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Agent skill

Yc Default Alive Calculator

by magnus919 in magnus919/agent-skills

Evaluate startup runway, burn, revenue, and profitability trajectory using the Default Alive / Default Dead framework.

MITAuto-check passedBusiness, Finance & HR

Install Yc Default Alive Calculator

skills CLI
$ npx skills add magnus919/agent-skills --skill yc-default-alive-calculator -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install magnus919/agent-skills yc-default-alive-calculator --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/magnus919/agent-skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/yc-default-alive-calculator .claude/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
yc-default-alive-calculator
GitHub stars
115
Token cost
~2.1k tokens
SKILL.md length
829 words
Files
6 (incl. scripts, references)
Skills in repo
131
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Evaluate startup runway, burn, revenue, and profitability trajectory using the Default Alive / Default Dead framework.

  • Works in 5 steps: Revenue growth — 10% faster growth… → Cost reduction — Every dollar cut… → Pricing — A 20% price increase with… → …
  • Weekly growth experiments
  • SKILL.md covers When to Load, When Not to Use, How to Use and Methodology, plus 3 more sections
  • Runs Python scripts from its folder; calls python3 and python

What it does

Yc Default Alive Calculator is an agent skill from magnus919/agent-skills. Evaluate startup runway, burn, revenue, and profitability trajectory using the Default Alive / Default Dead framework. Do not use this skill for weekly growth experiments or operating growth decisions; use yc-weekly-growth-compass for those decisions.

Its SKILL.md is about 2.1k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 8 other files, including scripts and reference files (for example `README.md`, `evals/evals.json` and `references/default-alive-framework.md`). Compatibility notes: Python 3.9+ with standard library only (no external dependencies). The default-alive.py script uses only math, json, and sys.

It sits in Business, Finance & HR, covering Financial modeling. The repository describes itself as: Curated collection of AI agent skills for Hermes and other agent frameworks. The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • Weekly growth experiments
  • Operating growth decisions
  • Use yc-weekly-growth-compass for those decisions

Example prompts

  • “/yc-default-alive-calculator”

Requirements

  • Python 3
  • Compatibility (from SKILL.md): Python 3.9+ with standard library only (no external dependencies). The default-alive.py script uses only math, json, and sys.

Workflow steps

5 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. Revenue growth — 10% faster growth compounds dramatically over 18 months
  2. Cost reduction — Every dollar cut extends runway by one dollar
  3. Pricing — A 20% price increase with minimal churn impact is often the fastest lever
  4. Gross margin — Reducing COGS improves unit economics without topline change
  5. Funding — Default dead means fundraising is existential, not optional

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 22b4723. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    Ships 1 file in scripts/ (Python), which the agent can run.

    Shell commands in SKILL.md call:

    • python3
    • python

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

  • Compatibility

    Python 3.9+ with standard library only (no external dependencies). The default-alive.py script uses only math, json, and sys.

    From compatibility in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

Context cost

Yc Default Alive Calculator loads about 2.1k tokens when it runs, and up to ~4.4k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 70 tokens; SKILL.md has 829 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~70
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~2.1k
With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them
~4.4k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); the scripts in this folder are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from magnus919/agent-skills at commit 22b4723, republished under its MIT licence (© magnus919). 829 words, ~2,069 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 5 other files; get the full folder from GitHub.
name
yc-default-alive-calculator
description
Evaluate startup runway, burn, revenue, and profitability trajectory using the Default Alive / Default Dead framework. Do not use this skill for weekly growth experiments or operating growth decisions; use `yc-weekly-growth-compass` for those decisions.
compatibility
Python 3.9+ with standard library only (no external dependencies). The default-alive.py script uses only math, json, and sys.
license
MIT
metadata.spec-version
1.0
metadata.tags
startup-finance, runway-analysis, ycombinator, paul-graham, fundraising, financial-modeling, default-alive, burn-rate, startup-metrics
metadata.sources
https://paulgraham.com/aord.html, https://paulgraham.com/die.html, https://www.ycombinator.com/about
metadata.skills
yc-weekly-growth-compass
metadata.requires-toolsets
terminal

Default Alive / Default Dead Calculator

A startup is "default alive" if its current revenue trajectory will reach profitability before it runs out of cash — without additional funding. It is "default dead" if it will run out of money first. This is the single most important financial diagnostic Paul Graham developed at Y Combinator.

This is not a fundraising model. It's a reality check. The answer determines whether fundraising is optional or existential.

