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Agent skill

Auction Winners Curse Haircut

by lyndonkl in lyndonkl/claude

Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated.

No licenceAuto-check passedBusiness, Finance & HR

Install Auction Winners Curse Haircut

skills CLI
$ npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill auction-winners-curse-haircut -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install lyndonkl/claude auction-winners-curse-haircut --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut .claude/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
auction-winners-curse-haircut
GitHub stars
164
Token cost
~3k tokens
SKILL.md length
1,177 words
Files
4
Skills in repo
12
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
None found

At a glance

Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated.

  • Works in 8 steps: Classification must be explicit. Never… → Private-value short-circuit is absolute.… → Never stack this haircut with another… → …
  • User mentions winners curse
  • SKILL.md covers Table of Contents, Example, Workflow and Common Patterns, plus 2 more sections
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

Auction Winners Curse Haircut is an agent skill from lyndonkl/claude. Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated. Takes a raw valuation, a value-type classification (commonvalue / privatevalue / mixed), the number of informed bidders N, and a signal-dispersion estimate, and returns an adjusted valuation. Domain-neutral and reusable across fantasy FAAB, prediction markets, M&A bids, ad-auction budgets, and any generic bidding context. Use when user mentions "winner's curse", "common value…

Its SKILL.md is about 3k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 5 other files (for example `resources/evaluators/rubric_auction_winners_curse_haircut.json`, `resources/methodology.md` and `resources/template.md`).

It sits in Business, Finance & HR. The repository describes itself as: Agents, skills and anything else to use with claude.

When your agent uses it

  • User mentions winners curse
  • Common value auction
  • Valuation haircut
  • Adverse valuation

Example prompts

  • “winner”
  • “common value auction”
  • “valuation haircut”
  • “/auction-winners-curse-haircut”

Workflow steps

8 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

  1. Classification must be explicit. Never infer value_type silently from other inputs. The caller passes it; the skill validates. A missing…
  2. Private-value short-circuit is absolute. If the caller asserts private-value, haircut is zero even when N is large. This is correct: if…
  3. Never stack this haircut with another winner's-curse correction. Downstream systems that already apply Bayesian bid shading (e.g…
  4. Cap at 35%. The empirical Kagel-Levin range is 15-30%. The 35% ceiling provides headroom for very large N plus high dispersion but…
  5. N >= 1. N = 1 means the bidder is alone; log(1) = 0 so the formula yields haircut_pct = 10 + signal_dispersion x 0.2. For a true monopsony…
  6. Signal dispersion is a proxy, not a measurement. In practice it is rarely directly observable. Estimate from: historical bid-spread in…
  7. Mixed value requires an explicit weight. Do not silently default to 0.6. Callers should state the common/private split and its…
  8. Domain-neutral contract. This skill does not know about FAAB, fantasy baseball, or any specific auction environment. Callers translate…

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 4acc337. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Auction Winners Curse Haircut loads about 3k tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 163 tokens; SKILL.md has 1,177 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~163
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~3k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

Without a licence we can't republish the file, so here is its outline and opening line. It has 1,177 words (~3,031 tokens).

“Scenario: Bidder has estimated a target's value at raw_valuation = $30. Six informed bidders are competing. Estimates across bidders are moderately dispersed (signal_dispersion = 40 out of 100). The target is a well-known commodity (everyone models it similarly).”

— opening of SKILL.md by lyndonkl
name
auction-winners-curse-haircut

Read the full SKILL.md on GitHub

Files

SKILL.md and 3 other files in skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut of lyndonkl/claude.

  • SKILL.md
  • resources/evaluators/rubric_auction_winners_curse_haircut.json
  • resources/methodology.md
  • resources/template.md

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 4acc337

Compare with similar skills

Auction Winners Curse Haircut next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Auction Winners Curse Haircut compared with similar skills
SkillStarsUsed inTokensAuto-checkLicenceRepo updated
Auction Winners Curse Haircut this skilllyndonkl/claude164—~3kAutomated safety check: PassNone
Technical Analysttradermonty/claude-trading-skills3k4 repos~4.6kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Theme Detectortradermonty/claude-trading-skills3k2 repos~4.9kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Creating Financial ModelsChen-zexi/open-ptc-agent7293 repos~1.3kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
Stock APIzhangxiangliang/stock-api2k—~507Automated safety check: PassMIT
Itr Walakaranb192/itr-wala871—~3.6kAutomated safety check: PassMIT

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Categories

Questions about Auction Winners Curse Haircut

What does Auction Winners Curse Haircut do?

Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated. Auction Winners Curse Haircut is an agent skill from lyndonkl/claude. Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated.

When should I use Auction Winners Curse Haircut?

Auction Winners Curse Haircut fits situations like: user mentions winners curse; common value auction; valuation haircut; adverse valuation.

How do I install Auction Winners Curse Haircut in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill auction-winners-curse-haircut -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut in lyndonkl/claude) into .claude/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Auction Winners Curse Haircut in Codex?

Run `npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill auction-winners-curse-haircut -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut in lyndonkl/claude) into .agents/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Auction Winners Curse Haircut in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add lyndonkl/claude --skill auction-winners-curse-haircut -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut, .gemini/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut, .github/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut and .opencode/skills/auction-winners-curse-haircut in your project.

What does Auction Winners Curse Haircut need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Auction Winners Curse Haircut is instructions for the agent only.

Does Auction Winners Curse Haircut access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Auction Winners Curse Haircut safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Auction Winners Curse Haircut use?

No licence was found for Auction Winners Curse Haircut or its repository. Without one, default copyright applies: ask the author before reusing or redistributing it.

How many tokens does Auction Winners Curse Haircut use?

About 3k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 12k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Auction Winners Curse Haircut?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Auction Winners Curse Haircut: Technical Analyst (tradermonty/claude-trading-skills, 3k stars), Theme Detector (tradermonty/claude-trading-skills, 3k stars), Creating Financial Models (Chen-zexi/open-ptc-agent, 729 stars) and Stock API (zhangxiangliang/stock-api, 2k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Auction Winners Curse Haircut?

lyndonkl (a GitHub user) maintains it in lyndonkl/claude, which has 164 GitHub stars. The repository holds 12 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on September 1, 2026.

Source: lyndonkl/claude on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.