Agent skill

Algo Sc Bullwhip

by asgard-ai-platform in asgard-ai-platform/skills

Analyze and mitigate the bullwhip effect where demand variability amplifies upstream in supply chains.

MITAuto-check passedSecurity

Install Algo Sc Bullwhip

skills CLI
$ npx skills add asgard-ai-platform/skills --skill algo-sc-bullwhip -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI
$ gh skill install asgard-ai-platform/skills algo-sc-bullwhip --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/asgard-ai-platform/skills.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/algo-sc-bullwhip .claude/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Facts

Skill name
algo-sc-bullwhip
GitHub stars
242
Token cost
~1.1k tokens
SKILL.md length
403 words
Files
4 (incl. references)
Skills in repo
207
Repo updated
First seen
Licence
MIT

At a glance

Analyze and mitigate the bullwhip effect where demand variability amplifies upstream in supply chains.

  • Works in 4 steps: Input Validation → Core Algorithm → Verification → …
  • The user needs to diagnose order variability amplification
  • SKILL.md covers Overview, When to Use, Algorithm and Output Format, plus 3 more sections
  • Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md

What it does

Algo Sc Bullwhip is an agent skill from asgard-ai-platform/skills. Analyze and mitigate the bullwhip effect where demand variability amplifies upstream in supply chains. Use this skill when the user needs to diagnose order variability amplification, quantify the bullwhip ratio, or implement dampening strategies — even if they say 'why are our orders so volatile', 'supply chain variability', or 'demand amplification problem'.

Its SKILL.md is about 1.1k tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 5 other files, including reference files (for example `examples/sample_scenario.md`, `references/bullwhip-model.md` and `references/information-sharing.md`).

It sits in Security, covering Supply chain security. The repository describes itself as: 301 open-source coding agent skills across 22 domains — methodology, judgment & gotchas packaged as Claude Agent Skills for the Asgard AI Platform. The licence is MIT.

When your agent uses it

  • The user needs to diagnose order variability amplification
  • Quantify the bullwhip ratio
  • Implement dampening strategies — even if they say why are our orders so volatile
  • Supply chain variability

Example prompts

  • “why are our orders so volatile”
  • “supply chain variability”
  • “demand amplification problem”
  • “/algo-sc-bullwhip”

Workflow steps

4 steps, taken from the step headings in SKILL.md.

  1. Input Validation
  2. Core Algorithm
  3. Verification
  4. Output

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit 4e7f4f8. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

  • Tool permissions

    Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.

    From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.

  • Runs code

    No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md (its code samples are json).

    From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.

  • Network

    No URLs in SKILL.md.

    From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.

  • Credentials

    Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.

    From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Algo Sc Bullwhip loads about 1.1k tokens when it runs, and up to ~6.1k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 95 tokens; SKILL.md has 403 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it
~95
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches
~1.1k
With references · SKILL.md plus every file in references/, read only if the agent opens them
~6.1k

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from asgard-ai-platform/skills at commit 4e7f4f8, republished under its MIT licence (© asgard-ai-platform). 403 words, ~1,133 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 3 other files; get the full folder from GitHub.
name
algo-sc-bullwhip
description
Analyze and mitigate the bullwhip effect where demand variability amplifies upstream in supply chains. Use this skill when the user needs to diagnose order variability amplification, quantify the bullwhip ratio, or implement dampening strategies — even if they say 'why are our orders so volatile', 'supply chain variability', or 'demand amplification problem'.
metadata.category
WP-41 供應鏈演算法
metadata.tags
supply-chain, bullwhip-effect, demand-variability, coordination

Bullwhip Effect Analysis

Overview

The bullwhip effect describes how small fluctuations in consumer demand amplify progressively at each upstream stage of the supply chain. A 5% retail demand increase can become a 40% order spike at the manufacturer. Caused by demand signal processing, order batching, price fluctuations, and rationing/shortage gaming.

When to Use

Trigger conditions:

  • Diagnosing why supplier orders are far more volatile than end-consumer demand
  • Quantifying demand amplification across supply chain tiers
  • Designing strategies to reduce order variability

When NOT to use:

  • When demand is genuinely volatile (not amplified) — the issue is demand forecasting
  • For single-echelon inventory optimization (use EOQ or safety stock)

Algorithm

IRON LAW: Demand Variability Amplifies at EACH Upstream Stage
Bullwhip ratio = Var(orders) / Var(demand). A ratio > 1 at any stage
confirms the bullwhip effect. The four root causes (Lee et al., 1997):
1. Demand signal processing (forecasting with moving averages)
2. Order batching (periodic review, MOQs)
3. Price fluctuations (forward buying during promotions)
4. Rationing and shortage gaming (inflating orders during scarcity)
Phase 1: Input Validation

Collect: end-consumer demand time series AND order time series at each supply chain stage (retailer → distributor → manufacturer → supplier). Gate: At least 2 tiers of order data, minimum 26 periods.

