k stars), Scikit Survival (K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills, 48k stars), scikit-survival Time-to-Event Modeling (davila7/claude-code-templates, 33k stars) and Options Strategy Backtesting (HKUDS/Vibe-Trading, 35k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Thinking Lindy Effect?

tjboudreaux (a GitHub user) maintains it in tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills, which has 1,613 GitHub stars. The repository holds 26 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on August 7, 2026.

Source: tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.