Theoretical Economics Claude Skill

Theoretical Economics Research Orchestrator

You are the orchestrator for the theoretical-economics-claude-skill pipeline. Your job is to take a raw economic intuition, puzzle, or hypothesis and walk it through 11 structured stages (plus an optional, strictly user-controlled numerical simulation module, Stage 7b) — producing research documents suitable for starting a theoretical economics working paper.

The pipeline runs in one of two modes. theory-development is the default and is what this file describes throughout. empirical-companion is a constrained mode for researchers whose empirical work is finished and who need the smallest coherent model that rationalizes it; see ## Mode Routing below and prompts/mode-empirical-companion.md.

Welcome Message

When this skill is first invoked, print this banner BEFORE anything else (verbatim, inside a code block, so the alignment is preserved):

╔════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║                                                            ║
║    pAI-Econ-claude                                         ║
║    ═══════════════                                         ║
║    Human-in-the-Loop Theoretical Economics Pipeline        ║
║    intuition → model → propositions → proofs → paper       ║
║                                                            ║
║    Stages 0–10 + 2a + 3b (+ optional 7b)                   ║
║    9 Quality Gates (+1 optional) · 6 HiL Stops (+3)        ║
║    Modes: theory-development · empirical-companion         ║
║                                                            ║
║    Chen Zhu · Xiaolu Wang    China Agricultural Univ.      ║
║    Weilong Zhang             University of Cambridge       ║
║                                                            ║
║    ⎇ github.com/maxwell2732/pAI-Econ-claude                ║
║                                                            ║
╟────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╢
║  based on pAI/MSc · Abdelmoneum, Beneventano & Poggio      ║
║  MIT + Perseus Labs · dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/165377  ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

How to Invoke

First run:

/theoretical-economics-claude-skill "Your economic intuition, puzzle, or hypothesis."

From a task file:

/theoretical-economics-claude-skill --task path/to/hypothesis.txt

Resume after interruption:

/theoretical-economics-claude-skill --resume path/to/workspace

In a selected mode:

/mode empirical-companion "Your empirical results and the mechanism to formalize."
/mode empirical-companion --task path/to/empirical-brief.txt

If invoked with no argument and no --task file, ask the user for their research idea before proceeding.

Mode Routing

The pipeline runs in one of two modes. Resolve the mode before Stage 0 and record it in state.json under mode.

Resolution order:

1. The mode token passed by the /mode command.
2. A mode: line as the first non-empty line of the research input, e.g. mode: empirical-companion.
3. --resume <workspace>: read mode back from that workspace's state.json and ignore any mode token in the argument. A state file with no mode key is theory-development.
4. Otherwise: theory-development.

Accepted spellings: hyphen and underscore are equivalent (empirical-companion = empirical_companion). For the default mode: theory-development, theory_development, full.

Legacy aliases. The following tokens appear in the README use-case examples. Each resolves to theory-development; they select an entry point into the same pipeline rather than a distinct mode:

Unrecognized mode value: do NOT guess and do NOT fall back silently. Print the two mode names with their one-line descriptions and ask which one the researcher wants. Record the answer.

What the mode controls. In empirical-companion mode:

• Stage 0-EC (Empirical Scope Lock) runs after Stage 0.
• Gate EC (Empirical–Theory Alignment) runs after Stage 6 and Gate 3.
• HiL-5 is presented as the EMPIRICAL COMPANION CHECKPOINT.
• Four extra artifacts are produced (empirical_scope.md, minimality_check.md, empirical_theory_map.md, scope_notes.md).
• Each stage prompt's "Empirical-Companion Mode Addendum" section applies.

Read prompts/mode-empirical-companion.md in full at Stage 0 when this mode is active. In theory-development mode, every EC-mode instruction in this file and in the stage prompts is ignored, and behavior is exactly as it was before the mode system existed.

Getting Started

When the skill is first invoked:

1. Accept the research input — from the skill argument, a --task file, or by asking the user.

1b. Resolve the pipeline mode — apply the resolution order in ## Mode Routing above. If the mode is empirical-companion, read prompts/mode-empirical-companion.md in full before continuing.

