Bull Bear

Build a bull/bear/base case scenario framework for the company specified by the user: $ARGUMENTS

Before starting, read ../data-access.md for data access methods and ../design-system.md for formatting conventions. Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.

Follow these steps:

1. Company Lookup

Look up the company by ticker using discover_companies. Capture:

• company_id
• latest_calendar_quarter — anchor for all period calculations below (see ../data-access.md Section 1.5)
• latest_fiscal_quarter
• Firm name for report attribution (default: "Daloopa") — see ../data-access.md Section 4.5

1b. Current Stock Price

Get the current stock price using get_stock_prices (see ../data-access.md Section 1.7). Pass company_id and dates for the 3 most recent calendar days — use the most recent returned close price. This is the anchor for scenario comparison: each scenario's implied value will be compared against this price to show upside/downside.

2. Historical Financial Baseline

Calculate 8 quarters backward from latest_calendar_quarter. Pull:

• Revenue
• Gross Profit / Gross Margin %
• Operating Income / Operating Margin %
• EBITDA (if not reported, compute as Operating Income + D&A — label "(calc.)")
• Net Income
• Diluted EPS
• Operating Cash Flow
• CapEx
• Free Cash Flow (compute as OCF - CapEx — label "(calc.)")
• Segment-level revenue breakdowns
• Geographic revenue breakdowns

Compute trailing 4-quarter totals for revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS, and FCF — these are the baseline the scenarios build from.

Flag any one-time items that distort quarters.

3. Key Operating KPIs

First, think about what the most important KPIs are for THIS specific company based on its business model and what drives its valuation. For example:

• SaaS/cloud: ARR, net revenue retention, RPO/cRPO, customers >$100K
• Consumer tech: DAU/MAU, ARPU, engagement metrics, installed base, paid subscribers
• E-commerce/marketplace: GMV, take rate, active buyers/sellers, order frequency
• Retail: same-store sales, store count, average ticket, transactions
• Telecom/media: subscribers, churn, ARPU, content spend
• Hardware: units shipped, ASP, attach rate
• Financial services: AUM, NIM, loan growth, credit quality metrics
• Pharma/biotech: pipeline stage, patient starts, scripts, market share

Search for those specific KPIs by name and pull them. These are the building blocks for bottoms-up scenario math.

Also pull capital allocation data: share count, buyback amounts, dividends.

4. Qualitative Research

Search SEC filings/documents across multiple queries. If any search returns empty, try alternative keywords before giving up.

• Risk factors: Try "risk", "uncertainty", "challenge"; fallback to "adverse", "headwind"
• Growth drivers: Try "growth", "opportunity", "expansion"; fallback to "momentum", "strong demand"
• Competitive dynamics: Try "competition", "market share"; fallback to "competitive"
• Management outlook: Try "outlook", "guidance", "expect"; fallback to "anticipate", "forward"
• Capital allocation: Try "repurchase", "dividend"; fallback to "buyback", "capital return"
• Macro/regulatory: Try "tariff", "regulatory"; fallback to "geopolitical", "compliance"

5. Consensus Positioning (if available)

If consensus estimates are available (see ../data-access.md Section 3), note:

• Where consensus revenue/EPS sits relative to your base case
• Whether the market is positioned closer to your bull or bear case
• Recent estimate revision trends (optimistic vs pessimistic drift)

If consensus data is not available, skip this section.

6. Construct Three Scenarios

For each scenario, build a bottoms-up revenue model showing key segment or product-level assumptions (e.g., units x ASP, subscribers x ARPU, segment growth rates). Don't just state a revenue range — show the math that gets there.

Bull Case

• Identify the most favorable realistic trajectory
• Key assumptions: revenue acceleration, margin expansion, KPI improvement, favorable macro/competitive shifts
• Quantify using historical highs and growth rates as anchors
• Show segment-level build: what needs to go right in each business line
• List specific catalysts that could drive this outcome
• Consider how capital allocation (buybacks) amplifies EPS upside

Base Case

• Extrapolate current trends forward
• Key assumptions: continuation of recent growth rates, stable margins, steady KPI progression
• This should be the "most likely" scenario grounded in the last 4-8 quarters of data
• Show segment-level build using current trend rates
• Reference historical analogs if applicable (e.g., prior product cycles, similar macro environments)