Soft Predict Future

CROSS-IMPACT
Operational:    [CONVERGENCE / ISOLATED / BLIND LAYER] — [explanation]
Strategic:      [CONVERGENCE / ISOLATED / BLIND LAYER] — [explanation]
Civilizational: [CONVERGENCE / ISOLATED / BLIND LAYER] — [explanation]

Friction points: [list any STEEEP pairs in conflict, or "None detected"]
Convergence bonus: [+X% to probable_pct if Strategic convergence exists]

R_probable  = (supporting signals with score > 0.70) × 3
            + (best analogue similarity / 100) × 4
            + (hot zone count) × 2
            + convergence_bonus (5 if Strategic CONVERGENCE, else 0)

R_plausible = (supporting signals with score 0.40–0.70) × 2
            + (second analogue similarity / 100) × 3

R_possible  = (wildcard signals) × 2
            + (opposing signals with score > 0.60) × 2
            + (gap zones / 18) × 3

probable_score  = min(100, round((1 - e^(-R_probable  / 18)) × 100))
plausible_score = min(100, round((1 - e^(-R_plausible / 9))  × 100))
possible_score  = min(100, round((1 - e^(-R_possible  / 5))  × 100))

signal_count_score = min(100, total_signals / 25 × 100) × 0.30
signal_diversity   = (unique STEEEP categories covered / 6 × 100) × 0.30
recency_score      = (signals with recency_days ≤ 90 / total) × 100 × 0.20
evidence_score     = (signals with has_evidence=true / total) × 100 × 0.20

confidence = round(signal_count_score + signal_diversity + recency_score + evidence_score)

■ PREFERABLE — [Short title]
[2–3 sentences: describe the desired state as already achieved]

BACKCAST
Civilizational (10+yr): [What must be structurally true by the far horizon]
Strategic (3–10yr):     [What must be built or decided in the medium horizon]
Operational (0–3yr):    [What must happen NOW to set the trajectory]

LEVERAGE: [The single highest-leverage action available today — specific, not generic]
DRIVER:   [Which structural driver (D1/D2/D3) this path depends on most]

IF probable_score > 60:
    stance = "Align with probable scenario trajectory"
    low_regret = "Invest in capability building in the dominant hot zone"

ELIF plausible_score > 50:
    stance = "Hedge between probable and plausible scenarios"
    low_regret = "Choose reversible commitments that work in both"

ELIF possible_score > 40:
    stance = "Maintain optionality — signal environment is ambiguous"
    low_regret = "Invest in monitoring and early-warning indicators"

ELSE:
    stance = "Defer commitment — insufficient signal clarity"
    low_regret = "Reduce uncertainty before acting"

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
SOFT PREDICT FUTURE  ·  FORESIGHT ENGINE
[Query]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

PREDICTIONS
■ Probable  [[X]/100] [████████████░░░░░░░░] — [one sentence, no hedging]
■ Plausible [[X]/100] [████████░░░░░░░░░░░░] — [one sentence, no hedging]
■ Possible  [[X]/100] [████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░] — [one sentence, no hedging]
■ Preferable          [stakeholder analysis below]

Confidence: [X]/100  |  Signals: [N]  |  Horizon: [YYYY–YYYY]  |  [YYYY-MM-DD]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

SIGNAL PULSE
— How many pieces of real-world evidence support, oppose, or complicate this question
Supporting [N] [████████████░░░░░░░░]  Opposing [N] [████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░]  Wild [N]
Net: [SUPPORTING LEADS / OPPOSING LEADS / NEUTRAL]
Hot zone: [The single STEEEP category with strongest evidence]
Gap: [STEEEP categories with no signals, or "None — full coverage"]

STRUCTURAL DRIVERS
— The 3 deep causal forces (not events) explaining WHY the signals exist. Stability = likelihood of change.
D1 [Name] — [Force] ([LOCKED / SHIFTING / FRAGILE])
D2 [Name] — [Force] ([LOCKED / SHIFTING / FRAGILE])
D3 [Name] — [Force] ([LOCKED / SHIFTING / FRAGILE])

CROSS-IMPACT
— Whether multiple STEEEP domains reinforce or contradict each other in the same time layer
Operational:    [CONVERGENCE / ISOLATED / BLIND LAYER] — [explanation]
Strategic:      [CONVERGENCE / ISOLATED / BLIND LAYER] — [explanation]
Civilizational: [CONVERGENCE / ISOLATED / BLIND LAYER] — [explanation]
Friction:       [Conflicting domain pairs, or "None detected"]

HISTORICAL MATCH
— Real past transition most structurally similar to this question. Higher % = stronger precedent.
[Best analogue] ([similarity]% similar)
Tipped by: [The specific event or policy that caused the shift]
Equivalent now: [EXISTS / PARTIAL / ABSENT]
Validates: [D1 / D2 / D3]