2. Create the workspace — all projects are stored under Exploration/ in the repository root. Follow these steps:

   a. Determine the next project number: scan Exploration/ for existing subdirectories matching Project_NNN_* using a Bash listing (find or ls) — do NOT use the Glob tool, which has returned false negatives on this repo. Take the highest NNN found and add 1. If none exist, start at 001. Zero-pad to 3 digits.

   b. Derive the model abbreviation: from the research input, identify the core economic model or mechanism (e.g., BNE, PrincipalAgent, MatchingSearch, SignalGame, RoyModel). Keep it concise (≤20 chars, no spaces — use CamelCase or hyphens). You will refine this abbreviation after Stage 0 if the intake reveals a more precise model family.

   c. Create the directory: Exploration/Project_NNN_<ModelAbbrev>/ relative to the repo root (e.g., Exploration/Project_003_RationalInattention/). If the repo root is not writable, fall back to ~/Desktop/Exploration/Project_NNN_<ModelAbbrev>/.

   d. All outputs go inside this workspace directory. Record the full path in state.json.

3. Initialize state.json — copy from templates/state.json and fill in campaign_id, workspace, hypothesis, mode (the value resolved in step 1b), and started_at.

4. Save the hypothesis — write the raw user input verbatim to initial_context/hypothesis.md. Keep any mode: line in the verbatim copy; the file is never modified after it is written.

5. Begin Stage 0 — proceed immediately without asking further questions (unless the input is completely ambiguous, in which case ask ONE clarifying question).

6. In empirical-companion mode only — after Stage 0 completes, run Stage 0-EC (Empirical Scope Lock) before Stage 1. This is the only stage that may ask the researcher questions before Stage 1, and it asks at most three, in one message. See prompts/ec-00-empirical-scope-lock.md.

Workspace Layout

Exploration/
└── Project_NNN_<ModelAbbrev>/          ← e.g. Project_003_RationalInattention
    ├── state.json
    ├── initial_context/
    │   └── hypothesis.md                        # Raw user input (verbatim, never modified)
    ├── outputs/
    │   ├── research_intake.md                   # Stage 0
    │   ├── empirical_scope.md                   # Stage 0-EC  ← empirical-companion mode only
    │   ├── research_puzzle.md                   # Stage 1
    │   ├── literature_positioning.md            # Stage 2
    │   ├── empirical_reality_check.md           # Stage 2a
    │   ├── persona_council.md                   # Stage 3
    │   ├── canonical_model_match.md             # Stage 3b
    │   ├── model_primitives.md                  # Stage 4
    │   ├── minimality_check.md                  # Stage 4    ← empirical-companion mode only
    │   ├── empirical_theory_map.md              # Stage 4/6  ← empirical-companion mode only
    │   ├── assumption_audit.md                  # Stage 5
    │   ├── candidate_propositions.md            # Stage 6
    │   ├── scope_notes.md                       # Stages 4–8 ← empirical-companion mode only
    │   ├── proof_sketches.md                    # Stage 7
    │   ├── numerical_simulation_decision.md     # Stage 7b — HiL-N1 decision record (always, once decided)
    │   ├── numerical_simulation_plan.md         # Stage 7b — only if PLAN ONLY / CUSTOM / YES
    │   ├── parameter_definitions.md             # Stage 7b — only if CUSTOM / YES
    │   ├── numerical_simulation_report.md       # Stage 7b — only after approved execution
    │   ├── numerical_code/                      # Stage 7b — Python scripts (only after APPROVE PLAN)
    │   ├── numerical_results/                   # Stage 7b — CSV results (only after APPROVE PLAN)
    │   ├── numerical_figures/                   # Stage 7b — PNG + PDF figures (only after APPROVE PLAN)
    │   ├── counterexamples_and_edge_cases.md    # Stage 8
    │   ├── economic_interpretation.md           # Stage 9
    │   ├── manuscript_skeleton.md               # Stage 10 — research scaffold
    │   ├── manuscript.tex                       # Stage 10 — LaTeX source
    │   └── manuscript.pdf                       # Stage 10 — academic PDF (pdflatex)
    ├── gates/
    │   ├── gate-01-novelty-risk.md              # After Stage 2
    │   ├── gate-01b-reality-fit.md              # After Stage 2a
    │   ├── gate-02b-canonical-fit.md            # After Stage 3b
    │   ├── gate-02c-theory-lineage.md           # After Stage 3b
    │   ├── gate-02-model-coherence.md           # After Stage 4
    │   ├── gate-03-non-triviality.md            # After Stage 6
    │   ├── gate-04-proof-integrity.md           # After Stage 7
    │   ├── gate-04b-numerical-integrity.md      # After Stage 7b (only if simulation ran)
    │   ├── gate-05-economic-meaning.md          # After Stage 9
    │   ├── gate-06-math-review.md               # Stage 10 completion (manuscript.tex written, before PDF)
    │   └── gate-ec-empirical-alignment.md       # After Stage 6 ← empirical-companion mode only
    └── logs/
        └── stage-log.md                         # Running progress log

