Agent skill

Research

by alsk1992 in alsk1992/CloddsBot

Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data

MITAuto-check passed

Install Research

skills CLI

$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a claude-code

Project install by default; add -g for ~/.claude/skills/.

GitHub CLI

$ gh skill install alsk1992/CloddsBot research --agent claude-code

Project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

Manual copy

$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git skills-src && mkdir -p .claude/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/bundled/research .claude/skills/research && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.claude/skills/ instead of .claude/skills for a personal install. The folder must contain SKILL.md.

Claude Code skills documentation · loads skills from .claude/skills/

Paste into Claude Code

Install the "research" agent skill from https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research into .claude/skills/research/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "research", then confirm the skill loads.

Claude Code copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.

$skill-installer

$skill-installer install https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research

Type this inside Codex. $skill-installer <name> installs a curated skill from openai/skills. The installer writes to $CODEX_HOME/skills (default ~/.codex/skills). Restart Codex if the skill does not show up.

skills CLI

$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a codex

Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.codex/skills/.

GitHub CLI

$ gh skill install alsk1992/CloddsBot research --agent codex

Project scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.

Manual copy

$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git skills-src && mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/bundled/research .agents/skills/research && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.agents/skills/ instead of .agents/skills for a personal install.

Codex skills documentation · loads skills from .agents/skills/

Paste into Codex

Install the "research" agent skill from https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research into .agents/skills/research/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "research", then confirm the skill loads.

Codex copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.

skills CLI

$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a cursor

Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.cursor/skills/.

GitHub CLI

$ gh skill install alsk1992/CloddsBot research --agent cursor

Project scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.

Manual copy

$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git skills-src && mkdir -p .cursor/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/bundled/research .cursor/skills/research && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.cursor/skills/ instead of .cursor/skills for a personal install.

Cursor skills documentation · loads skills from .cursor/skills/, .agents/skills/, .claude/skills/, .codex/skills/

Paste into Cursor

Install the "research" agent skill from https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research into .cursor/skills/research/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "research", then confirm the skill loads.

Cursor copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.

gemini skills install

$ gemini skills install https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git --path src/skills/bundled/research

--scope user (default) or --scope workspace; --path is the subfolder of the repo that holds the skill; --consent skips the security confirmation prompt.

skills CLI

$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a gemini-cli

Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.gemini/skills/.

GitHub CLI

$ gh skill install alsk1992/CloddsBot research --agent gemini-cli

Project scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.

Manual copy

$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git skills-src && mkdir -p .gemini/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/bundled/research .gemini/skills/research && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.gemini/skills/ instead of .gemini/skills for a personal install, then run /skills reload.

Gemini CLI skills documentation · loads skills from .gemini/skills/, .agents/skills/

Paste into Gemini CLI

Install the "research" agent skill from https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research into .gemini/skills/research/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "research", then confirm the skill loads.

Gemini CLI copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.

GitHub CLI

$ gh skill install alsk1992/CloddsBot research

Installs for Copilot at project scope by default; add --scope user for a personal install. Preview a skill first with gh skill preview. Needs GitHub CLI 2.90.0 or later (public preview).

skills CLI

$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a github-copilot

Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.copilot/skills/.

Manual copy

$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git skills-src && mkdir -p .github/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/bundled/research .github/skills/research && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.copilot/skills/ instead of .github/skills for a personal install. Commit .github/skills so cloud agent and code review can use it.

GitHub Copilot skills documentation · loads skills from .github/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/

Paste into GitHub Copilot

Install the "research" agent skill from https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research into .github/skills/research/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "research", then confirm the skill loads.

GitHub Copilot copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.

skills CLI

$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a opencode

OpenCode documents no install command of its own. Project install goes to .agents/skills/; add -g for ~/.config/opencode/skills/.

GitHub CLI

$ gh skill install alsk1992/CloddsBot research --agent opencode

Project scope by default (.agents/skills/); add --scope user for a personal install.

Manual copy

$ git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot.git skills-src && mkdir -p .opencode/skills && cp -r skills-src/src/skills/bundled/research .opencode/skills/research && rm -rf skills-src

Use ~/.config/opencode/skills/ instead of .opencode/skills for a personal install.

