Autopilot Predict
ruvnet/ruflo
Use learned patterns and current state to predict the optimal next action
A skill your agent uses when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it.
MITAuto-check passed
Install Reality Testing Decisions
$ npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a claude-codeProject install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.
$ gh skill install apple-ouyang/book-to-skill reality-testing-decisions --agent claude-codeProject scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/reality-testing-decisions .claude/skills/reality-testing-decisions && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.
Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/
Install the "reality-testing-decisions" agent skill from https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisions into .claude/skills/reality-testing-decisions/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "reality-testing-decisions", then confirm the skill loads.Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$skill-installer install https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisionsType this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.
$ npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a codexProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.
$ gh skill install apple-ouyang/book-to-skill reality-testing-decisions --agent codexProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/reality-testing-decisions .agents/skills/reality-testing-decisions && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.
Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/
Install the "reality-testing-decisions" agent skill from https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisions into .agents/skills/reality-testing-decisions/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "reality-testing-decisions", then confirm the skill loads.Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a cursorProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.
$ gh skill install apple-ouyang/book-to-skill reality-testing-decisions --agent cursorProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/reality-testing-decisions .cursor/skills/reality-testing-decisions && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.
Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/
Install the "reality-testing-decisions" agent skill from https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisions into .cursor/skills/reality-testing-decisions/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "reality-testing-decisions", then confirm the skill loads.Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gemini skills install https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git --path skills/reality-testing-decisions--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.
$ npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a gemini-cliProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.
$ gh skill install apple-ouyang/book-to-skill reality-testing-decisions --agent gemini-cliProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/reality-testing-decisions .gemini/skills/reality-testing-decisions && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.
Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "reality-testing-decisions" agent skill from https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisions into .gemini/skills/reality-testing-decisions/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "reality-testing-decisions", then confirm the skill loads.Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ gh skill install apple-ouyang/book-to-skill reality-testing-decisionsInstalls for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).
$ npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a github-copilotProject install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/reality-testing-decisions .github/skills/reality-testing-decisions && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.
GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "reality-testing-decisions" agent skill from https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisions into .github/skills/reality-testing-decisions/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "reality-testing-decisions", then confirm the skill loads.GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
$ npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a opencodeOpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.
$ gh skill install apple-ouyang/book-to-skill reality-testing-decisions --agent opencodeProject scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.
$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/skills/reality-testing-decisions .opencode/skills/reality-testing-decisions && rm -rf skills-srcUse ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.
OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/
Install the "reality-testing-decisions" agent skill from https://github.com/apple-ouyang/book-to-skill/tree/main/skills/reality-testing-decisions into .opencode/skills/reality-testing-decisions/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "reality-testing-decisions", then confirm the skill loads.OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.
Facts
- Skill name
reality-testing-decisions- GitHub stars
- 161
- Token cost
- ~639 tokens
- SKILL.md length
- 129 words
- Files
- 2 (incl. references)
- Skills in repo
- 6
- Repo updated
- First seen
- Licence
- MIT
At a glance
A skill your agent uses when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it.
- Works in 7 steps: 把法律摘要带回家，做三次修改 → 做两次修改 → 做一次修改 → …
- Tempted to predict
- SKILL.md covers 任务目标, 为什么预测不可靠, 操作步骤 and 注意事项, plus 2 more sections
- Instructions only: no scripts, shell commands, URLs or credentials in SKILL.md
What it does
Reality Testing Decisions is an agent skill from apple-ouyang/book-to-skill. Use when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it. When facing uncertainty about a decision, product, hire, or opportunity and relying on gut feeling or expert opinions.
Its SKILL.md is about 640 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 2 other files, including reference files (for example `references/cases.md`).
The repository describes itself as: 把书拆成 AI Agent 可执行的 Skill，让书中的智慧变成你的决策副驾驶 | Turn books into executable AI Agent Skills. The licence is MIT.