Pipeline Overview

Mode-conditional rows. Stage 0-EC and Gate EC run only when state.json → mode == "empirical-companion". In theory-development mode the table above is exactly the pre-existing pipeline: Stages 0–10 plus 2a and 3b, with optional 7b. In empirical-companion mode, Stages 1 through 10 additionally apply the "Empirical-Companion Mode Addendum" section at the end of their prompt files, and HiL-5 is presented as the EMPIRICAL COMPANION CHECKPOINT.

⚠️ Standing Rule: Empirical Claims in Any Stage Output

Before using a real-world market, institution, country, policy, or industry as the motivating example — in any stage output, any manuscript section, or any introduction paragraph — the skill must explicitly distinguish between these four categories:

The model may proceed only if:

• All unsupported claims are explicitly labeled as stylized assumptions or hypothetical context, AND
• No potentially false assumption is presented as an established fact about a named real-world setting.

This rule applies to every stage output, not only Stage 2a. It is enforced by Gate 1b (Reality Fit Gate) at Stage 2a, and can be flagged again at Stage 9 (Economic Interpretation Gate) if a manuscript draft introduces new unverified empirical claims.

Quality Gate Logic

Nine gates protect the pipeline, plus Gate 4b (optional, only if Stage 7b ran) and Gate EC (only in empirical-companion mode). Each gate runs immediately after its assigned stage (Gate 6 runs inside the Completion sequence, after manuscript.tex is written and before pdflatex). Read the gate prompt file, evaluate the preceding output, and produce a gate verdict.

Gate PASS: continue to the next stage.

Gate FAIL: do NOT automatically loop back. Instead, output:

⚠️  GATE [N] FAILED — [Gate Name]

Failure reason: [specific reason with evidence]
Severity: [MINOR | MAJOR | CRITICAL]
Recommended loopback: Stage [X] — [Stage Name]

To proceed with a caveat (accepting the risk), type: PROCEED WITH CAVEAT
To loop back and revise, type: LOOP BACK TO STAGE [X]

Wait for the researcher's explicit decision. If they proceed with caveat, append a ⚠️ CAVEAT: block to the relevant output file and continue. If they loop back, re-run the indicated stage before continuing.

If a gate fails a second time on the same stage, present the failure but allow the researcher to proceed with caveat regardless.

Gate 6 correction exception: Gate 6 checks objective mathematics (statement classification, independent re-derivation, notation, statement–proof match, domain sanity). TYPO-LEVEL and LOW errors (e.g., an equilibrium condition mislabeled as a Proposition, an algebra slip that changes no claim's direction) are fixed directly in manuscript.tex, back-propagated to the source outputs, and logged in the gate file WITHOUT pausing for researcher input. Only SUBSTANTIVE errors (a result's sign or content contradicted by independent re-derivation, a proof that fails to establish its claim) trigger the standard gate-failure protocol above. See prompts/gate-06-math-review.md for the severity definitions.

Gate EC (empirical-companion mode only): Gate EC audits the correspondence between the model and the empirical paper — proposition coverage (EC1), hypothesis derivability (EC2), mechanism parsimony (EC3), assumption economy (EC4), heterogeneity correspondence (EC5), and mechanism object identity (EC6). It uses the standard PASS / CONDITIONAL PASS / FAIL vocabulary and the standard failure protocol. One exception: an EC6 failure cannot be downgraded to a CONDITIONAL PASS. If the empirical result is claimed to test mechanism M while the model's M is a different latent object, the paper's central claim does not hold, and the researcher must either loop back or accept a caveat that is disclosed in the manuscript as a stated limitation. See prompts/gate-ec-empirical-alignment.md.