OpenCode skills documentation · loads skills from .opencode/skills/, .claude/skills/, .agents/skills/

Paste into OpenCode

Install the "research" agent skill from https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research into .opencode/skills/research/ in this project. Copy the whole folder (SKILL.md and every file beside it), keep the folder name "research", then confirm the skill loads.

OpenCode copies the folder itself, the same result as the manual copy. Check what it changed before you commit it.

Facts

Skill name: research
GitHub stars: 2.9k
Used in: 1 other repo
Token cost: ~451 tokens
SKILL.md length: 132 words
Files: 2
Skills in repo: 116
Repo updated: Oct 2, 2026
First seen: Oct 7, 2026
Licence: MIT

At a glance

Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data

SKILL.md covers Commands, Research Areas, Examples and Output Format
Runs TypeScript scripts from its folder

What it does

Research is an agent skill from alsk1992/CloddsBot. Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data

Its SKILL.md is about 450 tokens, which your agent loads only when the skill is triggered. The skill folder holds 1 other file (for example `index.ts`).

The repository describes itself as: Open Source AI trading agent that operates autonomously across 1000+ markets - Polymarket, Kalshi, Binance, Hyperliquid, Solana DEXs, 5 EVM chains. Scans for edge, executes… The licence is MIT.

Example prompts

“/research”

Requirements

Node.js

What it can do on your machine

Read from SKILL.md and the folder at commit c930628. It shows what the files ask for, not the result of running them.

Tool permissions
Pre-approves nothing: there is no allowed-tools line, so your agent's usual permission prompts apply.
From allowed-tools in the SKILL.md frontmatter.
Runs code
Ships script files (TypeScript), which the agent can run.
From the folder's file list and the shell code blocks in SKILL.md.
Network
No URLs in SKILL.md.
From URLs in SKILL.md, links to its own repository left out.
Credentials
Names no API keys, tokens, secrets or passwords.
From names ending in _API_KEY, _TOKEN, _SECRET, _KEY or _PASSWORD in SKILL.md.

Context cost

Research loads about 451 tokens when it runs. Until then it costs about 21 tokens; SKILL.md has 132 words of instructions outside code blocks.

Always · name and description, kept in context so the agent knows when to use it: ~21
When it runs · the whole SKILL.md, loaded when a task matches: ~451

Estimates: characters ÷ 4, the usual rule of thumb; real counts depend on the model's tokenizer. Scripts and assets cost tokens only if the agent reads them.

Safety

Auto-check passed

The automated check found no risky patterns in SKILL.md.

Automated static check — not a guarantee. Review scripts before installing. It scans the text of SKILL.md for risky patterns (piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files, hidden Unicode, destructive commands); files beside SKILL.md are not scanned.

SKILL.md

The full file from alsk1992/CloddsBot at commit c930628, republished under its MIT licence (© alsk1992). 132 words, ~451 tokens.

Download SKILL.mdSave it as .claude/skills/research/SKILL.md (or your agent's skills folder). This skill also uses 1 other file; get the full folder from GitHub.

name: research
description: Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
emoji: 🔬

Research Skill

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

Commands

Base Rate Lookup

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

Political Markets

Incumbent win rates by office type
Primary prediction accuracy
Polling vs outcome correlations
Electoral college patterns

Economic Markets

Fed rate decision patterns
Recession indicator accuracy
Inflation forecast track records
Employment report surprises

Sports/Events

Historical upset frequencies
Weather event base rates
Award show prediction accuracy

Examples

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed

Output Format

🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report

Files

SKILL.md and 1 other file in src/skills/bundled/research of alsk1992/CloddsBot.

SKILL.md
index.ts

Open the folder on GitHubat commit c930628

Used in 1 other repository

We found 1 copy of this SKILL.md (exact, near-identical or edited) in other folders, from 1 other GitHub owner. This page covers the copy in alsk1992/CloddsBot, which our catalogue first saw on October 7, 2026.

majiayu000/claude-skill-registryskills/analysis/research-alsk1992-cloddsbot

Compare with similar skills

Research next to the 5 skills that share the most tags, products or categories with it. Stars are the repository's; “used in” counts other GitHub owners with a copy.

