Geopolitical Market Sim

PrediHermes

PrediHermes is the public name of the geopolitical-market-sim skill.

Use this skill for the local WorldOSINT -> Polymarket -> MiroFish workflow.

If the user wants a terminal dashboard or a JSON-first operator surface over the same local stack, pair this skill with geocatalyst.

Helper script path: ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py

Command policy:

• Prefer predihermes <command> ... if available on PATH.
• Fallback to python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py <command> ....
• Do not stop after one failed shorthand attempt; retry with the full script path.

What it does

• stores tracked geopolitical topics in ~/.hermes/data/geopolitical-market-sim/topics.json
• fetches topic-relevant RSS/news from local WorldOSINT headless modules
• can attach topic-specific WorldOSINT module sets and module params
• searches open Polymarket markets, prefers near-deadline contracts, and pulls top-of-book pricing
• writes a MiroFish-ready seed packet and raw snapshot under ~/.hermes/data/geopolitical-market-sim/runs/...
• writes a cleaner simulation_brief.md per run for graph construction, so local extraction sees the evidence instead of dashboard metadata
• optionally drives the full MiroFish API pipeline with moderate defaults

Treat Iran as an example, not a built-in assumption. This skill is meant for reusable tracked topics.

Default operating mode

Use moderate settings unless the user asks otherwise:

• platform=parallel
• max_rounds=24
• use_llm_for_profiles=false
• enable_graph_memory_update=false
• do not generate the MiroFish report unless the user asks

Keep cast generation deterministic and local by default. Do not use Hermes as the per-round actor engine or as the default cast generator. The right split is:

• local model / rule-based defaults create the cast
• operator overrides come from a profile manifest when manual steering is needed

First checks

Run health before first use or when failures look environmental:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py health

If MiroFish is down, do not claim the simulation ran. If WorldOSINT is down, do not claim the packet is current. If health shows a local LLM endpoint is reachable, do not invent cloud-provider failures from stale memory or old logs. If a tracked topic has an old mirofish_root, the helper should normalize it to the live local checkout automatically.

GeoCatalyst companion terminal

GeoCatalyst is the companion terminal for this skill. Recommend it when the user needs:

• a live TUI for markets, catalysts, sources, and orderbooks
• a JSON-first CLI for another tool, cron flow, or agent
• direct inspection of PrediHermes / MiroFish runs, rounds, actors, and counterfactual branches

Install:

npm install -g geocatalyst

Run:

geocatalyst doctor
geocatalyst stack up
geocatalyst

Headless examples:

geocatalyst market desk --selector "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?" --mode live
geocatalyst market timeline --selector "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?" --mode live
geocatalyst simulation detail --selector "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?" --mode live

Track a topic

Decide these fields up front:

• topic_id: stable slug for scheduling and retrieval
• topic: the event class or forecast theme
• market_query: what to search on Polymarket
• keyword: terms that should survive RSS filtering
• headless_module: which WorldOSINT modules matter for this topic
• module_param: optional per-module overrides

If the user does not specify modules, use:

• news_rss
• intelligence_risk_scores
• military_usni
• intelligence_findings
• polymarket_intel

Contract policy:

• treat the selected primary Polymarket contract as the canonical resolution anchor
• derive the operative date/deadline from the contract question and resolution description, not just the API close timestamp and not just the user's shorthand
• if the user's wording says one date but the selected contract resolves on another, do not silently proceed with the mismatch
• either update the tracked topic so the topic/query matches the selected contract, or tell the operator the contract/date mismatch explicitly
• never "fix" junk actors by hardcoding ad-hoc banned names; filtering must stay dynamic and anchored to the contract question, description, and topic terms

Generic pattern:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  track-topic \
  --topic-id <topic-id> \
  --topic "<topic>" \
  --market-query "<market query>" \
  --keyword <term1> --keyword <term2> \
  --headless-module news_rss

Custom module params use either:

• --module-param 'news_rss.max_total=120'
• --module-param 'news_rss={\"max_total\":120,\"limit_per_feed\":15}'

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  track-topic \
  --topic-id iran-conflict \
  --topic "Iran conflict and nuclear diplomacy" \
  --market-query "Iran nuclear deal" \
  --keyword iran --keyword israel --keyword hormuz --keyword nuclear --keyword enrichment --keyword iaea \
  --region-code IR --region-code IL --region-code SA --region-code US \
  --theater-region "Persian Gulf" \
  --theater-region "Arabian Sea" \
  --theater-region "Red Sea" \
  --theater-region "Eastern Mediterranean Sea"

Run ad hoc without saving

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  run-topic \
  --topic "Iran conflict and nuclear diplomacy" \
  --market-query "Iran nuclear deal" \
  --keyword iran --keyword israel --keyword hormuz --keyword nuclear --keyword enrichment --keyword iaea \
  --simulate

Use run-topic for one-off questions and track-topic plus run-tracked for scheduled workflows.

Run a tracked topic

Seed packet only:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  run-tracked iran-conflict

This is expected to produce a seed-only run. Do not describe a seed-only run as a failed simulation or as an LLM auth problem unless a fresh health check or a direct runtime error proves that.

