Digital Oracle
komako-workshop/digital-oracle
Answer prediction questions using market trading data, not opinions.
A skill your agent uses when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range.
Install Probability Mean Reversion
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-mean-reversion --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-mean-reversion .claude/skills/probability-mean-reversion && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "probability-mean-reversion" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion into .claude/skills/probability-mean-reversion/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-mean-reversion", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversionType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-mean-reversion --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-mean-reversion .agents/skills/probability-mean-reversion && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-mean-reversion" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion into .agents/skills/probability-mean-reversion/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-mean-reversion", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-mean-reversion --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-mean-reversion .cursor/skills/probability-mean-reversion && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "probability-mean-reversion" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion into .cursor/skills/probability-mean-reversion/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-mean-reversion", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git --path skills/probability-mean-reversion--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-mean-reversion --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-mean-reversion .gemini/skills/probability-mean-reversion && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-mean-reversion" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion into .gemini/skills/probability-mean-reversion/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-mean-reversion", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-mean-reversionInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-mean-reversion .github/skills/probability-mean-reversion && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-mean-reversion" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion into .github/skills/probability-mean-reversion/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-mean-reversion", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install Superior-Trade/superior-skills probability-mean-reversion --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/probability-mean-reversion .opencode/skills/probability-mean-reversion && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "probability-mean-reversion" agent skill from https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion into .opencode/skills/probability-mean-reversion/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "probability-mean-reversion", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
probability-mean-reversion- GitHub stars
- 215
- Token cost
- ~623 tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 288 words
- Files
- 1
- Skills in repo
- 31
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
A skill your agent uses when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range.
- Works in 4 steps: Real information shocks rarely… → Markets near resolution can trend… → Low liquidity can create fake extremes. → …
- A Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range
- SKILL.md covers When to use, What the agent should look for, Backtest fit with filled data and Strategy logic, plus 5 more sections
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
What it does
Probability Mean Reversion is an agent skill from Superior-Trade/superior-skills. Use when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range.
Its SKILL.md is about 620 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. It is a single SKILL.md file with no bundled scripts.
It sits in Business, Finance & HR, covering Trading and backtesting. It works with Polymarket. The repository describes itself as: Open agent skills and tool schemas for Superior Trade — build, backtest, and deploy trading strategies on Hyperliquid. The licence is MIT.
When your agent uses it
- A Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range
- Tasks that involve Trading and backtesting
Example prompts
- “/probability-mean-reversion”
Workflow steps
4 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.
- Real information shocks rarely mean-revert.
- Markets near resolution can trend cleanly to 0 or 1.
- Low liquidity can create fake extremes.
- Backtests may look strong when spread and order-book pressure are ignored.
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 9d41db5. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are json).
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Probability Mean Reversion loads about 623 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 32 tokens; SKILL.md has 288 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from Superior-Trade/superior-skills at commit 9d41db5, republished under its MIT licence (© Superior-Trade). 288 words, ~623 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/probability-mean-reversion/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder).- name
- probability-mean-reversion
- description
- Use when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range.
- metadata.version
- 0.1.0
- metadata.updated
- 2026-06-17
Strategy: Polymarket · Probability Mean Reversion
When to use
Use this when someone asks for fade, overreaction, mean reversion, range trading, panic buy, euphoria selloff, or probability jumps with weak follow-through.
What the agent should look for
- Canonical Polymarket market from
GET /context/markets?venue=polymarket. - A stable market with enough historical fills.
- Probability significantly far from a rolling median.
- Weak follow-through after the jump.
- No fresh catalyst changing the thesis.
- Enough time before resolution to allow drift back.
Backtest fit with filled data
Moderate fit. Filled TradeTick history can test whether probability moves have a measurable reversion pattern, while using actual fills as the execution proxy.
Limit: backtests cannot validate resting liquidity, spread paid, or what is missed in the maker queue.
Strategy logic
Enter when the outcome trades below a lower band and exit near the rolling median. If your implementation permits, do the inverse for above-band conditions when downside overextension appears.
Nautilus strategy shape
- Keep a rolling window of trade prices.