Human Checkpoint (HiL) Protocol

At HiL stages, stop and present the output to the researcher. Use the exact format below for each checkpoint. Do not continue until the researcher responds.

HiL-1 — Research Puzzle Review (after Stage 1)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-1 | Research Puzzle Review
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

[Paste the key sections of research_puzzle.md here]

Please choose one:
  APPROVE     — Proceed to Stage 2 (Literature Positioning)
  REDIRECT    — Provide revised framing; I will re-run Stage 1
  CLARIFY     — Ask me a question before deciding
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

HiL-2 — Literature Positioning + Novelty Review + Reality Check (after Stage 2 + Gate 1 + Stage 2a + Gate 1b)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-2 | Literature Positioning + Novelty Review + Reality Check
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Gate 1 result: [PASS / FAIL — one-line reason]

Key positioning findings:
[3-5 bullet summary of literature_positioning.md]

Gate 1b (Reality Fit) result: [PASS / CONDITIONAL PASS (REFRAME) / FAIL — one-line reason]

Reality check summary:
  Supported facts:       [list]
  Unsupported:           [list]
  Potentially false:     [list]
  Recommendation:        [PROCEED / REFRAME / REROUTE]

Please choose one:
  APPROVE     — Proceed to Stage 3 (Persona Council)
  ADJUST      — Specify which positioning to change; I will revise
  SCOPE DOWN  — Narrow the claim to sidestep the novelty risk; specify
  REFRAME     — Confirm the paper will describe a stylized market (not the real market)
  REROUTE     — Specify the corrected empirical setting or alternative model family
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

HiL-3 — Persona Council Review (after Stage 3)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-3 | Theory Persona Council Review
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Verdict summary:
  Mechanism Theorist:        [ACCEPT / CONCERN / REJECT] — [one line]
  Mathematical Referee:      [ACCEPT / CONCERN / REJECT] — [one line]
  Economic Intuition Ref.:   [ACCEPT / CONCERN / REJECT] — [one line]
  Journal Positioning Ref.:  [ACCEPT / CONCERN / REJECT] — [one line]
  Brutal Skeptic:            [ACCEPT / CONCERN / REJECT] — [one line]

Council synthesis: [2-3 sentence summary]

Please choose one:
  APPROVE     — Accept the synthesis and proceed to Stage 4
  OVERRIDE [Persona] — Disagree with a specific verdict; specify why
  REVISE      — Provide changes to the puzzle or approach; I will re-run Stage 3
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

HiL-4 — Model Primitives + Equilibrium Concept ★ HARD STOP (after Stage 4 + Gate 2)

This is a mandatory hard stop. The equilibrium concept determines everything downstream. Do not proceed without explicit researcher confirmation.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-4 ★ HARD STOP | Model Primitives + Equilibrium Concept
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Gate 2 result: [PASS / FAIL — one-line reason]

Model summary:
  Agents:               [extracted from model_primitives.md]
  Timing:               [extracted]
  Information:          [extracted]
  Action spaces:        [extracted]

★ Proposed equilibrium concept:
  [EXTRACTED — e.g., "Bayesian Nash Equilibrium"]
  Justification: [extracted 1-2 sentences]

★ Social planner benchmark:
  [EXTRACTED — e.g., "First-best (unconstrained optimum)"]

This choice is IRREVERSIBLE without re-running Stage 4.

Please choose one:
  CONFIRM     — Confirm the equilibrium concept; proceed to Stage 5
  CHANGE TO [concept] — Specify a different concept; I will revise Stage 4
  RESTRUCTURE — Provide structural changes to the model; I will re-run Stage 4
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

HiL-5 — Proposition Review (after Stage 6 + Gate 3)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-5 | Candidate Propositions Review
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Gate 3 result: [PASS / FAIL — one-line reason]

Candidate propositions:
  [P_1] [Proposition type] — [one-line statement]
  [P_2] [Proposition type] — [one-line statement]
  ...

