Reverse Dcf

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Expectations

Starts from the current stock price and solves backward: "What growth rate, margin, or WACC does the market currently price in?" Answers: "Is the market too optimistic or too pessimistic about {ticker}?" This is a sanity-check tool used by professional analysts to test whether consensus assumptions are already reflected in the stock price.

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md.

Include the X-Agentii-Trace header on every tool call per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md — carry the _run_id from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned).

Triggers

• reverse DCF {ticker}
• implied growth rate {ticker}
• what does the market price in {ticker}
• market-implied valuation {ticker}
• reverse discounted cash flow {ticker}
• is {ticker} priced for perfection
• market expectations DCF {ticker}
• sanity check valuation {ticker}
• implied assumptions {ticker}
• DCF reverse engineer {ticker}

Defaults

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

structured_only — Reverse DCF uses current price + XBRL financials + consensus estimates.

Retrieval Strategy

See contracts/retrieval.md for the canonical decision tree; skill-specific retrieval detail is in references/methodology.md.

Temporal Scope

Default lookback: 4 fiscal quarter(s); maximum: 12. The default balances recency against the trend window this analysis requires.

Tool Allowlist

Per frontmatter allowed_tools:

• search_xbrl_facts — primary structured financial facts (is_primary default)
• get_realtime_quote — latest market price for valuation cross-checks
• search_earnings_calendar — EPS actual/estimate/surprise + report dates

Protocol

Step-by-step execution detail is in references/methodology.md.

Reverse DCF & PVGO: When quantifying expectations embedded in the current stock price, apply the methodology in references/reverse-dcf-methodology.md. Solve for implied growth/WACC/margin assumptions, decompose enterprise value into Steady-State Value vs. PVGO, and apply the One Job expectations gap framework to structure the variant view. The Reverse DCF is an expectations diagnostic, not a valuation tool.

Output File

Write the final deliverable to {ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_reverse-dcf_{affix}.md.

Output Structure

The deliverable is a structured markdown report written to the path in ## Output File. Full section-by-section template (headings, tables, and field definitions) lives in references/output-structure.md. Required elements:

1. Executive Summary — headline conclusions (≤200 words).
2. Core analysis sections — per this skill's methodology and analyst modes.
3. Data classification — tag findings [FACT] / [DEDUCTED] / [VIEW] per contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.
4. Coverage Gaps & Citations — inline /v/ citations are PRIMARY (immediately after each fact); the bottom Citations section is a non-duplicative roll-up index.
5. Output frontmatter — emit the FR-090 structured block per contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md.

Citations & memory: follow contracts/citation-and-memory.md — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N} link; a bottom Citations section provides a non-duplicative roll-up index; the closing TUI reply includes a compact Key Citations list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable /v/ URLs; and append the run to agentii.md per contracts/agentii-md-schema.md.