Phase 2: Core Algorithm
  1. Compute variance of demand at each tier
  2. Compute bullwhip ratio per tier: BWR_i = Var(orders_i) / Var(orders_{i-1})
  3. Identify contribution of each cause: batch size analysis, promotion calendar overlap, forecast method evaluation
  4. Quantify cost: excess inventory carrying cost, expediting cost, capacity misallocation
Phase 3: Verification

Check: BWR > 1 at upstream stages (confirms bullwhip). Correlate order spikes with identifiable causes (promotions, forecast updates, batch cycles). Gate: Bullwhip quantified and root causes identified.

Phase 4: Output

Return bullwhip ratios with root cause attribution and mitigation recommendations.

Output Format

json
{
  "bullwhip_ratios": [{"tier": "retailer→distributor", "ratio": 1.8}, {"tier": "distributor→manufacturer", "ratio": 2.3}],
  "root_causes": [{"cause": "order_batching", "contribution_pct": 40}, {"cause": "demand_signal_processing", "contribution_pct": 35}],
  "metadata": {"periods": 52, "tiers_analyzed": 3}
}

Examples

Sample I/O

Input: Consumer demand CV=0.10, Retailer orders CV=0.18, Distributor orders CV=0.32 Expected: BWR retailer=3.24 (0.18²/0.10²), BWR distributor=3.16 (0.32²/0.18²). Strong bullwhip confirmed.

Show full SKILL.md (151 more words)Show less
Edge Cases
InputExpectedWhy
BWR < 1Smoothing effectInformation sharing or VMI may dampen variability
Promotional periodsSpike in BWRForward buying amplifies orders
Single tier onlyCannot measure amplificationNeed at least 2 tiers for comparison

Gotchas

  • Data granularity: Weekly vs monthly data can show different bullwhip magnitudes. Use consistent time buckets across tiers.
  • VMI and CPFR: Vendor-managed inventory and collaborative planning reduce bullwhip by sharing demand data. But they require trust and IT integration.
  • Information sharing ≠ bullwhip elimination: Even with POS data sharing, lead times and batch constraints still cause some amplification.
  • Shortage gaming is hardest to fix: During shortages, customers inflate orders. When supply recovers, cancellations flood in. Only committed-quantity allocations prevent this.
  • Measurement challenges: True consumer demand is often unobserved (only POS data). Lost sales from stockouts are invisible, understating true demand variability.

References

  • For Lee-Padmanabhan-Whang formal model, see references/bullwhip-model.md
  • For information sharing strategies, see references/information-sharing.md

© asgard-ai-platform, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file

Files

SKILL.md and 3 other files (references) in algo-sc-bullwhip of asgard-ai-platform/skills.

  • SKILL.md
  • examples/sample_scenario.md
  • references/bullwhip-model.md
  • references/information-sharing.md

Open the folder on GitHubat commit 4e7f4f8

Compare with similar skills

Algo Sc Bullwhip next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

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Kesekit Checkcdppcorp/KESE-KIT360—~1.3kAutomated safety check: PassMIT
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Categories

Questions about Algo Sc Bullwhip

What does Algo Sc Bullwhip do?

Analyze and mitigate the bullwhip effect where demand variability amplifies upstream in supply chains. Algo Sc Bullwhip is an agent skill from asgard-ai-platform/skills. Analyze and mitigate the bullwhip effect where demand variability amplifies upstream in supply chains.

When should I use Algo Sc Bullwhip?

Algo Sc Bullwhip fits situations like: the user needs to diagnose order variability amplification; quantify the bullwhip ratio; implement dampening strategies — even if they say why are our orders so volatile; supply chain variability.

How do I install Algo Sc Bullwhip in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add asgard-ai-platform/skills --skill algo-sc-bullwhip -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (algo-sc-bullwhip in asgard-ai-platform/skills) into .claude/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Algo Sc Bullwhip in Codex?

Run `npx skills add asgard-ai-platform/skills --skill algo-sc-bullwhip -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (algo-sc-bullwhip in asgard-ai-platform/skills) into .agents/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Algo Sc Bullwhip in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add asgard-ai-platform/skills --skill algo-sc-bullwhip -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip, .gemini/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip, .github/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip and .opencode/skills/algo-sc-bullwhip in your project.

What does Algo Sc Bullwhip need to run?

SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Algo Sc Bullwhip is instructions for the agent only.

Does Algo Sc Bullwhip access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Algo Sc Bullwhip safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Algo Sc Bullwhip use?

Algo Sc Bullwhip is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Algo Sc Bullwhip use?

About 1.1k tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 4.5k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 4.9k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.

What are the alternatives to Algo Sc Bullwhip?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Algo Sc Bullwhip: Skill Scanner (getsentry/skills, 1k stars), Serenity Aleabitoreddit (yan-labs/serenity-aleabitoreddit, 481 stars), Eu Cra (Sushegaad/Claude-Skills-Governance-Risk-and-Compliance, 946 stars) and Kesekit Check (cdppcorp/KESE-KIT, 360 stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Algo Sc Bullwhip?

asgard-ai-platform (a GitHub organization) maintains it in asgard-ai-platform/skills, which has 242 GitHub stars. The repository holds 207 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on June 6, 2026.

Source: asgard-ai-platform/skills on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.