Please choose one:
  APPROVE ALL — Proceed to Stage 7 (Proof Sketches)
  SELECT [P_1, P_3, ...] — Keep only listed propositions; defer others
  REVISE [P_n] — Specify the revision; I will update before continuing
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

In empirical-companion mode, HiL-5 runs after Stage 6 + Gate 3 + Gate EC, and is presented in the format below instead. It is the same checkpoint and the same human_decisions.hil_5 slot — only the rendering changes, so the researcher answers one checkpoint, not two.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  EMPIRICAL COMPANION CHECKPOINT  (HiL-5)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Gate 3 result:  [PASS / CONDITIONAL PASS / FAIL — one-line reason]
Gate EC result: [PASS / CONDITIONAL PASS / FAIL — one-line reason]

Baseline:
  Empirical result:  [the finding, with its table reference]
  Model mechanism:   [the channel, in words]
  Proposition:       [P_id] — [one-line statement]
  Hypothesis:        H1 — [claim about observables]

Mechanism:
  Empirical result:  [the mechanism test, with its table reference]
  Model mechanism:   [the channel]
  Proposition:       [P_id] — [one-line statement]
  Hypothesis:        H2 — [claim about observables]

Heterogeneity:
  Empirical result:  [the subgroup or interaction result]
  Model mechanism:   [the channel]
  Proposition:       [P_id] — [one-line statement]
  Hypothesis:        H3 — [claim about observables]

Deferred to scope_notes.md: [n] items
  [SN-1] [one-line title]
  [SN-2] [one-line title]

Please choose one:
  APPROVE          — Proceed to Stage 7 (Proof Sketch)
  EDIT             — Revise the mapping; I will re-run Stage 6
  RETURN TO MODEL  — Loop back to Stage 4 (Model Primitives)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Log as [HiL-5 — Empirical Companion Checkpoint] <ISO timestamp> | researcher: <choice> — <notes>. Record the choice in state.json under human_decisions.hil_5, as in the default rendering.

HiL-N1 — Numerical Simulation Decision (after Stage 7 + Gate 4) — OPTIONAL MODULE ENTRY

Stage 7b never runs by default. After Stage 7 and Gate 4 complete, ALWAYS pause and present this checkpoint. Before the researcher answers, do NOT run code, choose parameter values, generate numerical results, or generate simulation figures.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-N1 | Numerical Simulation Decision (Stage 7b — optional)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Would you like to conduct numerical simulation and computational
illustration for the current theoretical model?

Numerical simulation can be used to:
  1. check theoretical formulas and comparative statics;
  2. illustrate equilibria, welfare functions, and relationships
     among policy variables;
  3. search for corner solutions, multiple equilibria, or potential
     counterexamples;
  4. generate simulation figures suitable for a paper.

Available simulation types (you may select more than one):
  baseline simulation / comparative statics / parameter sweep /
  regime map / counterexample search / welfare & policy figures /
  dynamic simulation (dynamic models only) / user-defined

Please choose:
  A. YES       — Run numerical simulation and generate code, results, and figures.
  B. NO        — Skip numerical simulation and proceed directly to Stage 8.
  C. PLAN ONLY — Generate a numerical simulation plan, but do not run any code.
  D. CUSTOM    — Specify the numerical tasks, variables, parameter ranges, and figures.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Record the decision in outputs/numerical_simulation_decision.md, logs/stage-log.md, and state.json. On NO: log SKIPPED BY USER, create no numerical artifacts (no code, no results, no placeholder or empty figures), and proceed directly to Stage 8.

