Digital Oracle
komako-workshop/digital-oracle
Answer prediction questions using market trading data, not opinions.
A skill your agent uses when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction.
Install Probability Momentum
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-momentum --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-momentum .claude/skills/probability-momentum && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "probability-momentum" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum into .claude/skills/probability-momentum/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-momentum", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentumType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-momentum --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-momentum .agents/skills/probability-momentum && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-momentum" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum into .agents/skills/probability-momentum/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-momentum", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-momentum --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-momentum .cursor/skills/probability-momentum && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "probability-momentum" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum into .cursor/skills/probability-momentum/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-momentum", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git --path skills/probability-momentum--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-momentum --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-momentum .gemini/skills/probability-momentum && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-momentum" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum into .gemini/skills/probability-momentum/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-momentum", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-momentumInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-momentum .github/skills/probability-momentum && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-momentum" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum into .github/skills/probability-momentum/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-momentum", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-momentum --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-momentum .opencode/skills/probability-momentum && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-momentum" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum into .opencode/skills/probability-momentum/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-momentum", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
probability-momentum- GitHub stars
- 215
- Token cost
- ~686 tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 309 words
- Files
- 1
- Skills in repo
- 31
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
A skill your agent uses when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction.
- Works in 4 steps: One large fill can produce a false… → Thin trades can overstate available… → Late-resolution markets can reverse from… → …
- A Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction
- SKILL.md covers When to use, What the agent should look for, Backtest fit with filled data and Strategy logic, plus 5 more sections
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
What it does
Probability Momentum is an agent skill from Superior-Trade/superior-skills. Use when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction.
Its SKILL.md is about 690 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. It is a single SKILL.md file with no bundled scripts.
It sits in Business, Finance & HR, covering Trading and backtesting. It works with Polymarket. The repository describes itself as: Open agent skills and tool schemas for Superior Trade — build, backtest, and deploy trading strategies on Hyperliquid. The licence is MIT.
When your agent uses it
- A Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction
- Tasks that involve Trading and backtesting
Example prompts
- “/probability-momentum”
Workflow steps
4 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.
- One large fill can produce a false momentum signal.
- Thin trades can overstate available liquidity.
- Late-resolution markets can reverse from mark-to-market gains to a 0/1 close.
- Stale fills can make momentum look cleaner than it was live.
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 9d41db5. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are json).
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Probability Momentum loads about 686 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 29 tokens; SKILL.md has 309 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from Superior-Trade/superior-skills at commit 9d41db5, republished under its MIT licence (© Superior-Trade). 309 words, ~686 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/probability-momentum/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).- name
- probability-momentum
- description
- Use when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction.
- metadata.version
- 0.1.0
- metadata.updated
- 2026-06-17
Strategy: Polymarket · Probability Momentum
When to use
Use this when someone asks for momentum, trend following, breakout, follow-the-crowd behavior, fast-moving crypto milestones, or rapid probability acceleration.
What the agent should look for
- Canonical Polymarket market from
GET /context/markets?venue=polymarket. backtest_ready: true.- Sufficient filled-trade history for the requested lookback window.
- Rising probability on last-trade filled ticks.
- Elevated fill counts or larger notional during the move.
- Market not too close to resolution unless user explicitly accepts expiry risk.
Backtest fit with filled data
Good fit for this archetype. Filled TradeTick history can validate whether momentum would have produced fill-driven entries, exits, and directional exposure.
Limit: filled-trade backtests do not prove maker queue position, maker rebates, or order-book depth. Treat this as taker-style behavior evidence, not certainty.
Strategy logic
Enter YES when recent probability rises more than a threshold over lookback_ticks. Exit when exit_after_ticks is reached, or when momentum stalls if an exit condition is included.
Nautilus strategy shape
subscribe_trade_ticks(instrument_id)to stream TradeTicks.- Use
on_trade_tickas the main event handler. - Submit market or conservative IOC orders.
- Track open position and fill state in
on_order_filled.
Example strategyConfig
{
"lookback_ticks": 5,
"momentum_threshold": 0.02,
"order_size": 10,
"exit_after_ticks": 25,
"max_entries": 3
}Iteration knobs
| Knob | Effect |
|---|---|
lookback_ticks | Larger values reduce noise; smaller values react faster. |
momentum_threshold | Higher values reduce frequency and require stronger momentum. |
order_size | Larger values increase PnL sensitivity and liquidity exposure. |
exit_after_ticks | Shorter values trim quickly; longer values hold trend. |
max_entries | Caps repeated entries in choppy markets. |
Failure modes
- One large fill can produce a false momentum signal.
- Thin trades can overstate available liquidity.
- Late-resolution markets can reverse from mark-to-market gains to a 0/1 close.
- Stale fills can make momentum look cleaner than it was live.
User-facing framing
"This is a probability momentum strategy: it buys when fills and last-trade probability move together in one direction. It is backtestable with filled TradeTicks, but it does not confirm maker queue priority or spread capture."
© Superior-Trade, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
Just SKILL.md in skills/probability-momentum of Superior-Trade/superior-skills.
Open the folder on GitHubat commit 9d41db5
Compare with similar skills
Probability Momentum next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability Momentum this skillSuperior-Trade/superior-skills | 215 | — | ~686 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Digital Oraclekomako-workshop/digital-oracle | 878 | — | ~5.9k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Polyclawchainstacklabs/polyclaw | 359 | 1 repos | ~2k | Automated safety check: Pass | Apache-2.0 | |
| Polymarket TradingBlockRunAI/ClawRouter | 6.6k | — | ~1.4k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Dr Manhattanguzus/dr-manhattan | 204 | — | ~2k | Automated safety check: Pass | Apache-2.0 | |
| Fintoolsecond-state/fintool | 316 | — | ~5.9k | Automated safety check: Pass | None |
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Financial trading CLIs — spot and perp trading on Hyperliquid, Binance, Coinbase, OKX.
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Works with
Categories
Questions about Probability Momentum
What does Probability Momentum do?
A skill your agent uses when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction. Probability Momentum is an agent skill from Superior-Trade/superior-skills. Use when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction.
When should I use Probability Momentum?
Probability Momentum fits situations like: A Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction; tasks that involve Trading and backtesting.
How do I install Probability Momentum in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/probability-momentum in Superior-Trade/superior-skills) into .claude/skills/probability-momentum in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Probability Momentum in Codex?
Run `npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/probability-momentum in Superior-Trade/superior-skills) into .agents/skills/probability-momentum in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Probability Momentum in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-momentum -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/probability-momentum, .gemini/skills/probability-momentum, .github/skills/probability-momentum and .opencode/skills/probability-momentum in your project.
What does Probability Momentum need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Probability Momentum is instructions for the agent only.
Does Probability Momentum access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Probability Momentum safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Probability Momentum use?
Probability Momentum is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Probability Momentum use?
About 686 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 2.7k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Probability Momentum?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Probability Momentum: Digital Oracle (komako-workshop/digital-oracle, 878 stars), Polyclaw (chainstacklabs/polyclaw, 359 stars), Polymarket Trading (BlockRunAI/ClawRouter, 6.6k stars) and Dr Manhattan (guzus/dr-manhattan, 204 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Probability Momentum?
Superior-Trade (a GitHub organization) maintains it in Superior-Trade/superior-skills, which has 215 GitHub stars. The repository holds 31 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on September 10, 2026.
Source: Superior-Trade/superior-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.