When to Load

TriggerExample
"Am I default alive?"Founder asking about runway
"How much runway do I have?"Financial planning
"Should I raise money?"Strategic decision
"What's my burn multiple?"Investor-ready metrics
"How long until we break even?"Trajectory check
"Default alive/dead analysis"Explicit framework request

When Not to Use

  • Detailed financial planning. This is a diagnostic, not a budget. It projects one growth curve with fixed assumptions; it does not model hiring plans, contract timing, seasonality, or capital expenditures. Use a proper financial model for those.
  • Fundraising valuation. The verdict tells you whether raising money is existential; it does not compute a valuation, cap table, or round size.
  • Cost structures the default assumptions don't describe. The model splits burn into fixed and variable components (default 70/30). Hardware, R&D, or manufacturing companies with very different cost structures will get a misleading projection.
  • Unknown or unstable growth. The model assumes a steady monthly growth rate with a small decay. A company in launch mode or product-market-fit search does not produce a meaningful projection.
  • As the only input to a board decision. Treat the verdict as a conversation starter with your CFO or accountant, not as financial advice.

How to Use

Quick Answer (No Script)

For a quick check without running the calculator, use the simplified heuristic:

Burn Multiple = Net Burn / Net New ARR
Burn MultipleSignal
< 1xDefault Alive — growing efficiently
1x–2xHealthy — capital-efficient growth
2x–3xWarning — burning faster than growing
3x+Default Dead — cash crisis without funding
Full Analysis (Script)

Run the CLI calculator for a precise analysis:

bash
python scripts/default-alive.py \
  --monthly-revenue 50000 \
  --monthly-burn 120000 \
  --cash-on-hand 800000 \
  --monthly-growth 8

Output shows: the verdict, burn multiple (net burn ÷ net new ARR), burn-to-revenue ratio (net burn ÷ MRR), projected cash-out month, months to breakeven, cash gap coverage at current spend, the model's assumptions, and the key levers available.

Required inputs
FlagDescriptionExample
--monthly-revenueCurrent monthly recurring revenue (MRR)50000
--monthly-burnTotal monthly operating expenses120000
--cash-on-handCash remaining in bank account800000
--monthly-growthMonth-over-month revenue growth rate (%)8
Optional inputs
FlagDescriptionExample
--revenue-growth-decelerationAnnual growth deceleration rate (%/month, default: 0.5)0.3
--jsonMachine-readable JSON output
--verboseShow detailed month-by-month projection
Output fields
FieldMeaning
projected_cashout_monthMonth cash runs out under the model; null if never within the 10-year projection
burn_multipleGraham's burn multiple: net burn ÷ net new ARR
burn_to_revenue_ratioNet burn ÷ MRR (secondary diagnostic, not Graham's metric)
months_to_breakevenMonths until revenue ≥ expenses (extrapolated)
default_verdictALIVE, DEAD, or MARGINAL
revenue_at_breakevenProjected revenue when/if breakeven reached
gap_to_breakevenMonthly shortfall remaining
months_of_gap_remainingStatic runway at current spend: cash ÷ monthly gap
model_assumptionsfixed_burn_pct, variable_burn_ratio, growth_decay_pct, projection_cap_months, safety_buffer_months
leversWhat can change the outcome (increase price, cut costs, etc.)
Show full SKILL.md (331 more words)Show less

Methodology

The Core Calculation

The model projects month-by-month:

month_n_revenue = previous_revenue × (1 + growth_rate/100)
month_n_burn = fixed_burn + (variable_burn_ratio × month_n_revenue)
month_n_cash = previous_cash + month_n_revenue - month_n_burn

Growth rate decays over time (default: 0.5% per month) to model market saturation — startups don't grow at a constant rate forever.

Default Alive Test

The startup is Default Alive if:

projected_revenue > projected_expenses

at some point before cumulative cash goes negative, and the crossover happens with at least 3 months of remaining runway (safety buffer).

It is Default Dead if cash runs out first.

It is Marginal if breakeven happens with less than 3 months of runway remaining — technically possible but dangerously tight.

Burn Multiple

A metric Graham began tracking at YC to measure capital efficiency:

Burn Multiple = Net Burn / Net New ARR

Where:

  • Net Burn = cash spent per month (total expenses minus revenue)
  • Net New ARR = new annual recurring revenue added that month

A burn multiple below 1x means the company is generating more than it spends in new ARR terms — the strongest default-alive signal.