Research compared with similar skills
Skill	Stars	Used in	Tokens	Auto-check	Licence	Repo updated
Research this skillalsk1992/CloddsBot	2.9k	1 repos	~451	Automated safety check: Pass	MIT	6 days ago
Prediction Market Oracle Researchaffaan-m/ECC	275k	1 repos	~577	Automated safety check: Pass	MIT	3 days ago
Prediction Market Risk Reviewaffaan-m/ECC	275k	1 repos	~471	Automated safety check: Pass	MIT	3 days ago
Marketing Campaignaffaan-m/ECC	275k	1 repos	~1.3k	Automated safety check: Pass	MIT	3 days ago
Market Researchalirezarezvani/claude-skills	28k	—	~2.6k	Automated safety check: Pass	MIT	1 mo ago
Market Sizing Analysiswshobson/agents	40k	1 repos	~620	Automated safety check: Pass	MIT	4 days ago

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Questions about Research

What does Research do?

Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data. Research is an agent skill from alsk1992/CloddsBot.

How do I install Research in Claude Code?

Run `npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a claude-code`. Or copy the skill folder (src/skills/bundled/research in alsk1992/CloddsBot) into .claude/skills/research in your project. Claude Code loads it when a task matches its description.

How do I install Research in Codex?

Run `npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a codex`. Or copy the skill folder (src/skills/bundled/research in alsk1992/CloddsBot) into .agents/skills/research in your project. Codex loads it when a task matches its description.

Can I use Research in Cursor, Gemini CLI or GitHub Copilot?

Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot and OpenCode also load SKILL.md folders. With the skills CLI, run `npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a cursor` (or -a gemini-cli, github-copilot or opencode for the others). To copy it by hand, put the folder in .cursor/skills/research, .gemini/skills/research, .github/skills/research and .opencode/skills/research in your project.

What does Research need to run?

Going by SKILL.md and its folder, Research needs TypeScript for the scripts in its folder. Our summary lists: Node.js.

Does Research access the network?

SKILL.md contains no URLs. Any network use would come from the scripts or tools the agent runs. This is read from the text; nothing was executed.

Is Research safe to install?

Our automated static check of SKILL.md found no risky patterns, such as piping downloads into a shell, reading credential files or hidden Unicode. It is not a guarantee. Review the folder before installing.

What licence does Research use?

Research is published under the MIT licence (the repository's licence). It allows redistribution, so the full SKILL.md is shown on this page.

How many tokens does Research use?

About 451 tokens (SKILL.md is roughly 1.8k characters). Agents keep only the skill's name and description in context until a task matches; then they load SKILL.md in full.

What are the alternatives to Research?

Skills that share tags, products or a category with Research: Prediction Market Oracle Research (affaan-m/ECC, 275k stars), Prediction Market Risk Review (affaan-m/ECC, 275k stars), Marketing Campaign (affaan-m/ECC, 275k stars) and Market Research (alirezarezvani/claude-skills, 28k stars). The comparison table on this page puts their stars, adoption, token cost, safety result and licence side by side.

Who maintains Research?

alsk1992 (a GitHub user) maintains it in alsk1992/CloddsBot, which has 2,903 GitHub stars. The repository holds 116 skills in this directory. The repository was last updated on October 2, 2026.

Source: alsk1992/CloddsBot on GitHub. Facts on this page come from the repository at the commit we read; the author's words are quoted as theirs.

Install Research

Facts

At a glance

What it does

Example prompts

Requirements

What it can do on your machine

Tool permissions

Runs code

Network

Credentials

Context cost

Safety

SKILL.md

Research Skill

Commands

Base Rate Lookup

Resolution Rules

Historical Analogs

Research Areas

Political Markets

Economic Markets

Sports/Events

Examples

Output Format

Files

Used in 1 other repository

Compare with similar skills

Similar skills

More from alsk1992/CloddsBot

Questions about Research