Meta Scenario Planning

What it does

When your agent uses it

• The user faces high uncertainty
• Needs to stress-test a strategy against different futures
• Prepare contingency plans — even if they say what if things go wrong
• What could the future look like

Example prompts

• “what if things go wrong”
• “what could the future look like”
• “how do we prepare for uncertainty”
• “/meta-scenario-planning”

Workflow steps

5 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

1. 1Identify driving forces: What macro-forces will most shape the future? (technology, regulation, economy, demographics, competition)
2. 2Select two critical uncertainties: The two most impactful forces with the most uncertain outcomes
3. 3Build the 2×2 matrix: Each axis is one uncertainty with two endpoints (e.g., "regulation: strict vs lax")
4. 4Name and describe four scenarios: Each quadrant is a distinct plausible future
5. 5Test strategies against all four: Which strategies work in most/all scenarios? Which only work in one?

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 4e7f4f8. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

• Tool permissions

  Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

  From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

• Runs code

  No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are markdown).

  From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

• Network

  No URLs in SKILL.md.

  From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

• Credentials

  Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

  From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Meta Scenario Planning loads about 1k tokens when it runs, and up to ~6.1k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 112 tokens; SKILL.md has 303 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it

~112

When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches

~1k

With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them

~6.1k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from asgard-ai-platform/skills at commit 4e7f4f8, republished under its MIT licence (© asgard-ai-platform). 303 words, ~1,008 tokens.

name

meta-scenario-planning

description

Conduct scenario planning to prepare for multiple plausible futures using driving forces, uncertainty axes, and the 2x2 scenario matrix. Use this skill when the user faces high uncertainty, needs to stress-test a strategy against different futures, or prepare contingency plans — even if they say 'what if things go wrong', 'what could the future look like', 'how do we prepare for uncertainty', or 'stress-test our strategy'.

metadata.category

WP-22 跨學科

metadata.tags

meta-thinking, scenario-planning, strategy, uncertainty

IRON LAW: Scenarios Are Not Predictions

Scenarios are PLAUSIBLE futures, not forecasts. The goal is NOT to predict
which future will happen, but to prepare strategies that work across
MULTIPLE possible futures. A strategy that only works in one scenario
is fragile.

# Scenario Planning: {Context}

## Driving Forces
| Force | Impact | Uncertainty | Selected? |
|-------|--------|------------|-----------|
| {force} | H/M/L | H/M/L | ✓/— |

## Scenario Matrix
- Axis 1: {Uncertainty A} — {endpoint 1} vs {endpoint 2}
- Axis 2: {Uncertainty B} — {endpoint 1} vs {endpoint 2}

| | {A: endpoint 1} | {A: endpoint 2} |
|---|---|---|
| **{B: endpoint 1}** | **"{Scenario Name}"**: {narrative} | **"{Scenario Name}"**: {narrative} |
| **{B: endpoint 2}** | **"{Scenario Name}"**: {narrative} | **"{Scenario Name}"**: {narrative} |

## Strategy Robustness Test
| Strategy | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 |
|----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
| {strategy A} | ✓/△/✗ | ✓/△/✗ | ✓/△/✗ | ✓/△/✗ |

## Robust Strategies
{Strategies that work in most scenarios}

## Contingency Triggers
- If {early signal}, activate {contingency plan for scenario X}

© asgard-ai-platform, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 2 other files (references) in meta-scenario-planning of asgard-ai-platform/skills.

• SKILL.md
• examples/sample_scenario.md
• references/shell-method.md

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 4e7f4f8