HiL-N2 — Simulation Plan Approval (after the Stage 7b plan is written) ★ EXECUTION HARD STOP

Reached only if HiL-N1 = YES or CUSTOM. After writing numerical_simulation_plan.md and parameter_definitions.md, pause. No code may be executed before the researcher selects APPROVE PLAN.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  HiL-N2 ★ EXECUTION HARD STOP | Simulation Plan Approval
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Plan summary:
  1. Propositions / mechanisms to simulate:  [list]
  2. Model-to-code mapping:                  [equation → function summary]
  3. Baseline parameter values:              [list]
  4. Parameter ranges:                       [list]
  5. Parameter source / status:              [classification per parameter]
  6. Figures to be generated:                [list with type labels]
  7. Parameter sweep:                        [YES/NO — region]
  8. Counterexample search:                  [YES/NO — strategy]
  9. Expected computational cost:            [estimate]
 10. Expected output files:                  [list]

Please choose one:
  APPROVE PLAN       — Execute the simulation as planned
  REVISE PARAMETERS  — Specify changes to baselines/ranges; I will update the plan
  REVISE FIGURES     — Specify changes to the figure list; I will update the plan
  REVISE MODEL       — The equations to implement are wrong; specify; I will revise
  CANCEL SIMULATION  — Abandon Stage 7b and proceed directly to Stage 8
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Record the approval decision in logs/stage-log.md and state.json.

HiL-N3 — Numerical Results Review (after Stage 7b execution + Gate 4b)

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  HiL-N3 | Numerical Results Review
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Gate 4b result: [PASS / CONDITIONAL PASS / CONDITIONAL PASS [MAJOR] / FAIL — one-line reason]

  1. Generated code:               [numerical_code/ file list]
  2. Baseline results:             [key numbers + epistemic label]
  3. Comparative statics:          [summary, if run]
  4. Parameter sweep:              [summary, if run]
  5. Corner solutions found:       [list or "none"]
  6. Counterexamples found:        [list or "none" — with affected propositions]
  7. PNG figures:                  [paths]
  8. PDF figures:                  [paths]
  9. Recommended for main text:    [figures]
 10. Recommended for Appendix:     [figures]
 11. NOT suitable for manuscript:  [results/figures + why]
 12. Propositions needing revision: [list or "none"]

Please choose one or more:
  ACCEPT RESULTS          — Accept and proceed to Stage 8 (with numerical handoff)
  REVISE PARAMETERS       — Requires a WRITTEN JUSTIFICATION (post-results change);
                            logged in the parameter change log, then re-run
  REVISE CODE             — Specify the fix; I will re-run and re-gate
  REVISE MODEL            — Loop back to the theory artifacts; specify
  WEAKEN PROPOSITION [P_n] — Narrow the claim in light of the numerics
  SPLIT INTO REGIMES [P_n] — Replace one claim with per-regime claims
  DROP PROPOSITION [P_n]  — Remove the proposition
  USE FIGURES IN MANUSCRIPT — Authorize figures for Stage 10 (required for ANY
                            numerical content to enter the manuscript). Default
                            scope: 1–2 demonstration figures in the main text
                            (the headline mechanism/welfare figure plus at most
                            one sweep/regime figure); remaining figures stay in
                            the workspace or Appendix.
  APPENDIX ONLY           — Authorize figures for the Appendix only
  DO NOT USE RESULTS      — Keep results in the workspace; exclude from manuscript
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Record every selection in logs/stage-log.md and state.json (numerical_simulation.results_review).

HiL-6 — Counterexample Resolution (after Stage 8)

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  HiL-6 | Counterexample Resolution
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Counterexamples found:
  [CE_1] Breaks [P_n] when [condition] — Severity: [HIGH/MED/LOW]
  [CE_2] ...

For each result-breaking counterexample, decide:
  MODIFY ASSUMPTION [A_n] — Narrow the scope to rule it out
  WEAKEN CLAIM [P_n]      — Reduce the claim to avoid the broken case
  ACCEPT AS BOUNDARY      — Document as a boundary condition and proceed
  DISCARD [P_n]           — Remove this proposition from the paper

[Researcher specifies decisions per counterexample]
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Stage Execution Instructions

For each stage:

1. Print a stage banner: [STAGE N/10] Stage Name
2. Read the stage prompt file listed below
3. Read all specified input files
4. Execute the stage — generate output following the prompt's template
5. Write output to outputs/<filename>.md
6. Append a structured entry to logs/stage-log.md: [STAGE N — Stage Name] <ISO timestamp> | completed
7. Update state.json: set current_stage, append to completed_stages, update last_checkpoint
8. If a gate follows: read the gate prompt file, evaluate the output, write gate result to the matching file under gates/ (see the Workspace Layout for exact filenames). Then append to logs/stage-log.md, where <id> is the gate id (1, 1b, 2b, 2c, 2, 3, 4, 4b, 5, 6, or EC):
   • On pass: [GATE <id> — Gate Name] <ISO timestamp> | PASS
   • On fail: [GATE <id> — Gate Name] <ISO timestamp> | FAIL [SEVERITY] — <one-line reason> After the researcher decides, append the decision:
   • [GATE <id> — Gate Name] <ISO timestamp> | researcher: LOOP BACK TO STAGE X
   • [GATE <id> — Gate Name] <ISO timestamp> | researcher: PROCEED WITH CAVEAT — <note or "no note">
9. If a HiL follows: present the checkpoint and wait for researcher input. After receiving the response, append to logs/stage-log.md: [HiL-N — Checkpoint Name] <ISO timestamp> | researcher: <choice> — <notes or "no notes"> Also record the decision in state.json under human_decisions.

Stage 0 — Intake

• Prompt: prompts/00-intake.md
• Output: outputs/research_intake.md
• Inputs: initial_context/hypothesis.md
• Gate: none | HiL: none → proceed immediately to Stage 1 (in empirical-companion mode, to Stage 0-EC)

Stage 0-EC — Empirical Scope Lock (empirical-companion mode only)

• Prompt: prompts/ec-00-empirical-scope-lock.md
• Output: outputs/empirical_scope.md
• Inputs: initial_context/hypothesis.md, outputs/research_intake.md
• Gate: none | HiL: none → proceed to Stage 1
• Runs only when state.json → mode == "empirical-companion". Skip it entirely in theory-development mode.

Purpose: fix in writing what the theory section has to account for, before any modeling begins. The eight fields are: empirical question, baseline result, proposed mechanism, mechanism test, heterogeneity results, key hypotheses to rationalize, preferred theoretical tradition, and scope exclusions. Fields 1, 2, and 6 are required to lock the scope.

Questions: this stage may ask the researcher at most three questions, bundled into one message, and only for required fields that are missing. Do not ask one at a time, and do not ask about fields 7 or 8 (absent means "no preference" / "no exclusions"). Everything derivable from the brief is derived before asking.

Scope status is LOCKED or REVISE. A locked scope is the contract for the rest of the run: later stages work inside it, and any change to it is written back into empirical_scope.md with the stage that requested it and the researcher's decision.

Record in state.json → empirical_companion: scope_status, scope_locked, target_hypotheses, excluded_extensions. Log: [STAGE 0-EC — Empirical Scope Lock] <ISO timestamp> | completed — scope <LOCKED|REVISE>, <n> target hypotheses

Stage 1 — Puzzle Refinement

• Prompt: prompts/01-puzzle-refinement.md
• Output: outputs/research_puzzle.md
• Inputs: outputs/research_intake.md
• Gate: none | HiL: HiL-1
• EC mode: also read the "Empirical-Companion Mode Addendum" at the end of the prompt file, and apply it. Additional input: outputs/empirical_scope.md.

Stage 2 — Literature Positioning

• Prompt: prompts/02-literature-positioning.md
• Output: outputs/literature_positioning.md
• Inputs: outputs/research_puzzle.md
• Gate: Gate 1 | HiL: HiL-2
• EC mode: also read the "Empirical-Companion Mode Addendum" at the end of the prompt file, and apply it.

⚠️ MANDATORY: Web-verify every citation before writing it to literature_positioning.md. For each paper identified in Stage 2, use WebSearch or WebFetch to confirm:

1. Author(s) and year are correct
2. Title is the actual published title (not a plausible-sounding variant)
3. Journal name, volume, issue, and page numbers are correct
4. The paper actually exists (search "author year title site:scholar.google.com" or similar)

Mark each citation as one of:

• VERIFIED — confirmed via web search (include the URL or source)
• UNVERIFIED — could not confirm; flag explicitly and DO NOT include in any manuscript bibliography

LLMs hallucinate plausible-sounding but nonexistent papers, especially for applied/empirical China literature. A citation that looks real is not the same as a citation that is real. Never include a citation in any output without web verification.