When your agent uses it
- Tempted to predict
- Debate whether something will work instead of testing it
Example prompts
- “/reality-testing-decisions”
Workflow steps
7 steps, taken from the first numbered list in SKILL.md.
- 把法律摘要带回家，做三次修改
- 做两次修改
- 做一次修改
- 晚下班一小时，把摘要留在办公室
- 按时回家，不做多余修改
- 刻意留下一个标点错误
- 刻意留下一个语法错误
What it can do on your machine
Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit a24960a. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.
Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
No scripts in the folder and no shell commands in SKILL.md.
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.
Context cost
Reality Testing Decisions loads about 639 tokens when it runs, and up to ~3.9k if it reads all its reference files. Until then it costs about 61 tokens; SKILL.md has 129 words of instructions outside code blocks.
Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.
Safety
Auto-check passed
The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.
Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.
SKILL.md
The full file from apple-ouyang/book-to-skill at commit a24960a, republished under its MIT licence (© apple-ouyang). 129 words, ~639 tokens.
Download SKILL.mdSave it as
.claude/skills/reality-testing-decisions/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 1 other file; get the full folder from GitHub.- name
- reality-testing-decisions
- description
- Use when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it. When facing uncertainty about a decision, product, hire, or opportunity and relying on gut feeling or expert opinions.
用实验替代预测
任务目标
把"这个会不会成功？"的预测问题，转化为"怎么用最小成本验证？"的实验问题。
核心前提：我们对自己预测未来的能力严重高估。不要猜，不要感觉，去测试。
为什么预测不可靠
Tetlock 收集了 82361 个专家预测，结论：专家预测不如基本比率（用历史平均值外推），而基本比率又不如小规模实验。
额外的教育、20年经验、博士学位——都不能提高预测精度。反而，媒体曝光度越高的专家，预测越不准。
基本比率的力量：共同基金 vs 指数基金——基本比率数据如此清晰，以至于选共同基金几乎必然让你退休时更穷。当基本比率足够明确时，直接用它，不需要再做实验。
结论：只要有可能，就应该完全避免预测，用实验代替。
操作步骤
第一步：识别你在预测什么
把当前的问题写出来。如果它的形式是：
- "我觉得这个产品会有市场"
- "我感觉这个人能胜任"
- "我认为这个方向是对的"
这就是在预测。继续下一步。
第二步：设计最小实验
问：用什么最小行动，可以在现实中得到反馈？
不同场景的实验设计：
产品/项目验证
- CarsDirect 案例：不争论"网上卖车有没有人买"，直接建个假网站，第一天卖出 3 辆车
- 亦仁原则：号是消耗品，先发垃圾内容让市场反馈，不要等到完美再发
- 默认项目都是通的，默认数据都是假的——对项目乐观去了解细节，对收入数据悲观谨慎投入
招聘/合作
- 面试表现和工作表现几乎不相关（医学院研究：面试排名第 700 和第 100 的学生，入学后表现无差异）
- 工作样本 > 面试：让候选人做一个真实任务，用结果评判，不用印象评判
- 希望实验室：给潜在员工 3 周咨询合约，"面试表现最佳的人常常工作表现最差"
- Steve Cole / HopeLab：$100k 设计项目，不赌一家公司，同时雇 5 家只做第一阶段（$20k），用实际表现而非提案选人。从「OR 思维」转向「AND 思维」
职业/方向选择
- 想读药学院？先去药房工作几周，哪怕无薪
- NI 无线传感器：副总裁在投入 200-300 万前，先接了一个大学教授的小项目，走通了再加大投入
- 绝对不投入做任何无法亲自体验和感受的项目
大家都觉得不靠谱的想法
- 印度农民 app：库克和团队不看好，但让团队试了，农民收入提高 20%，最终 32.5 万农民使用
- 不试试怎么知道靠不靠谱？
创业验证