- Compute median and deviation thresholds.
- Enter only after sufficient tick history is collected.
- Exit on median reversion or max holding ticks.
Example strategyConfig
{
"window_ticks": 40,
"entry_deviation": 0.08,
"exit_deviation": 0.02,
"order_size": 10,
"max_holding_ticks": 80
}Iteration knobs
| Knob | Effect |
|---|---|
window_ticks | Larger windows produce a smoother baseline. |
entry_deviation | Higher values wait for stronger overreactions. |
exit_deviation | Lower values demand tighter reversion before exit. |
max_holding_ticks | Prevents stale positions through stale conditions. |
Failure modes
- Real information shocks rarely mean-revert.
- Markets near resolution can trend cleanly to 0 or 1.
- Low liquidity can create fake extremes.
- Backtests may look strong when spread and order-book pressure are ignored.
User-facing framing
"This is an overreaction fade. It works best in noisy markets without new decisive information. I’ll backtest it on filled prices first, then verify trade frequency and liquidity before suggesting live use."
© Superior-Trade, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
Just SKILL.md in skills/probability-mean-reversion of Superior-Trade/superior-skills.
Open the folder on GitHubat commit 9d41db5
Compare with similar skills
Probability Mean Reversion next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability Mean Reversion this skillSuperior-Trade/superior-skills | 215 | — | ~623 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Digital Oraclekomako-workshop/digital-oracle | 878 | — | ~5.9k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Polyclawchainstacklabs/polyclaw | 359 | 1 repos | ~2k | Automated safety check: Pass | Apache-2.0 | |
| Polymarket TradingBlockRunAI/ClawRouter | 6.6k | — | ~1.4k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Dr Manhattanguzus/dr-manhattan | 204 | — | ~2k | Automated safety check: Pass | Apache-2.0 | |
| Fintoolsecond-state/fintool | 316 | — | ~5.9k | Automated safety check: Pass | None |
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Dr Manhattan
guzus/dr-manhattan
Trade prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Limitless, Predict.fun) using a unified CCXT-style API.
Fintool
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Financial trading CLIs — spot and perp trading on Hyperliquid, Binance, Coinbase, OKX.
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Build observe-only Polymarket and Kalshi tennis market tooling on the polymarket-tennis Python package (MIT) plus the Live Tennis API free tier.
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Works with
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Questions about Probability Mean Reversion
What does Probability Mean Reversion do?
A skill your agent uses when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range. Probability Mean Reversion is an agent skill from Superior-Trade/superior-skills. Use when a Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range.
When should I use Probability Mean Reversion?
Probability Mean Reversion fits situations like: A Polymarket outcome appears to overreact and then stall away from recent filled-price range; tasks that involve Trading and backtesting.
How do I install Probability Mean Reversion in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/probability-mean-reversion in Superior-Trade/superior-skills) into .claude/skills/probability-mean-reversion in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Probability Mean Reversion in Codex?
Run `npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/probability-mean-reversion in Superior-Trade/superior-skills) into .agents/skills/probability-mean-reversion in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Probability Mean Reversion in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/probability-mean-reversion, .gemini/skills/probability-mean-reversion, .github/skills/probability-mean-reversion and .opencode/skills/probability-mean-reversion in your project.
What does Probability Mean Reversion need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Probability Mean Reversion is instructions for the agent only.
Does Probability Mean Reversion access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Probability Mean Reversion safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Probability Mean Reversion use?
Probability Mean Reversion is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Probability Mean Reversion use?
About 623 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 2.5k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.
What are the alternatives to Probability Mean Reversion?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Probability Mean Reversion: Digital Oracle (komako-workshop/digital-oracle, 878 stars), Polyclaw (chainstacklabs/polyclaw, 359 stars), Polymarket Trading (BlockRunAI/ClawRouter, 6.6k stars) and Dr Manhattan (guzus/dr-manhattan, 204 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Probability Mean Reversion?
Superior-Trade (a GitHub organization) maintains it in Superior-Trade/superior-skills, which has 215 GitHub stars. The repository holds 31 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on September 10, 2026.
Source: Superior-Trade/superior-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.