Econ Business Cycle

What it does

When your agent uses it

• The user needs to identify the current economic phase
• Anticipate cyclical turning points
• Adapt business strategy to macroeconomic cycles — even if they say are we heading into a recession
• How should we prepare for a downturn

Example prompts

• “are we heading into a recession”
• “how should we prepare for a downturn”
• “when will the economy recover”
• “/econ-business-cycle”

Workflow steps

4 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.

1. 1Check leading indicators: PMI, yield curve, stock market, consumer confidence, building permits
2. 2Check coincident indicators: Industrial production, retail sales, employment
3. 3Check lagging indicators: Unemployment rate, CPI, corporate profits, loan delinquency
4. 4Look for divergence: Leading indicators turning while lagging are still strong = inflection point

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 4e7f4f8. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

• Tool permissions

  Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

  From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

• Runs code

  No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are markdown).

  From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

• Network

  No URLs in SKILL.md.

  From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

• Credentials

  Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

  From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Econ Business Cycle loads about 1.5k tokens when it runs, and up to ~4.3k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 112 tokens; SKILL.md has 532 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it

~112

When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches

~1.5k

With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them

~4.3k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from asgard-ai-platform/skills at commit 4e7f4f8, republished under its MIT licence (© asgard-ai-platform). 532 words, ~1,541 tokens.

name

econ-business-cycle

description

Analyze business cycle phases (expansion, peak, contraction, trough) and their implications for business strategy and policy response. Use this skill when the user needs to identify the current economic phase, anticipate cyclical turning points, or adapt business strategy to macroeconomic cycles — even if they say 'are we heading into a recession', 'how should we prepare for a downturn', or 'when will the economy recover'.

metadata.category

WP-17 經濟學院

metadata.tags

economics, business-cycle, macroeconomics

IRON LAW: Cycles Are Inevitable, Timing Is Not Predictable

Business cycles WILL happen — no economy grows forever. But predicting
EXACTLY when a peak or trough occurs is unreliable. Focus on identifying
the CURRENT phase and preparing for the NEXT one, not predicting exact
turning points.

# Business Cycle Assessment: {Country/Region}

## Current Phase: {Expansion / Peak / Contraction / Trough}

## Evidence
| Category | Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|----------|-----------|---------|--------|
| Leading | PMI | XX | {interpretation} |
| Leading | Yield curve | XX bps | {interpretation} |
| Coincident | Industrial production | X% YoY | {interpretation} |
| Lagging | Unemployment | X% | {interpretation} |

## Phase Progression
{Where we are in the cycle and directional signals}

## Strategic Implications
| Domain | Recommendation |
|--------|---------------|
| Investment | {expand/hold/cut} |
| Hiring | {hire/freeze/reduce} |
| Inventory | {build/maintain/liquidate} |
| Pricing | {raise/hold/discount} |
| Cash management | {deploy/conserve} |

© asgard-ai-platform, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 2 other files (references) in econ-business-cycle of asgard-ai-platform/skills.

• SKILL.md
• examples/sample_scenario.md
• references/taiwan-cycles.md

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 4e7f4f8