- 烘焙创业（Heath Brothers 案例）：想开烘焙店，不要直接辞职全职投入。先在当地农贸市场摆一个月摊位，观察：有没有回头客？有没有盈利？盲测中你的产品排名如何？用真实市场反馈替代"邻居都夸我的布朗尼"式的自我确认。
- 药学院实习（Heath Brothers 案例）：想读药学院的学生，先去 3 家不同药房各实习 1 个月，而不是直接报名。实习成本：时间。替代的错误成本：4 年学费 + 发现不喜欢这份工作。
第三步：渐进式实验（当恐惧阻止你测试时）
强迫症律师佩吉的 7 步实验——当你觉得"万一出错怎么办"时，把实验拆得更小：
- 把法律摘要带回家，做三次修改
- 做两次修改
- 做一次修改
- 晚下班一小时，把摘要留在办公室
- 按时回家，不做多余修改
- 刻意留下一个标点错误
- 刻意留下一个语法错误
结果：没有公司败诉，没有人被解雇，甚至没有人注意到错误。
原理：每完成一步，你就获得了真实数据，而不是继续在脑子里预测"天会不会塌"。
第四步：判断何时停止实验，直接跳入
实验不是拖延的借口。两种情况要区分：
- 杰森（应该实验）：对海洋生物学感兴趣但不了解，先跟随一周，旁听几节课，确认后全力投入
- 马歇尔（不应该实验）：已经确定需要学位，用"先上一节课试试"来拖延，这是逃避
- 丈夫想辞职（DecisiveWorkbook 案例）：如果他在幻想另一份职业，先 ooch——赛车手梦想不像他想象的那么容易实现。但如果他已经确定要换工作，就设定触发条件（"找到下一份工作再辞"），而不是无限期实验。
如果你已经确定了方向，小步尝试就是拖延。
注意事项
- 企业家和公司高管最大的区别：高管相信"预测未来才能控制未来"，企业家相信"控制未来就不需要预测它"
- 60% 的世界 500 强 CEO 创业前没写过商业计划书——他们直接去卖
- 实验的成本要足够低：亦仁标准是验证一个项目总花费控制在一个月工资以内，优先找只需要时间不需要钱的实验
- 寻找反馈周期在三个月以内的实验；反馈周期太长，大多数人坚持不下去
使用示例
场景：考虑做一个新产品
- 不要做：分析市场、写商业计划、讨论可行性
- 要做：建一个最简单的落地页，看有没有人点击"购买"；或者直接去卖，哪怕产品还没做好
场景：考虑招一个人
- 不要做：多轮面试、性格测试、背景调查
- 要做：给他一个真实的小任务，付费，看结果
场景：考虑转行
- 不要做：研究行业报告、问朋友意见、反复权衡
- 要做：去目标行业实习一个月，哪怕无薪
案例库
- 完整案例库（来源：《行为设计学》第 5-7 章）
© apple-ouyang, MIT. Rendered from Markdown: HTML in the file is shown as text, images as links, and headings moved down two levels. Raw file
Files
SKILL.md and 1 other file (references) in skills/reality-testing-decisions of apple-ouyang/book-to-skill.
- SKILL.md
- references/cases.md
Open the folder on GitHubat commit a24960a
Compare with similar skills
Reality Testing Decisions next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.
| Skill | Stars | Used in | Tokens | Auto-check | Licence | Repo updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reality Testing Decisions this skillapple-ouyang/book-to-skill | 161 | — | ~639 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Autopilot Predictruvnet/ruflo | 74k | — | ~337 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Crossframe Debatesickn33/agentic-awesome-skills | 47k | 1 repos | ~1k | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Prediction Market Oracle Researchaffaan-m/ECC | 276k | 1 repos | ~577 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Prediction Market Risk Reviewaffaan-m/ECC | 276k | 1 repos | ~471 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT | |
| Footballbin Predictionsdavila7/claude-code-templates | 33k | — | ~634 | Automated safety check: Pass | MIT |
Similar skills
Crossframe Debate
sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills
A skill your agent uses when CrossFrame Suite routes explicit Chinese proposition testing, debate analysis, hidden-premise review, rebuttal design, or withdrawal condition checks.