Levers

When the verdict is DEAD or MARGINAL, evaluate these levers (in rough order of impact):

  1. Revenue growth — 10% faster growth compounds dramatically over 18 months
  2. Cost reduction — Every dollar cut extends runway by one dollar
  3. Pricing — A 20% price increase with minimal churn impact is often the fastest lever
  4. Gross margin — Reducing COGS improves unit economics without topline change
  5. Funding — Default dead means fundraising is existential, not optional

Examples

YC Typical Profile (Default Dead under the model)
bash
python3 scripts/default-alive.py \
  --monthly-revenue 30000 \
  --monthly-burn 75000 \
  --cash-on-hand 500000 \
  --monthly-growth 10
  • Projected cash-out: month 14
  • Burn multiple: 1.25x (net burn / net new ARR)
  • Breakeven would require 22 months, after cash runs out
  • Verdict: DEAD — needs faster growth, cost cuts, or funding
Pre-Revenue Startup (Default Dead)
bash
python3 scripts/default-alive.py \
  --monthly-revenue 0 \
  --monthly-burn 80000 \
  --cash-on-hand 400000 \
  --monthly-growth 0
  • Projected cash-out: month 8 (the model burns only the fixed 70% of burn at zero revenue)
  • Burn multiple: undefined (no revenue)
  • Verdict: DEAD — fundraising is existential
Capital-Efficient SaaS (Default Alive)
bash
python3 scripts/default-alive.py \
  --monthly-revenue 150000 \
  --monthly-burn 180000 \
  --cash-on-hand 2000000 \
  --monthly-growth 7
  • Projected cash-out: none within the 10-year projection
  • Burn multiple: 0.24x (net burn / net new ARR)
  • Verdict: ALIVE

References

  • references/default-alive-framework.md — Paul Graham's original framework with essay excerpts
  • references/yc-fundraising-context.md — How default state drives fundraising strategy
  • yc-weekly-growth-compass companion skill — For growth rate analysis

© magnus919, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 5 other files (scripts, references) in yc-default-alive-calculator of magnus919/agent-skills.

  • SKILL.md
  • README.md
  • evals/evals.json
  • references/default-alive-framework.md
  • references/yc-fundraising-context.md
  • scripts/default-alive.py

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 22b4723

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Categories

Questions about Yc Default Alive Calculator

What does Yc Default Alive Calculator do?

Evaluate startup runway, burn, revenue, and profitability trajectory using the Default Alive / Default Dead framework. Yc Default Alive Calculator is an agent skill from magnus919/agent-skills. Evaluate startup runway, burn, revenue, and profitability trajectory using the Default Alive / Default Dead framework.

When should I use Yc Default Alive Calculator?

Yc Default Alive Calculator fits situations like: weekly growth experiments; operating growth decisions; use yc-weekly-growth-compass for those decisions.

How do I install Yc Default Alive Calculator in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add magnus919/agent-skills --skill yc-default-alive-calculator -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (yc-default-alive-calculator in magnus919/agent-skills) into .claude/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Yc Default Alive Calculator in Codex?

Run `npx skills add magnus919/agent-skills --skill yc-default-alive-calculator -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (yc-default-alive-calculator in magnus919/agent-skills) into .agents/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Yc Default Alive Calculator in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add magnus919/agent-skills --skill yc-default-alive-calculator -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator, .gemini/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator, .github/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator and .opencode/skills/yc-default-alive-calculator in your project.

What does Yc Default Alive Calculator need to run?

Going by SKILL.md and its folder, Yc Default Alive Calculator needs Python for the scripts in its folder and the command-line tools its instructions call (python3 and python). Our summary lists: Python 3. Compatibility (from SKILL.md): Python 3.9+ with standard library only (no external dependencies). The default-alive.py script uses only math, json, and sys..

Does Yc Default Alive Calculator access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Yc Default Alive Calculator safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. The check reads SKILL.md only: the scripts in the folder are not scanned, so read them before running anything.

What licence does Yc Default Alive Calculator use?

Yc Default Alive Calculator is published under the MIT licence (declared in SKILL.md). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Yc Default Alive Calculator use?

About 2.1k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 8.3k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 2.3k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.

What are the alternatives to Yc Default Alive Calculator?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Yc Default Alive Calculator: Creating Financial Models (Chen-zexi/open-ptc-agent, 729 stars), Equity Research (rollingSirius/equity-research-skill, 453 stars), SaaS Metrics Coach (rongxinzy/RongxinAI, 154 stars) and Startup Financial Modeling (nicepkg/auto-company, 195 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Yc Default Alive Calculator?

magnus919 (a GitHub user) maintains it in magnus919/agent-skills, which has 115 GitHub stars. The repository holds 131 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 10, 2026.

Source: magnus919/agent-skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.