Seed packet plus MiroFish simulation:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  run-tracked iran-conflict \
  --simulate

If the operator wants to edit or prune the cast before the next run, export a profile manifest from a finished simulation first:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  profile-template \
  --simulation-id sim_0e4e0705893c

Then wire that JSON back into the tracked topic:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  update-topic iran-conflict \
  --set-profile-overrides-path /absolute/path/to/profile-manifest.json

The manifest is operator-editable. Use it to disable weak actors or rewrite entity_type, name, user_name, persona, bio, and related profile fields before the next run.

Manage tracked topics

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py list-topics
python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py untrack-topic <topic-id>

Modular control for tracked topics

List available WorldOSINT modules first:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py list-worldosint-modules

Use update-topic to change modules and execution behavior without recreating the topic:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  update-topic iran-conflict \
  --add-headless-module military_naval \
  --set-module-param 'news_rss.max_total=160' \
  --set-platform parallel \
  --set-max-rounds 36

Useful modular flags:

• --set-headless-module <module> (repeatable): replace module set
• --add-headless-module <module> and --remove-headless-module <module>
• shorthand aliases also work: --set-module, --add-module, --remove-module
• --set-topic <text> and --set-market-query <text>: realign the tracked topic to the actual contract being targeted
• --set-keyword <term>, --add-keyword <term>, --remove-keyword <term>
• --add-region-code <code>, --remove-region-code <code>
• --set-module-param 'module.key=value'
• --remove-module-param module.key or --remove-module-param module
• --set-platform twitter|reddit|parallel
• --set-max-rounds <n>
• --set-profile-overrides-path /absolute/path/to/profile-manifest.json

Natural Hermes ask patterns for module control:

• "Use PrediHermes list-worldosint-modules and propose the best modules for Hormuz risk."
• "Use PrediHermes update-topic iran-conflict and add <module>, remove <module>, then show dashboard."

How to use the output

After a run:

• read run_summary.md
• if simulation ran, read simulation_summary.md
• use the selected primary contract question and description as the resolution anchor
• prefer the contract's own resolution date wording over loose topic labels or stale API close timestamps
• if the selected contract date conflicts with the topic label, say that plainly and normalize the topic before treating future runs as comparable
• separate these clearly in your answer:
  • current market price / bid-ask
• simulation-derived directional view
• what evidence would change the call

Hermes CLI dashboard and command awareness

PrediHermes can print a terminal-native ASCII dashboard so users see pipeline status directly in Hermes:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py dashboard --topic-id iran-conflict

This dashboard shows:

• primary market bid/ask/deadline
• OSINT signal counts (headlines, theme, risk summary, modules)
• curated intelligence findings and matched Polymarket flow
• simulation status/action totals when simulation artifacts exist
• decision call, confidence, and top alerts from the compiled artifact layer

PrediHermes also exposes a Rust local workbench so operators can browse topics, runs, evidence, alerts, accountability, and branch summaries without the web frontend:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  tui \
  --topic-id iran-conflict

The tui command will compile the latest artifacts first, then launch the local workbench. It now includes:

• a large ASCII PREDIHERMES boot header
• a short loading sequence before the control room comes online
• dedicated panes for Topics, Runs, Branches, and Details
• lightweight live motion in the header and signal bars so focus and status stay visible in the terminal

Useful TUI controls:

• 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5: jump focus to Topics, Runs, Branches, Tabs, or Detail
• Tab: cycle focus across panes
• j / k: move inside the active pane
• h / l: change detail tab
• Enter: from Branches, open the selected branch detail directly
• c: print a ready-to-run create-branch command template into the footer based on the selected run
• ?: toggle the help overlay
• r: reload compiled artifacts
• q: quit

If the user wants a non-interactive refresh without opening the workbench:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  compile-artifacts \
  --topic-id iran-conflict

To show command awareness/help for users inside Hermes:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py command-catalog

If the operator wants to create a new counterfactual branch without touching the web UI, use:

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/geopolitical-market-sim/scripts/geopolitical_market_pipeline.py \
  create-branch \
  --base-simulation-id sim_19463d1a091e \
  --actor-name "Swiss backchannel envoy" \
  --entity-type Diplomat \
  --profession Diplomat \
  --country Switzerland \
  --persona "Quiet mediator pushing phased verification and face-saving sequencing." \
  --bio "Backchannel envoy with access to both US and Iranian negotiators." \
  --interested-topic Diplomacy \
  --interested-topic Verification \
  --injection-round 8 \
  --opening-statement "Swiss channel indicates a verification-first formula could still bridge the deadline gap."

Use --start if the user wants the branch launched immediately after creation. Use --wait only when they explicitly want the command to block for branch startup confirmation.

When responding in Hermes, if a user asks “what can PrediHermes do next?”, use command-catalog and then suggest 1-2 relevant next commands.

Do not invent exact resolution criteria if the market description is vague. Say when the market page needs manual verification.