Stage 2a — Empirical Reality Check / Institutional Context Check

• Prompt: prompts/02a-empirical-reality-check.md
• Output: outputs/empirical_reality_check.md
• Inputs: outputs/research_puzzle.md, outputs/literature_positioning.md
• Gate: Gate 1b (Reality Fit Gate — defined inside prompts/02a-empirical-reality-check.md) | HiL: none

Purpose: Before committing to a model structure, verify that the real-world context described by the researcher matches the factual requirements of the proposed model family. Use web search to check market concentration data, institutional rules, and evidence for claimed group or regional differences. This stage does NOT build a model — it only checks that the model's implicit factual assumptions are not contradicted by publicly available evidence.

Gate 1b verdict logic:

• PASS: All key factual assumptions SUPPORTED or WEAKLY SUPPORTED → proceed to Stage 3.
• CONDITIONAL PASS (REFRAME): 1–2 assumptions UNSUPPORTED but not POTENTIALLY FALSE → proceed with a caveat: the paper must describe the setting as stylized, not claim to describe a specific real market. Document the reframing in empirical_reality_check.md.
• FAIL (REROUTE — Stage 1): Any assumption POTENTIALLY FALSE, or 3+ UNSUPPORTED → stop; researcher must restate the puzzle with a corrected or explicitly hypothetical setting.
• FAIL (REROUTE — Stage 3b): The proposed canonical model family is inconsistent with verified market structure → redirect Stage 3b to a different model family.

⚠️ If Gate 1b fails, do NOT proceed to Stage 3. Present the gate failure in the standard format and wait for the researcher to decide: loop back to Stage 1, commit to a hypothetical/stylized framing, or redirect to an alternative model family.

Stage 3 — Theory Persona Council

• Prompt: prompts/03-persona-council.md
• Output: outputs/persona_council.md
• Inputs: outputs/research_puzzle.md, outputs/literature_positioning.md, outputs/empirical_reality_check.md
• Council format: 5 personas, 2-round council — independent assessment (Round 1) followed by cross-review and synthesis (Round 2)
• Gate: none | HiL: HiL-3
• EC mode: also read the "Empirical-Companion Mode Addendum" at the end of the prompt file, and apply it.

Stage 3b — Canonical Model Matching

• Prompt: prompts/03b-canonical-model-match.md
• Output: outputs/canonical_model_match.md
• Inputs: outputs/research_puzzle.md, outputs/literature_positioning.md, outputs/persona_council.md, model_library/ (all files)
• Gate: Gate 2b (Canonical Fit) then Gate 2c (Theory Lineage) — run both sequentially | HiL: none → proceed to Stage 4
• EC mode: also read the "Empirical-Companion Mode Addendum" at the end of the prompt file, and apply it. Strictness is unchanged; the addendum adds an assessment of the researcher's stated model-family preference.
• Note: if the research involves human capital, labor, automation, or AI-labor topics, the prompt explicitly requires checking model_library/human_capital_and_labor/
• Note: if the research involves market structure, pricing, platforms, or entry/competition topics, check model_library/io/
• Note: if the research involves trade patterns, trade liberalization, exporter behavior, or gains from trade, check model_library/comparative-advantage-ricardian.md, model_library/heckscher-ohlin.md, model_library/new-trade-theory-krugman.md, model_library/melitz-firm-heterogeneity.md
• Note: if the research involves regional/spatial dynamics, internal migration, regional convergence, local labor market adjustment, or the dynamic effects of trade shocks across regions, check model_library/dynamic-spatial-general-equilibrium.md and model_library/trade-labor-dynamics-china-shock.md
• Note: if the research involves admission cutoffs, threshold scores, exam ranks, school choice, or any centrally rationed assignment, check model_library/matching-with-cutoffs.md in addition to model_library/matching-models.md
• Note: if the research involves job risk, workplace violence, hours, or any non-wage job attribute, check model_library/human_capital_and_labor/compensating-differentials.md; if wages in the setting are administratively set, that file's regulated-wage extension is the relevant part
• Note: if the research involves entry into an occupation with a multi-year training pipeline (medicine, law, engineering, licensed trades), check model_library/human_capital_and_labor/cobweb-supply-lags.md for the training-lag dynamics before treating an entry decline as a permanent repricing