Prediction Market Oracle Research
affaan-m/ECC
Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence.
Prediction Market Risk Review
affaan-m/ECC
Review prediction-market, basket, oracle, and trading-agent workflows for compliance, safety, data-quality, privacy, and execution risk.
Footballbin Predictions
davila7/claude-code-templates
Get AI-powered match predictions for Premier League and Champions League including scores, next goal, and corners.
Yann Lecun Debate
sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills
Sub-skill de debates e posições de Yann LeCun. An agent skill from sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills.
More from apple-ouyang/book-to-skill
Making Decisions
apple-ouyang/book-to-skill
A skill your agent uses when facing a significant decision, evaluating options, or feeling stuck between choices.
Seeking Disconfirming Evidence
apple-ouyang/book-to-skill
A skill your agent uses when a decision feels obvious or everyone agrees, when evaluating omeone's proposal or pitch, when in a team debate that's going nowhere, or when you suspect confirmation…
Swarm
apple-ouyang/book-to-skill
This skill should be used when the user asks to "create a team", "create agent team", "蜂群", "swarm", "团队协作", "parallel agents", "spawn teammates", "多 agent 协作", "组建团队", or executes "/swarm".
Decision Tripwires
apple-ouyang/book-to-skill
A skill your agent uses when committing resources to a project, investment, or relationship.
Book To Skill
apple-ouyang/book-to-skill
把一本书拆解成 Claude Code 可执行的 Skill。当用户说"拆书"、"把这本书变成 Skill"、"book to skill"、"extract skill from book" 时触发。
Questions about Reality Testing Decisions
What does Reality Testing Decisions do?
A skill your agent uses when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it. Reality Testing Decisions is an agent skill from apple-ouyang/book-to-skill. Use when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it.
When should I use Reality Testing Decisions?
Reality Testing Decisions fits situations like: tempted to predict; debate whether something will work instead of testing it.
How do I install Reality Testing Decisions in Claude Code?
Run `npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/reality-testing-decisions in apple-ouyang/book-to-skill) into .claude/skills/reality-testing-decisions in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.
How do I install Reality Testing Decisions in Codex?
Run `npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (skills/reality-testing-decisions in apple-ouyang/book-to-skill) into .agents/skills/reality-testing-decisions in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.
Can I use Reality Testing Decisions in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?
Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add apple-ouyang/book-to-skill --skill reality-testing-decisions -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/reality-testing-decisions, .gemini/skills/reality-testing-decisions, .github/skills/reality-testing-decisions and .opencode/skills/reality-testing-decisions in your project.
What does Reality Testing Decisions need to run?
SKILL.md names no scripts, command-line tools or credentials: Reality Testing Decisions is instructions for the agent only.
Does Reality Testing Decisions access the network?
SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.
Is Reality Testing Decisions safe to install?
Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.
What licence does Reality Testing Decisions use?
Reality Testing Decisions is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.
How many tokens does Reality Testing Decisions use?
About 639 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 2.6k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full. Its references folder adds about 3.3k tokens, read only when the agent opens those files.
What are the alternatives to Reality Testing Decisions?
Skills that share tags, products or a category with Reality Testing Decisions: Autopilot Predict (ruvnet/ruflo, 74k stars), Crossframe Debate (sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills, 47k stars), Prediction Market Oracle Research (affaan-m/ECC, 276k stars) and Prediction Market Risk Review (affaan-m/ECC, 276k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.
Who maintains Reality Testing Decisions?
apple-ouyang (a GitHub user) maintains it in apple-ouyang/book-to-skill, which has 161 GitHub stars. The repository holds 6 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on February 25, 2026.
Source: apple-ouyang/book-to-skill on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.