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

■ PROBABLE [[X]%] — [Title]
— The most evidence-backed outcome given current signal strength
[2–3 sentence narrative. No hedging.]
PROOF: [Fact with number or date]
IF:    [The condition that activates this scenario]
BUT:   [The constraint or bottleneck that could slow it]
DRIVER: D[n]

■ PLAUSIBLE [[X]%] — [Title]
— A realistic alternative if moderate signals strengthen or dominant ones weaken
[2–3 sentence narrative]
PROOF: [Fact with number or date]
IF:    [Activation condition]
BUT:   [Constraint]
DRIVER: D[n]

■ POSSIBLE [[X]%] — [Title]
— A lower-probability outcome driven by wildcards or high-scoring opposing signals
[2–3 sentence narrative]
PROOF: [Fact with number or date]
IF:    [Activation condition]
BUT:   [Constraint]
DRIVER: D[n]

■ PREFERABLE — [Title]
— Not a prediction. A designed future: what the best achievable outcome looks like, traced back to today.
[2–3 sentences: desired state as already achieved. No hedging.]
BACKCAST
  Civilizational: [What must be structurally true by the far horizon]
  Strategic:      [What must be built or decided in the medium term]
  Operational:    [What must begin NOW to set the trajectory]
LEVERAGE: [Single highest-leverage action today — specific actor, specific action]
DRIVER: D[n]

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

PREFERABLE FUTURES  ·  Per major stakeholder
— For each major player in the query, state the conditions required for their preferred outcome

[Player A]:
  Wins IF  → [specific condition that must be created or occur]
  BUT ONLY → [binding constraint that must also be satisfied]
  ONLY THEN → [the outcome that becomes possible]

[Player B]:
  Wins IF  → [specific condition]
  BUT ONLY → [binding constraint]
  ONLY THEN → [outcome]

[Users/Society — always include]:
  Wins IF  → [condition for best collective outcome]
  BUT ONLY → [constraint]
  ONLY THEN → [outcome]

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

THE ONE THING
— The single variable whose presence or absence determines which scenario actually unfolds
[One sentence naming the deciding variable]
INCIDENT: [Real past event showing this variable's power]
WATCH:    [Leading indicator — a milestone, metric, or policy action to monitor]
IF YES → [What accelerates]
IF NO  → [What stalls]

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

DECISION GUIDANCE
Recommended stance: [From deterministic probability logic]
Low-regret move:    [Action that pays off in multiple scenarios simultaneously]
Risk trigger:       [Highest-scored opposing signal — the one that could invalidate Probable]

[REGIONAL LENS — [REGION]]
Top multipliers: [STEEEP/temporal (Xx)]  [STEEEP/temporal (Xx)]
Key local variable: [One sentence on the dominant local structural factor]

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

METHODOLOGY KEY
Signal score (0–1)     Recency × source reliability × signal type × evidence strength — higher = fresher, better-sourced, stronger evidence
Confidence (0–100)     Signal density (0–40) + evidence balance (0–30) + historical grounding (0–30) − blind spot penalty (0–15)
Predictions            PROBABLE / PLAUSIBLE / POSSIBLE are independent scores (0–100 each, do NOT sum to 100)
                       Futures cone: a scenario can score high on multiple types simultaneously
STEEEP matrix          6 domains × 3 time horizons — ★ hot (>1.0) ● warm (>0.5) ✗ blind spot (0)
Historical similarity   Structural pattern match to real past transitions — 60%+ is reliable precedent; below 40% is weak grounding
Convergence bonus      +5 added to Probable score when 2+ STEEEP domains reinforce each other in the Strategic layer
Stability tiers        LOCKED = unlikely to change in 10yr | SHIFTING = could change in 3–5yr | FRAGILE = could reverse in 1–2yr
Preferable futures     Per stakeholder: Wins IF [condition] BUT ONLY [constraint] ONLY THEN [outcome]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

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## Visual Output (claude.ai with Artifacts)

If running on claude.ai and Artifacts are enabled, after the text report generate an HTML Artifact:

```html
<!-- Render a visual foresight report with:
  1. Predictions bar chart — horizontal bars for Probable/Plausible/Possible scores
  2. STEEEP matrix — 6×3 color-coded table (darker green = hotter cell, red = blind spot)
  3. Futures cone — SVG diagram showing 4 scenario bands expanding from present to horizon
  4. Stakeholder preferable cards — one card per player with Wins IF / BUT ONLY / ONLY THEN
  Use inline CSS only. No external dependencies. Dark background (#0f0f0f), accent color #00d4aa.
-->